BSC Young Boys 1-1 Yverdon Sport – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates BSC Young Boys at 74% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this BSC Young Boys vs Yverdon Sport encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Yverdon Sport make the trip to Stadion Wankdorf to face BSC Young Boys in Super League (matchday 31). The match kicks off on Saturday 5 April 2025 at 20:30 UK time.
Form & Momentum
BSC Young Boys have collected 2.40 PPG across their last 10 games: 8W 0D 2L. Last five: L W W W W. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
At home, BSC Young Boys have gone 9W 1D 0L in their last 10 home games (2.80 PPG). They are averaging 2.60 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Yverdon Sport's record over their last 10 games: 4W 2D 4L (1.40 PPG). Last five: D W W D L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 2.00. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Yverdon Sport away from home: 2W 3D 5L from their last 10 away games — 0.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The points-per-game gap of 1.00 in BSC Young Boys's favour (2.40 vs 1.40) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (from BSC Young Boys's last 10 home games and Yverdon Sport's last 10 away games) — BSC Young Boys have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Yverdon Sport in 70%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 5 H2H matches in our data, BSC Young Boys edge it 2 wins to 0, with 3 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage.
The 5 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 4.2 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 5 Feb 2025, ended BSC Young Boys 6–1 Yverdon Sport — a BSC Young Boys win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 4.2 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
BSC Young Boys goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 68 games, 34 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; of the 17 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 35%; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (home games).
Yverdon Sport goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 68 games, 34 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 79% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%; they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — BSC Young Boys 53% versus Yverdon Sport 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (BSC Young Boys 54% | Yverdon Sport 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects BSC Young Boys 2.56 xG and Yverdon Sport 0.81 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: BSC Young Boys attack 1.329 / defence 0.690 | Yverdon Sport attack 0.927 / defence 1.279. League average goals — home 1.503 / away 1.272. BSC Young Boys carry an above-average attack rating of 1.329 — their 2.56 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Yverdon Sport's defence rating of 1.279 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing BSC Young Boys's projected output up. BSC Young Boys have a tight defence (rating 0.690), which is pulling Yverdon Sport's projected output down. Data: built from BSC Young Boys's last 63 games and Yverdon Sport's last 63.
Result probabilities: BSC Young Boys 74% | Draw 17% | Yverdon Sport 9%. Fair-value odds: BSC Young Boys 1.35 | Draw 5.90 | Yverdon Sport 11.27. The model has a clear lean to BSC Young Boys (74%) — a 57pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 65% | BTTS Yes probability 52% | Total xG 3.37. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 65% — a total xG of 3.37 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 52% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, BSC Young Boys are the pick at 74% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.37 combined xG gives a 65% probability to Over 2.5 — strong conviction, supported by recent form (BSC Young Boys's last 10 home games and Yverdon Sport's last 10 away games) averaging 3.2 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 4.2 goals per game across 5 H2H matches.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 52%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: BSC Young Boys 60% (last 10 home games) | Yverdon Sport 70% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: BSC Young Boys vs Yverdon Sport | Competition: Super League, matchday 31 | Venue: Stadion Wankdorf • Kick-off: Saturday 5 April 2025 at 20:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: BSC Young Boys 74% | Draw 17% | Yverdon Sport 9% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 65% (Under 35%) | BTTS Yes 52% (No 48%) | xG BSC Young Boys 2.56 / Yverdon Sport 0.81 • Poisson strength factors: BSC Young Boys attack 1.329 / def 0.690 | Yverdon Sport attack 0.927 / def 1.279 | league avg home 1.503 / away 1.272 • Poisson stance: BSC Young Boys (74%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.56
BSC Young Boys xG
Expected Goals
0.81
Yverdon Sport xG
52%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
65%
Over 2.5
44%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ BSC Young Boys vs Yverdon Sport FAQs
What time does BSC Young Boys vs Yverdon Sport kick off?
BSC Young Boys vs Yverdon Sport kicked off at 20:30 UK time on Saturday 5 April 2025 at Stadion Wankdorf.
What was the final score in BSC Young Boys vs Yverdon Sport?
BSC Young Boys 1 - 1 Yverdon Sport.
Where is BSC Young Boys vs Yverdon Sport being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Wankdorf.
What competition is BSC Young Boys vs Yverdon Sport part of?
BSC Young Boys vs Yverdon Sport is a Super League fixture (matchday 31) (Switzerland).
Who is favourite to win BSC Young Boys vs Yverdon Sport?
Our statistical model gives BSC Young Boys a 74% chance of winning, Yverdon Sport a 9% chance, and a 17% chance of a draw — making BSC Young Boys the favourite.
Will both teams score in BSC Young Boys vs Yverdon Sport?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both BSC Young Boys and Yverdon Sport will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will BSC Young Boys vs Yverdon Sport have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 65%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
BSC Young Boys's attacking strength (1.33x league average) is weighed against Yverdon Sport's defensive record (1.28x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.56. Flip it around — Yverdon Sport's attack (0.93x) against BSC Young Boys's defence (0.69x) — and the away total comes out at 0.81.
