FC Sion 2-1 FC Basel 1893 – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates FC Basel 1893 at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this FC Sion vs FC Basel 1893 fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
FC Sion host FC Basel 1893 at Stade de Tourbillon in Super League, Regular Season - 7. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 3 September 2022 at 17:00 UTC.
Form Guide
FC Sion — All Games: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Super League outings this season, averaging 1.50 points per game. Last five: L D W D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. FC Sion have played only a handful of Super League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Stade de Tourbillon, FC Sion have gone 1W 4D 5L this season (10 games, 0.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.70 lags behind their overall 1.50 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Stade de Tourbillon this season.
Across all Super League games this season, FC Basel 1893 have recorded 2W 6D 2L from 10 outings — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D D D L W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. FC Basel 1893 have played only a handful of Super League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
FC Basel 1893 away from home this season: 3W 5D 2L from 10 away games — 1.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.50 PPG (FC Sion) versus 1.20 (FC Basel 1893). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
In-Play Profile
FC Sion in-play tendencies (41 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
FC Basel 1893 in-play tendencies (41 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FC Sion 58% versus FC Basel 1893 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC Sion 56% | FC Basel 1893 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Sion 1.16 xG and FC Basel 1893 1.78 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Sion attack 0.768 / defence 1.101 | FC Basel 1893 attack 1.146 / defence 0.954. League average goals — home 1.588 / away 1.414. FC Sion's attack strength of 0.768 is below the league average — the 1.16 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 42 FC Sion games / 41 FC Basel 1893 games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC Sion 22% | Draw 30% | FC Basel 1893 49%. Fair-value odds: FC Sion 4.55 | Draw 3.33 | FC Basel 1893 2.04. FC Basel 1893 hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 2.95. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.95 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.16 / 1.78) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates FC Basel 1893 as the most likely outcome at 49% — moderate model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on FC Basel 1893 offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.95 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 56% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 60%. Form rates are neutral: FC Sion 40% | FC Basel 1893 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Sion vs FC Basel 1893 | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Stade de Tourbillon • Kick-off: Saturday 3 Sep 2022, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Sion 22% | Draw 30% | FC Basel 1893 49% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 60% | xG FC Sion 1.16 / FC Basel 1893 1.78 • Poisson strength factors: FC Sion attack 0.768 / def 1.101 | FC Basel 1893 attack 1.146 / def 0.954 | league avg home 1.588 / away 1.414 • Poisson stance: FC Basel 1893 (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.16
FC Sion xG
Expected Goals
1.78
FC Basel 1893 xG
60%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Sion vs FC Basel 1893 kick off?
FC Sion vs FC Basel 1893 kicked off at 17:00 on Saturday 3 September 2022 at Stade de Tourbillon.
What was the final score in FC Sion vs FC Basel 1893?
FC Sion 2 - 1 FC Basel 1893.
Where is FC Sion vs FC Basel 1893 being played?
The match is being played at Stade de Tourbillon.
What competition is FC Sion vs FC Basel 1893 part of?
FC Sion vs FC Basel 1893 is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Super League (Switzerland).
Who is favourite to win FC Sion vs FC Basel 1893?
Our statistical model gives FC Sion a 22% chance of winning, FC Basel 1893 a 49% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making FC Basel 1893 the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Sion vs FC Basel 1893?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both FC Sion and FC Basel 1893 will score (BTTS).
Will FC Sion vs FC Basel 1893 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Sion and FC Basel 1893?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are FC Sion and FC Basel 1893 in?
FC Sion (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-D-W-D-L. FC Basel 1893 (all comps): 2W-6D-2L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-D-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
FC Sion's attacking strength (0.77x league average) is weighed against FC Basel 1893's defensive record (0.95x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.16. The same calculation in reverse, FC Basel 1893's attack versus FC Sion's defence, projects 1.78 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 42/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.3%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.7%), 0-2 (8.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Basel 1893 Win
22%
4.64
30%
3.35
49%
2.05
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.7%
Away win
0 – 1
9.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.16
FC Sion xG
Total xG
2.95
1.78
FC Basel 1893 xG
4.64
22%
Home win
3.35
30%
Draw
2.05
49%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.65
40%
BTTS No
2.53
Clean Sheet
17%
5.96
31%
3.20
Win to Nil
4%
27.68
15%
6.57
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.2 | 9.4 | 8.4 | 5.0 | 2.2 | 0.8 |
| 1 | 6.1 | 10.9 | 9.7 | 5.8 | 2.6 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 3.5 | 6.3 | 5.7 | 3.4 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 2.5 | 2.2 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Sion vs FC Basel 1893?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.3%.
