BSC Young Boys 3-1 FC ST. Gallen – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates BSC Young Boys at 46% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as BSC Young Boys face FC ST. Gallen.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadion Wankdorf plays host to BSC Young Boys versus FC ST. Gallen in Super League (matchday 16). Kick-off: Sunday 1 December 2024 at 15:30 UK time.
Form & Momentum
BSC Young Boys have collected 1.50 PPG across their last 10 games: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: L W D W D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters, BSC Young Boys have posted 5W 2D 3L from their last 10 home games — 1.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
FC ST. Gallen (all games): 2W 5D 3L across their last 10 — 1.10 points per game. Last five: D D D W D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.40. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.
FC ST. Gallen's form when playing away from home: 4W 2D 4L across their last 10 road games (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.50 for BSC Young Boys, 1.10 for FC ST. Gallen — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (from BSC Young Boys's last 10 home games and FC ST. Gallen's last 10 away games) — both teams have scored in 70% of BSC Young Boys's games and 70% of FC ST. Gallen's. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H History
Neither side has dominated the 3 H2H matches in our data: 1 wins for BSC Young Boys, 1 for FC ST. Gallen and 1 draw — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 4.0 per game across the 3 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 28 Jul 2024, ended BSC Young Boys 0–4 FC ST. Gallen — a FC ST. Gallen win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 4.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
BSC Young Boys goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 53 games, 26 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; of the 16 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 38%; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
FC ST. Gallen goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 53 games, 26 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 69% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; of the 20 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 45%; of the 11 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 36%; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — BSC Young Boys 55% versus FC ST. Gallen 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (BSC Young Boys 55% | FC ST. Gallen 53%). Note also that FC ST. Gallen surrender HT leads in 45% of cases while BSC Young Boys recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 38% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects BSC Young Boys 1.70 xG and FC ST. Gallen 1.29 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: BSC Young Boys attack 1.113 / defence 0.992 | FC ST. Gallen attack 1.063 / defence 0.999. League average goals — home 1.526 / away 1.229. Data: built from BSC Young Boys's last 48 games and FC ST. Gallen's last 48.
Result probabilities: BSC Young Boys 46% | Draw 25% | FC ST. Gallen 29%. Fair-value odds: BSC Young Boys 2.16 | Draw 4.00 | FC ST. Gallen 3.49. BSC Young Boys hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS Yes probability 60% | Total xG 2.99. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.99 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% — both xG figures (1.70 / 1.29) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates BSC Young Boys as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on BSC Young Boys if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.99 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 57% — strong conviction, supported by recent form (BSC Young Boys's last 10 home games and FC ST. Gallen's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 4.0 goals per game across 3 H2H matches.
Poisson assigns a 60% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: BSC Young Boys 70% (last 10 home games) | FC ST. Gallen 70% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: BSC Young Boys vs FC ST. Gallen | Competition: Super League, matchday 16 | Venue: Stadion Wankdorf • Kick-off: Sunday 1 December 2024 at 15:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: BSC Young Boys 46% | Draw 25% | FC ST. Gallen 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% (Under 43%) | BTTS Yes 60% (No 40%) | xG BSC Young Boys 1.70 / FC ST. Gallen 1.29 • Poisson strength factors: BSC Young Boys attack 1.113 / def 0.992 | FC ST. Gallen attack 1.063 / def 0.999 | league avg home 1.526 / away 1.229 • Poisson stance: BSC Young Boys (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.70
BSC Young Boys xG
Expected Goals
1.29
FC ST. Gallen xG
60%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ BSC Young Boys vs FC ST. Gallen FAQs
What time does BSC Young Boys vs FC ST. Gallen kick off?
BSC Young Boys vs FC ST. Gallen kicked off at 15:30 UK time on Sunday 1 December 2024 at Stadion Wankdorf.
What was the final score in BSC Young Boys vs FC ST. Gallen?
BSC Young Boys 3 - 1 FC ST. Gallen.
Where is BSC Young Boys vs FC ST. Gallen being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Wankdorf.
What competition is BSC Young Boys vs FC ST. Gallen part of?
BSC Young Boys vs FC ST. Gallen is a Super League fixture (matchday 16) (Switzerland).
Who is favourite to win BSC Young Boys vs FC ST. Gallen?
Our statistical model gives BSC Young Boys a 46% chance of winning, FC ST. Gallen a 29% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making BSC Young Boys the favourite.
Will both teams score in BSC Young Boys vs FC ST. Gallen?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both BSC Young Boys and FC ST. Gallen will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will BSC Young Boys vs FC ST. Gallen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from BSC Young Boys's attack rating (1.11) and FC ST. Gallen's defence rating (1.00), the model arrives at 1.70 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — FC ST. Gallen's attack (1.06x) against BSC Young Boys's defence (0.99x) — and the away total comes out at 1.29.
