FC Sion 1-3 FC Winterthur – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates FC Sion at 51% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this FC Sion vs FC Winterthur encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stade de Tourbillon plays host to FC Sion versus FC Winterthur in Super League, Regular Season - 9. Kick-off: Sunday 2 October 2022 at 13:15 UTC.
Form & Momentum
FC Sion have collected 1.80 PPG across 10 Super League outings this season: 5W 3D 2L. Last five: W D L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for FC Sion, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FC Sion's form when playing at home: 1W 4D 5L across 10 games at Stade de Tourbillon this term (0.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.70 lags behind their overall 1.80 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Stade de Tourbillon this season.
FC Winterthur's overall Super League record this term: 0W 2D 6L from 8 games (0.25 PPG). Last five: L D L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.50 per game is modest, conceding 2.88 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.88 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. This season is still relatively young for FC Winterthur, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FC Winterthur's away record: 0W 0D 3L from 3 road trips in Super League this season (0.00 PPG).
The form ledger tips toward FC Sion. A 1.55 PPG lead over FC Winterthur (1.80 vs 0.25) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
Trading & In-Play
FC Sion — key trading statistics (8 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games; they fail to score in 38% of games.
FC Winterthur — key trading statistics (8 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games; Over 3.5 in 38%; they fail to score in 50% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FC Sion 50% versus FC Winterthur 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC Sion 75% | FC Winterthur 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Sion 1.59 xG and FC Winterthur 0.87 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Sion attack 0.831 / defence 1.014 | FC Winterthur attack 0.575 / defence 1.149. League average goals — home 1.667 / away 1.496. Data: 44 FC Sion games / 8 FC Winterthur games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC Sion 51% | Draw 32% | FC Winterthur 17%. Fair-value odds: FC Sion 1.96 | Draw 3.12 | FC Winterthur 5.88. FC Sion hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (32%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.47. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.47 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is FC Sion at 51% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on FC Sion if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.47 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 45% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 50% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: FC Sion 50% | FC Winterthur 0% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Sion vs FC Winterthur | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Stade de Tourbillon • Kick-off: Sunday 2 Oct 2022, 13:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Sion 51% | Draw 32% | FC Winterthur 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 50% | xG FC Sion 1.59 / FC Winterthur 0.87 • Poisson strength factors: FC Sion attack 0.831 / def 1.014 | FC Winterthur attack 0.575 / def 1.149 | league avg home 1.667 / away 1.496 • Poisson stance: FC Sion (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.59
FC Sion xG
Expected Goals
0.87
FC Winterthur xG
50%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Sion vs FC Winterthur kick off?
FC Sion vs FC Winterthur kicked off at 13:15 on Sunday 2 October 2022 at Stade de Tourbillon.
What was the final score in FC Sion vs FC Winterthur?
FC Sion 1 - 3 FC Winterthur.
Where is FC Sion vs FC Winterthur being played?
The match is being played at Stade de Tourbillon.
What competition is FC Sion vs FC Winterthur part of?
FC Sion vs FC Winterthur is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Super League (Switzerland).
Who is favourite to win FC Sion vs FC Winterthur?
Our statistical model gives FC Sion a 51% chance of winning, FC Winterthur a 17% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making FC Sion the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Sion vs FC Winterthur?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both FC Sion and FC Winterthur will score (BTTS).
Will FC Sion vs FC Winterthur have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Sion and FC Winterthur?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are FC Sion and FC Winterthur in?
FC Sion (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-D-L-W-W. FC Winterthur (all comps): 0W-2D-6L in 8 | 0.25 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 2.88 | L5 L-D-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from FC Sion's attack rating (0.83) and FC Winterthur's defence rating (1.15), the model arrives at 1.59 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — FC Winterthur's attack (0.57x) against FC Sion's defence (1.01x) — and the away total comes out at 0.87.
These ratings are built from 44/8 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.3%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.0%), 2-0 (10.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Sion Win
51%
1.97
32%
3.11
17%
5.87
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
2 – 0
10.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.59
FC Sion xG
Total xG
2.47
0.87
FC Winterthur xG
1.97
51%
Home win
3.11
32%
Draw
5.87
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.00
50%
BTTS No
2.00
Clean Sheet
42%
2.39
20%
4.92
Win to Nil
21%
4.71
3%
28.88
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.5 | 7.4 | 3.2 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 13.5 | 11.8 | 5.2 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.8 | 9.4 | 4.1 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 5.7 | 5.0 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.3 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Sion vs FC Winterthur?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are FC Sion and FC Winterthur expected to score?
The model projects 1.59 expected goals for FC Sion and 0.87 for FC Winterthur, a combined total of 2.47.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Sion vs FC Winterthur?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 8 outings, FC Sion have picked up 1.75 PPG on a 4W 2D 2L record — W-D-L-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for FC Sion is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
FC Winterthur's form line: 0W 2D 6L from 8 games, 0.25 PPG, last five L-D-L-L-L. The sample for FC Winterthur is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, FC Sion are the form team by 1.50 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against FC Winterthur.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, FC Sion have posted 1.67 PPG from 3 outings (1W 2D 0L).
On the road, FC Winterthur have gone 0W 0D 3L from 3 away games — 0.00 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, FC Sion come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
FC Sion are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game recently; FC Winterthur are on 0.50 scored and 2.88 conceded.
Last 8 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Sion
Blended
FC Winterthur
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC Sion and FC Winterthur in coming into this match?
FC Sion have gone 4W 2D 2L in their last 8 games (1.75 PPG), while FC Winterthur have gone 0W 2D 6L in their last 8 (0.25 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Sion at home or FC Winterthur away?
FC Sion's home record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Sion at home: 1.67 PPG; FC Winterthur away: 0.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since October 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. They last met on 7 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, FC Sion have gone 2W 1D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against FC Winterthur — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
FC Sion
2
Draws
4
FC Winterthur
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Sion and FC Winterthur?
From 10 meetings on record, FC Sion have won 4, FC Winterthur have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did FC Sion and FC Winterthur last play each other?
They last met on 7 March 2026, when FC Sion 1-1 FC Winterthur.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
FC Sion are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
FC Winterthur are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 67% (FC Sion) and 0% (FC Winterthur) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (FC Sion) and 33% (FC Winterthur).
On the defensive side: FC Sion keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; FC Sion have failed to score in 33% of games; FC Winterthur in 100%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Sion home games / FC Winterthur away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC Sion play FC Winterthur?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 67% of FC Sion's recent matches and 0% of FC Winterthur's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is FC Sion vs FC Winterthur usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 67% of FC Sion's recent games and 33% of FC Winterthur's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do FC Sion and FC Winterthur tend to score early?
FC Sion have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, FC Winterthur in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
FC Winterthur cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over FC Sion.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC Winterthur beat FC Sion 1-3 at Stade de Tourbillon, Regular Season - 9, in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Sion 1.59 xG and FC Winterthur 0.87 xG, a combined 2.47. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. FC Winterthur outscored their 0.87 projection by 2.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Sion attack 0.83 / defence 1.01 against FC Winterthur attack 0.57 / defence 1.15, drawn from 44/8 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Sion 51% | Draw 32% | FC Winterthur 17%, with FC Sion to win its most likely call at 51%. Instead the game produced a FC Winterthur win, an outcome the model had rated at just 17% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. Over 3.5 was 24% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Sion 75%, FC Winterthur 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Sion's trading profile (8 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
FC Winterthur's trading profile (8 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, FC Sion arrived the stronger side — 1.75 PPG against 0.25. Form was overturned, with FC Winterthur winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. FC Sion (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. FC Winterthur (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.