These ratings are built from BSC Young Boys's last 63 games and Yverdon Sport's last 63 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-0, at 11.2%. Close behind: 3-0 (9.6%), 2-1 (9.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
BSC Young Boys Win
74%
1.35
17%
5.90
9%
11.27
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
11.2%
Home win
Most likely
3 – 0
9.6%
Home win
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.56
BSC Young Boys xG
Total xG
3.37
0.81
Yverdon Sport xG
1.35
74%
Home win
5.90
17%
Draw
11.27
9%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
65%
Over 2.5
1.54
35%
Under 2.5
2.86
44%
Over 3.5
2.27
56%
Under 3.5
1.79
25%
Over 4.5
4.00
75%
Under 4.5
1.33
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.92
48%
BTTS No
2.09
Clean Sheet
44%
2.26
8%
12.88
Win to Nil
33%
3.04
1%
145.26
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.4 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 8.8 | 7.2 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.2 | 9.1 | 3.7 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 9.6 | 7.8 | 3.2 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 6.1 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 3.1 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ BSC Young Boys vs Yverdon Sport Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for BSC Young Boys vs Yverdon Sport?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.2%.
How many goals are BSC Young Boys and Yverdon Sport expected to score?
The model projects 2.56 expected goals for BSC Young Boys and 0.81 for Yverdon Sport, a combined total of 3.37.
How confident is the prediction model for BSC Young Boys vs Yverdon Sport?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 74%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
BSC Young Boys's recent record stands at 37W 15D 16L from 68 games, a 1.85 PPG return, with L-W-W-W-W in the last five.
Yverdon Sport, meanwhile, have gone 21W 16D 31L across 68 games — 1.16 PPG, with D-W-W-D-L in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours BSC Young Boys by 0.69 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Yverdon Sport heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, BSC Young Boys have managed 25W 5D 4L from their last 34 home games — 2.35 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.85 PPG overall — BSC Young Boys are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Yverdon Sport's away record stands at 3W 9D 22L across their last 34 away games, a 0.53 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.16 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Yverdon Sport's recent record.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, BSC Young Boys come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
BSC Young Boys are averaging 1.79 goals scored and 1.01 conceded per game recently; Yverdon Sport are on 1.19 scored and 1.76 conceded.
Last 68 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
BSC Young Boys
Current Season
Yverdon Sport
Current Season
BSC Young Boys (Home) vs Yverdon Sport (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
BSC Young Boys
Current Season
Yverdon Sport
Current Season
❓ BSC Young Boys vs Yverdon Sport Form FAQs
What form are BSC Young Boys and Yverdon Sport in coming into this match?
BSC Young Boys have gone 37W 15D 16L in their last 68 games (1.85 PPG), while Yverdon Sport have gone 21W 16D 31L in their last 68 (1.16 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — BSC Young Boys at home or Yverdon Sport away?
BSC Young Boys's home record (2.35 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — BSC Young Boys at home: 2.35 PPG; Yverdon Sport away: 0.53 PPG.
Have BSC Young Boys or Yverdon Sport been keeping clean sheets recently?
BSC Young Boys have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Yverdon Sport in 18%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 6 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to July 2023 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Super League. The most recent in our data was on 5 April 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: BSC Young Boys won BSC Young Boys 6-1 Yverdon Sport on 5 Feb 2025, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, BSC Young Boys have gone 2W 1D 0L from the 3 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Yverdon Sport — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
BSC Young Boys
4
Draws
0
Yverdon Sport
Recent Meetings
❓ BSC Young Boys vs Yverdon Sport H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between BSC Young Boys and Yverdon Sport?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, BSC Young Boys have won 2, Yverdon Sport have won 0, and 4 have been drawn.
When did BSC Young Boys and Yverdon Sport last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 5 April 2025: BSC Young Boys 1-1 Yverdon Sport.
Who has won more matches between BSC Young Boys and Yverdon Sport?
BSC Young Boys have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
BSC Young Boys are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 57% of those situations.
Yverdon Sport are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — BSC Young Boys 56%, Yverdon Sport 65% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 65% (BSC Young Boys) and 50% (Yverdon Sport). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 35% and 35% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: BSC Young Boys keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; Yverdon Sport in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = BSC Young Boys home games / Yverdon Sport away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ BSC Young Boys vs Yverdon Sport Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in BSC Young Boys and Yverdon Sport matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 56% of BSC Young Boys's games and 65% of Yverdon Sport's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are BSC Young Boys and Yverdon Sport matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 65% of BSC Young Boys's matches and 50% of Yverdon Sport's.
Do BSC Young Boys and Yverdon Sport matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 71% of BSC Young Boys's recent matches and 79% of Yverdon Sport's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
BSC Young Boys and Yverdon Sport share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadion Wankdorf, Regular Season - 31, as BSC Young Boys and Yverdon Sport drew 1-1 in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting BSC Young Boys 2.56 xG and Yverdon Sport 0.81 xG, a combined 3.37. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. BSC Young Boys fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of BSC Young Boys attack 1.33 / defence 0.69 against Yverdon Sport attack 0.93 / defence 1.28, drawn from 63/63 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it BSC Young Boys 74% | Draw 17% | Yverdon Sport 9%, with BSC Young Boys to win its most likely call at 74%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 17% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 44% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (BSC Young Boys 54%, Yverdon Sport 57%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
BSC Young Boys's trading profile (68 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Yverdon Sport's trading profile (68 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, BSC Young Boys arrived the stronger side — 1.85 PPG against 1.16. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. BSC Young Boys (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.41 scoring average — below par going forward. Yverdon Sport (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.18 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.