FC Sion 0-1 FC Zurich – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates FC Sion at 37% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this FC Sion vs FC Zurich encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
FC Sion host FC Zurich at Stade de Tourbillon in Super League, Regular Season - 14. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 30 October 2022 at 13:15 UTC.
Form Guide
FC Sion — All Games: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Super League outings this season, averaging 1.50 points per game. Last five: L D W L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for FC Sion, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FC Sion's home record at Stade de Tourbillon: 2W 4D 4L from 10 Super League appearances (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.00 lags behind their overall 1.50 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Stade de Tourbillon this season.
Across all Super League games this season, FC Zurich have recorded 0W 5D 5L from 10 outings — 0.50 PPG. Last five: D D D D L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for FC Zurich, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FC Zurich's away record: 2W 3D 5L from 10 road trips in Super League this season (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
On current form, FC Sion have the edge — a 1.00 PPG advantage (1.50 vs 0.50) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
In-Play Data
FC Sion trading profile (49 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games).
FC Zurich trading profile (49 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — FC Sion 61% and FC Zurich 59% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC Sion 57% | FC Zurich 63%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Sion 1.31 xG and FC Zurich 1.18 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Sion attack 0.923 / defence 1.038 | FC Zurich attack 0.786 / defence 0.927. League average goals — home 1.526 / away 1.446. Data: 49 FC Sion games / 49 FC Zurich games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC Sion 37% | Draw 32% | FC Zurich 31%. Fair-value odds: FC Sion 2.70 | Draw 3.12 | FC Zurich 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.49. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.49 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates FC Sion as the most likely outcome at 37% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on FC Sion offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.49 combined xG gives a 45% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: FC Sion 60% | FC Zurich 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Sion vs FC Zurich | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Stade de Tourbillon • Kick-off: Sunday 30 Oct 2022, 13:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Sion 37% | Draw 32% | FC Zurich 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 53% | xG FC Sion 1.31 / FC Zurich 1.18 • Poisson strength factors: FC Sion attack 0.923 / def 1.038 | FC Zurich attack 0.786 / def 0.927 | league avg home 1.526 / away 1.446 • Poisson stance: FC Sion (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.31
FC Sion xG
Expected Goals
1.18
FC Zurich xG
53%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Sion vs FC Zurich kick off?
FC Sion vs FC Zurich kicked off at 13:15 on Sunday 30 October 2022 at Stade de Tourbillon.
What was the final score in FC Sion vs FC Zurich?
FC Sion 0 - 1 FC Zurich.
Where is FC Sion vs FC Zurich being played?
The match is being played at Stade de Tourbillon.
What competition is FC Sion vs FC Zurich part of?
FC Sion vs FC Zurich is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Super League (Switzerland).
Who is favourite to win FC Sion vs FC Zurich?
Our statistical model gives FC Sion a 37% chance of winning, FC Zurich a 31% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making FC Sion the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Sion vs FC Zurich?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both FC Sion and FC Zurich will score (BTTS).
Will FC Sion vs FC Zurich have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Sion and FC Zurich?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are FC Sion and FC Zurich in?
FC Sion (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-D-W-L-D. FC Zurich (all comps): 0W-5D-5L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-D-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
FC Sion's attacking strength (0.92x league average) is weighed against FC Zurich's defensive record (0.93x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.31. The same calculation in reverse, FC Zurich's attack versus FC Sion's defence, projects 1.18 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 49/49 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.5%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.0%), 1-0 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Sion Win
37%
2.72
32%
3.09
31%
3.25
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.9%
Home win
0 – 1
9.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.31
FC Sion xG
Total xG
2.49
1.18
FC Zurich xG
2.72
37%
Home win
3.09
32%
Draw
3.25
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.88
47%
BTTS No
2.14
Clean Sheet
31%
3.25
27%
3.70
Win to Nil
11%
8.84
8%
12.00
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.3 | 9.8 | 5.8 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.9 | 12.8 | 7.6 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 8.4 | 4.9 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 3.7 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Sion vs FC Zurich?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are FC Sion and FC Zurich expected to score?
The model projects 1.31 expected goals for FC Sion and 1.18 for FC Zurich, a combined total of 2.49.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Sion vs FC Zurich?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
FC Sion's recent record stands at 16W 12D 21L from 49 games, a 1.22 PPG return, with L-D-W-L-D in the last five. The sample for FC Sion is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
FC Zurich, meanwhile, have gone 23W 13D 13L across 49 games — 1.67 PPG, with D-D-D-D-L in their last five. The sample for FC Zurich is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours FC Zurich by 0.45 — a real, if not enormous, edge over FC Sion heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, FC Sion have managed 8W 6D 10L from 24 games — 1.25 PPG in front of their own supporters.
FC Zurich's away record stands at 11W 6D 7L across 24 trips, a 1.62 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
FC Sion are averaging 1.35 goals scored and 1.78 conceded per game recently; FC Zurich are on 1.76 scored and 1.43 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FC Sion have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Last 49 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Sion
Blended
FC Zurich
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC Sion and FC Zurich in coming into this match?
FC Sion have gone 16W 12D 21L in their last 49 games (1.22 PPG), while FC Zurich have gone 23W 13D 13L in their last 49 (1.67 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Sion at home or FC Zurich away?
FC Zurich's away record (1.62 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Sion at home: 1.25 PPG; FC Zurich away: 1.62 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between FC Sion and FC Zurich runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. They last met on 14 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
FC Sion's record when hosting FC Zurich specifically: 2W 1D 3L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
FC Sion
2
Draws
4
FC Zurich
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Sion and FC Zurich?
From 10 meetings on record, FC Sion have won 4, FC Zurich have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did FC Sion and FC Zurich last play each other?
They last met on 14 March 2026, when FC Zurich 1-2 FC Sion.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
FC Sion are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
FC Zurich are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC Sion 50%, FC Zurich 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (FC Sion) and 54% (FC Zurich).
On the defensive side: FC Sion have failed to score in 29% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Sion home games / FC Zurich away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC Sion play FC Zurich?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of FC Sion's recent matches and 58% of FC Zurich's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is FC Sion vs FC Zurich usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of FC Sion's recent games and 54% of FC Zurich's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do FC Sion and FC Zurich tend to score early?
FC Sion have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, FC Zurich in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as FC Zurich defy the odds to beat FC Sion 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC Zurich beat FC Sion 0-1 at Stade de Tourbillon, Regular Season - 14, in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Sion 1.31 xG and FC Zurich 1.18 xG, a combined 2.49. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. FC Sion fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Sion attack 0.92 / defence 1.04 against FC Zurich attack 0.79 / defence 0.93, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Sion 37% | Draw 32% | FC Zurich 31%, with FC Sion to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual FC Zurich win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 74% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Sion 57%, FC Zurich 63%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Sion's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not.
FC Zurich's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, FC Zurich arrived the stronger side — 1.67 PPG against 1.22. That form edge translated into the three points. FC Sion (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.17 scoring average — below par going forward. FC Zurich (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.42 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.