BSC Young Boys 3-1 FC Basel 1893 – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates BSC Young Boys at 54% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this BSC Young Boys vs FC Basel 1893 encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
BSC Young Boys and FC Basel 1893 meet at Stadion Wankdorf in Super League, Regular Season - 14. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 30 October 2022 at 15:30 UTC.
Current Form
BSC Young Boys's overall Super League record this term: 6W 3D 1L from 10 games (2.10 PPG). Last five: W W D W D. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for BSC Young Boys, so this record blends games from this season and last.
BSC Young Boys at Stadion Wankdorf this season: 7W 3D 0L from 10 home games — 2.40 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.60 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
FC Basel 1893 have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 Super League outings this season: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: W L D D W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.10. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for FC Basel 1893, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FC Basel 1893's form when playing away from home: 2W 6D 2L across 10 road games this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
The points-per-game gap of 0.60 in BSC Young Boys's favour (2.10 vs 1.50) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Trading Data
BSC Young Boys goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (48 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 74% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 78% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 48%.
FC Basel 1893 goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (48 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — BSC Young Boys 69% and FC Basel 1893 60% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (BSC Young Boys 73% | FC Basel 1893 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects BSC Young Boys 1.64 xG and FC Basel 1893 0.85 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: BSC Young Boys attack 1.214 / defence 0.697 | FC Basel 1893 attack 0.841 / defence 0.896. League average goals — home 1.503 / away 1.443. BSC Young Boys's defence rating of 0.697 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 49 BSC Young Boys games / 48 FC Basel 1893 games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: BSC Young Boys 54% | Draw 29% | FC Basel 1893 17%. Fair-value odds: BSC Young Boys 1.85 | Draw 3.45 | FC Basel 1893 5.88. BSC Young Boys hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.48. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.48 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates BSC Young Boys as the most likely outcome at 54% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on BSC Young Boys if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.48 combined xG gives a 45% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 48%. Form rates are neutral: BSC Young Boys 60% | FC Basel 1893 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: BSC Young Boys vs FC Basel 1893 | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Stadion Wankdorf • Kick-off: Sunday 30 Oct 2022, 15:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: BSC Young Boys 54% | Draw 29% | FC Basel 1893 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 48% | xG BSC Young Boys 1.64 / FC Basel 1893 0.85 • Poisson strength factors: BSC Young Boys attack 1.214 / def 0.697 | FC Basel 1893 attack 0.841 / def 0.896 | league avg home 1.503 / away 1.443 • Poisson stance: BSC Young Boys (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.64
BSC Young Boys xG
Expected Goals
0.85
FC Basel 1893 xG
48%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does BSC Young Boys vs FC Basel 1893 kick off?
BSC Young Boys vs FC Basel 1893 kicked off at 15:30 on Sunday 30 October 2022 at Stadion Wankdorf.
What was the final score in BSC Young Boys vs FC Basel 1893?
BSC Young Boys 3 - 1 FC Basel 1893.
Where is BSC Young Boys vs FC Basel 1893 being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Wankdorf.
What competition is BSC Young Boys vs FC Basel 1893 part of?
BSC Young Boys vs FC Basel 1893 is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Super League (Switzerland).
Who is favourite to win BSC Young Boys vs FC Basel 1893?
Our statistical model gives BSC Young Boys a 54% chance of winning, FC Basel 1893 a 17% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making BSC Young Boys the favourite.
Will both teams score in BSC Young Boys vs FC Basel 1893?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both BSC Young Boys and FC Basel 1893 will score (BTTS).
Will BSC Young Boys vs FC Basel 1893 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between BSC Young Boys and FC Basel 1893?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are BSC Young Boys and FC Basel 1893 in?
BSC Young Boys (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-D-W-D. FC Basel 1893 (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from BSC Young Boys's attack rating (1.21) and FC Basel 1893's defence rating (0.90), the model arrives at 1.64 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — FC Basel 1893's attack (0.84x) against BSC Young Boys's defence (0.70x) — and the away total comes out at 0.85.
These ratings are built from 49/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.1%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.2%), 2-0 (11.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
BSC Young Boys Win
54%
1.85
29%
3.49
17%
5.77
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
2 – 0
11.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.64
BSC Young Boys xG
Total xG
2.48
0.85
FC Basel 1893 xG
1.85
54%
Home win
3.49
29%
Draw
5.77
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.08
52%
BTTS No
1.92
Clean Sheet
43%
2.33
19%
5.13
Win to Nil
23%
4.31
3%
29.62
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.4 | 7.1 | 3.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 13.7 | 11.6 | 4.9 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 11.2 | 9.5 | 4.0 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 6.1 | 5.2 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.5 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for BSC Young Boys vs FC Basel 1893?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are BSC Young Boys and FC Basel 1893 expected to score?