These ratings are built from BSC Young Boys's last 48 games and FC ST. Gallen's last 48 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.5%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.4%), 2-0 (7.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
BSC Young Boys Win
46%
2.16
25%
4.00
29%
3.49
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.0%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
1 – 0
8.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.70
BSC Young Boys xG
Total xG
2.99
1.29
FC ST. Gallen xG
2.16
46%
Home win
4.00
25%
Draw
3.49
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.67
40%
BTTS No
2.49
Clean Sheet
27%
3.65
18%
5.46
Win to Nil
13%
7.89
5%
19.02
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.0 | 6.5 | 4.2 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.5 | 11.0 | 7.1 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 9.4 | 6.1 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.1 | 5.3 | 3.4 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 2.2 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ BSC Young Boys vs FC ST. Gallen Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for BSC Young Boys vs FC ST. Gallen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.5%.
How many goals are BSC Young Boys and FC ST. Gallen expected to score?
The model projects 1.70 expected goals for BSC Young Boys and 1.29 for FC ST. Gallen, a combined total of 2.99.
How confident is the prediction model for BSC Young Boys vs FC ST. Gallen?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
BSC Young Boys come into this having played 53 games, going 27W 13D 13L for 1.77 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-D-W-D.
On the other side, FC ST. Gallen sit at 1.47 PPG from 53 outings (21W 15D 17L), a run that reads D-D-D-W-D across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.77 PPG for BSC Young Boys against 1.47 for FC ST. Gallen. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
BSC Young Boys's home form reads 18W 4D 4L across their last 26 home games, a 2.23 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.77 PPG overall — BSC Young Boys are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, FC ST. Gallen have taken 1.08 points per game from their last 26 away games (7W 7D 12L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, BSC Young Boys come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
BSC Young Boys are averaging 1.79 goals scored and 1.09 conceded per game recently; FC ST. Gallen are on 1.60 scored and 1.32 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FC ST. Gallen in 62%.
Last 53 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
BSC Young Boys
Blended
FC ST. Gallen
Blended
BSC Young Boys (Home) vs FC ST. Gallen (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
BSC Young Boys
Blended
FC ST. Gallen
Blended
❓ BSC Young Boys vs FC ST. Gallen Form FAQs
What form are BSC Young Boys and FC ST. Gallen in coming into this match?
BSC Young Boys have gone 27W 13D 13L in their last 53 games (1.77 PPG), while FC ST. Gallen have gone 21W 15D 17L in their last 53 (1.47 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — BSC Young Boys at home or FC ST. Gallen away?
BSC Young Boys's home record (2.23 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — BSC Young Boys at home: 2.23 PPG; FC ST. Gallen away: 1.08 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 10 H2H matches between BSC Young Boys and FC ST. Gallen, the earliest from April 2024. All of them came in Super League. The most recent was as recently as 24 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: FC ST. Gallen won FC ST. Gallen 4-0 BSC Young Boys on 28 Jul 2024, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, BSC Young Boys have gone 4W 0D 2L from the 6 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against FC ST. Gallen — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
BSC Young Boys
1
Draws
4
FC ST. Gallen
Recent Meetings
❓ BSC Young Boys vs FC ST. Gallen H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between BSC Young Boys and FC ST. Gallen?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, BSC Young Boys have won 5, FC ST. Gallen have won 4, and 1 has been drawn.
When did BSC Young Boys and FC ST. Gallen last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 24 October 2026: BSC Young Boys 2-0 FC ST. Gallen.
Who has won more matches between BSC Young Boys and FC ST. Gallen?
BSC Young Boys have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
BSC Young Boys are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 57% of those situations.
FC ST. Gallen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 38% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — BSC Young Boys 58%, FC ST. Gallen 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 65% (BSC Young Boys) and 38% (FC ST. Gallen).
On the defensive side: BSC Young Boys keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; FC ST. Gallen in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = BSC Young Boys home games / FC ST. Gallen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ BSC Young Boys vs FC ST. Gallen Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in BSC Young Boys and FC ST. Gallen matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 58% of BSC Young Boys's games and 54% of FC ST. Gallen's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are BSC Young Boys and FC ST. Gallen matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 65% of BSC Young Boys's recent games and 38% of FC ST. Gallen's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do BSC Young Boys and FC ST. Gallen matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 73% of BSC Young Boys's recent matches and 69% of FC ST. Gallen's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
BSC Young Boys cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over FC ST. Gallen.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
BSC Young Boys beat FC ST. Gallen 3-1 at Stadion Wankdorf, Regular Season - 16, in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting BSC Young Boys 1.70 xG and FC ST. Gallen 1.29 xG, a combined 2.99. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. BSC Young Boys beat their projection by 1.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of BSC Young Boys attack 1.11 / defence 0.99 against FC ST. Gallen attack 1.06 / defence 1.00, drawn from 48/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it BSC Young Boys 46% | Draw 25% | FC ST. Gallen 29%, with BSC Young Boys to win its most likely call at 46%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. Over 3.5 was 35% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (BSC Young Boys 55%, FC ST. Gallen 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
BSC Young Boys's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
FC ST. Gallen's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — BSC Young Boys 1.77 PPG, FC ST. Gallen 1.47 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the BSC Young Boys win broke the near-deadlock. FC ST. Gallen (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.42 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.