How many goals are FC Sion and FC Basel 1893 expected to score?
The model projects 1.16 expected goals for FC Sion and 1.78 for FC Basel 1893, a combined total of 2.95.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Sion vs FC Basel 1893?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
FC Sion come into this having played 41 games, going 13W 10D 18L for 1.20 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-W-D-L. It's still early in the season for FC Sion, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, FC Basel 1893 sit at 1.66 PPG from 41 outings (16W 20D 5L), a run that reads D-D-D-L-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for FC Basel 1893, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
FC Basel 1893 carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.46 PPG clear of FC Sion — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
FC Sion's home form reads 6W 6D 8L across 20 games on their own ground, a 1.20 PPG return.
Away from home, FC Basel 1893 have taken 1.70 points per game from 20 outings (8W 10D 2L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, FC Basel 1893 come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
FC Sion are averaging 1.29 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game recently; FC Basel 1893 are on 1.85 scored and 1.15 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FC Basel 1893 in 61%.
Last 41 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Sion
Early Season
FC Basel 1893
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC Sion and FC Basel 1893 in coming into this match?
FC Sion have gone 13W 10D 18L in their last 41 games (1.20 PPG), while FC Basel 1893 have gone 16W 20D 5L in their last 41 (1.66 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Sion at home or FC Basel 1893 away?
FC Basel 1893's away record (1.70 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Sion at home: 1.20 PPG; FC Basel 1893 away: 1.70 PPG.
Have FC Sion or FC Basel 1893 been keeping clean sheets recently?
FC Sion have kept a clean sheet in 22% of their recent games, FC Basel 1893 in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between FC Sion and FC Basel 1893 runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. They last met on 26 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
FC Sion go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 26 Jan 2025, when FC Basel 1893 won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
FC Sion's record when hosting FC Basel 1893 specifically: 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
FC Sion
3
Draws
5
FC Basel 1893
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Sion and FC Basel 1893?
From 10 meetings on record, FC Sion have won 2, FC Basel 1893 have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did FC Sion and FC Basel 1893 last play each other?
They last met on 26 April 2026, when FC Basel 1893 0-2 FC Sion.
Who has won more matches between FC Sion and FC Basel 1893?
FC Basel 1893 have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
FC Sion are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
FC Basel 1893 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC Sion 45%, FC Basel 1893 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (FC Sion) and 50% (FC Basel 1893).
On the defensive side: FC Basel 1893 in 40%; FC Sion have failed to score in 35% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Sion home games / FC Basel 1893 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC Sion play FC Basel 1893?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 45% of FC Sion's recent matches and 60% of FC Basel 1893's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is FC Sion vs FC Basel 1893 usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of FC Sion's recent games and 50% of FC Basel 1893's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do FC Sion and FC Basel 1893 tend to score early?
FC Sion have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, FC Basel 1893 in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as FC Sion defy the odds to beat FC Basel 1893 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC Sion beat FC Basel 1893 2-1 at Stade de Tourbillon, Regular Season - 7, in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Sion 1.16 xG and FC Basel 1893 1.78 xG, a combined 2.95. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. FC Sion beat their projection by 0.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Sion attack 0.77 / defence 1.10 against FC Basel 1893 attack 1.15 / defence 0.95, drawn from 42/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Sion 22% | Draw 30% | FC Basel 1893 49%, with FC Basel 1893 to win its most likely call at 49%. Instead the game produced a FC Sion win, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Sion 56%, FC Basel 1893 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Sion's trading profile (41 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
FC Basel 1893's trading profile (41 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, FC Basel 1893 arrived the stronger side — 1.66 PPG against 1.20. Form was overturned, with FC Sion winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. FC Sion (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.10 average — above their attacking norm. FC Basel 1893 (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.80 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.20 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.