The model projects 1.64 expected goals for BSC Young Boys and 0.85 for FC Basel 1893, a combined total of 2.48.
How confident is the prediction model for BSC Young Boys vs FC Basel 1893?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
BSC Young Boys come into this having played 48 games, going 23W 16D 9L for 1.77 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-D-W-D. The sample for BSC Young Boys is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, FC Basel 1893 sit at 1.65 PPG from 48 outings (19W 22D 7L), a run that reads W-L-D-D-W across their last five. The sample for FC Basel 1893 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.77 PPG for BSC Young Boys against 1.65 for FC Basel 1893. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
BSC Young Boys's home form reads 15W 6D 2L across 23 games on their own ground, a 2.22 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.77 PPG overall — BSC Young Boys are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, FC Basel 1893 have taken 1.52 points per game from 23 outings (8W 11D 4L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, BSC Young Boys come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
BSC Young Boys are averaging 2.19 goals scored and 1.15 conceded per game recently; FC Basel 1893 are on 1.83 scored and 1.12 conceded. Both sides have been scoring freely, which tends to support the goals markets running hot in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: BSC Young Boys have seen both teams score in 69% of their recent games; FC Basel 1893 in 60%.
Last 48 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
BSC Young Boys
Blended
FC Basel 1893
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are BSC Young Boys and FC Basel 1893 in coming into this match?
BSC Young Boys have gone 23W 16D 9L in their last 48 games (1.77 PPG), while FC Basel 1893 have gone 19W 22D 7L in their last 48 (1.65 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — BSC Young Boys at home or FC Basel 1893 away?
BSC Young Boys's home record (2.22 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — BSC Young Boys at home: 2.22 PPG; FC Basel 1893 away: 1.52 PPG.
Have BSC Young Boys or FC Basel 1893 been keeping clean sheets recently?
BSC Young Boys have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, FC Basel 1893 in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to January 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. They last met on 10 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: BSC Young Boys won 5-1 on 10 Mar 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, BSC Young Boys have gone 4W 1D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against FC Basel 1893 — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
BSC Young Boys
2
Draws
3
FC Basel 1893
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between BSC Young Boys and FC Basel 1893?
From 10 meetings on record, BSC Young Boys have won 5, FC Basel 1893 have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did BSC Young Boys and FC Basel 1893 last play each other?
They last met on 10 May 2026, when BSC Young Boys 3-0 FC Basel 1893.
Who has won more matches between BSC Young Boys and FC Basel 1893?
BSC Young Boys have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
BSC Young Boys are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
FC Basel 1893 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 74% for BSC Young Boys, 56% for FC Basel 1893 — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 78% for BSC Young Boys and 48% for FC Basel 1893. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 48% and 39% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: FC Basel 1893 in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = BSC Young Boys home games / FC Basel 1893 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when BSC Young Boys play FC Basel 1893?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 74% of BSC Young Boys's games and 56% of FC Basel 1893's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is BSC Young Boys vs FC Basel 1893 usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 78% of BSC Young Boys's matches and 48% of FC Basel 1893's.
Do BSC Young Boys and FC Basel 1893 tend to score early?
BSC Young Boys have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, FC Basel 1893 in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
BSC Young Boys cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over FC Basel 1893.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
BSC Young Boys beat FC Basel 1893 3-1 at Stadion Wankdorf, Regular Season - 14, in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting BSC Young Boys 1.64 xG and FC Basel 1893 0.85 xG, a combined 2.48. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. BSC Young Boys beat their projection by 1.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of BSC Young Boys attack 1.21 / defence 0.70 against FC Basel 1893 attack 0.84 / defence 0.90, drawn from 49/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it BSC Young Boys 54% | Draw 29% | FC Basel 1893 17%, with BSC Young Boys to win its most likely call at 54%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. Over 3.5 was 24% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (BSC Young Boys 73%, FC Basel 1893 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
BSC Young Boys's trading profile (48 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did.
FC Basel 1893's trading profile (48 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — BSC Young Boys 1.77 PPG, FC Basel 1893 1.65 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the BSC Young Boys win broke the near-deadlock. FC Basel 1893 (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.17 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.