Vasteras SK FK 4-4 Trelleborg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Trelleborg at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Vasteras SK FK vs Trelleborg fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Iver Arena plays host to Vasteras SK FK versus Trelleborg in Superettan, Regular Season - 19. Kick-off: Tuesday 16 August 2022 at 18:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Vasteras SK FK have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 Superettan outings this season: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: W D D L L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Vasteras SK FK, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Iver Arena, Vasteras SK FK have gone 2W 5D 3L this season (10 games, 1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Trelleborg's overall Superettan record this term: 4W 3D 3L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: L W W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Trelleborg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Trelleborg's form when playing away from home: 4W 3D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.20 PPG for Vasteras SK FK against 1.50 for Trelleborg. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Vasteras SK FK register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, Trelleborg in 70%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Vasteras SK FK lead 1W to 1W over the last 3 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 14 May 2022, ended 0–3 with Trelleborg winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Vasteras SK FK goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (48 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games).
Trelleborg goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (48 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Vasteras SK FK 60% and Trelleborg 65% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Vasteras SK FK 56% | Trelleborg 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Vasteras SK FK 1.47 xG and Trelleborg 1.56 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Vasteras SK FK attack 1.028 / defence 1.134 | Trelleborg attack 1.044 / defence 1.057. League average goals — home 1.351 / away 1.315. Data: 48 Vasteras SK FK games / 48 Trelleborg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Vasteras SK FK 35% | Draw 26% | Trelleborg 39%. Fair-value odds: Vasteras SK FK 2.86 | Draw 3.85 | Trelleborg 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.02. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.02 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.47 / 1.56) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Trelleborg as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Trelleborg if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.02 combined xG gives a 58% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 62%. Form rates corroborate: Vasteras SK FK 70% | Trelleborg 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Vasteras SK FK vs Trelleborg | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Iver Arena • Kick-off: Tuesday 16 Aug 2022, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Vasteras SK FK 35% | Draw 26% | Trelleborg 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 62% | xG Vasteras SK FK 1.47 / Trelleborg 1.56 • Poisson strength factors: Vasteras SK FK attack 1.028 / def 1.134 | Trelleborg attack 1.044 / def 1.057 | league avg home 1.351 / away 1.315 • Poisson stance: Trelleborg (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.47
Vasteras SK FK xG
Expected Goals
1.56
Trelleborg xG
62%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Vasteras SK FK vs Trelleborg kick off?
Vasteras SK FK vs Trelleborg kicked off at 18:00 on Tuesday 16 August 2022 at Iver Arena.
What was the final score in Vasteras SK FK vs Trelleborg?
Vasteras SK FK 4 - 4 Trelleborg.
Where is Vasteras SK FK vs Trelleborg being played?
The match is being played at Iver Arena.
What competition is Vasteras SK FK vs Trelleborg part of?
Vasteras SK FK vs Trelleborg is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Vasteras SK FK vs Trelleborg?
Our statistical model gives Vasteras SK FK a 35% chance of winning, Trelleborg a 39% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Trelleborg the favourite.
Will both teams score in Vasteras SK FK vs Trelleborg?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Vasteras SK FK and Trelleborg will score (BTTS).
Will Vasteras SK FK vs Trelleborg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Vasteras SK FK and Trelleborg?
Record (3 meetings): Vasteras SK FK 1W | Draws 1 | Trelleborg 1W.
What form are Vasteras SK FK and Trelleborg in?
Vasteras SK FK (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-D-D-L-L. Trelleborg (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Vasteras SK FK's attack at 1.03x the league average against Trelleborg's defence at 1.06x — combine the two and it projects 1.47 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Trelleborg's attack (1.04x) against Vasteras SK FK's defence (1.13x) — and the away total comes out at 1.56.
These ratings are built from 48/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.6%), 2-1 (8.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Trelleborg Win
35%
2.84
26%
3.87
39%
2.56
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.6%
Away win
2 – 1
8.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.47
Vasteras SK FK xG
Total xG
3.02
1.56
Trelleborg xG
2.84
35%
Home win
3.87
26%
Draw
2.56
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.62
38%
BTTS No
2.60
Clean Sheet
21%
4.74
23%
4.34
Win to Nil
7%
13.48
9%
11.13
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.9 | 7.6 | 5.9 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 7.1 | 11.1 | 8.6 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.2 | 8.1 | 6.3 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 4.0 | 3.1 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.5 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Vasteras SK FK vs Trelleborg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.5%.
How many goals are Vasteras SK FK and Trelleborg expected to score?
The model projects 1.47 expected goals for Vasteras SK FK and 1.56 for Trelleborg, a combined total of 3.02.
How confident is the prediction model for Vasteras SK FK vs Trelleborg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 48 outings, Vasteras SK FK have picked up 1.12 PPG on a 12W 18D 18L record — W-D-D-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Vasteras SK FK is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Trelleborg's form line: 19W 15D 14L from 48 games, 1.50 PPG, last five L-W-W-L-D. The sample for Trelleborg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.12 PPG for Vasteras SK FK against 1.50 for Trelleborg. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Vasteras SK FK have posted 1.21 PPG from 24 outings (6W 11D 7L).
On the road, Trelleborg have gone 7W 9D 8L from 24 away games — 1.25 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Vasteras SK FK are averaging 1.23 goals scored and 1.48 conceded per game recently; Trelleborg are on 1.44 scored and 1.38 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Vasteras SK FK have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games; Trelleborg in 65%.
Last 48 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Vasteras SK FK
Blended
Trelleborg
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Vasteras SK FK and Trelleborg in coming into this match?
Vasteras SK FK have gone 12W 18D 18L in their last 48 games (1.12 PPG), while Trelleborg have gone 19W 15D 14L in their last 48 (1.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Vasteras SK FK at home or Trelleborg away?
Trelleborg's away record (1.25 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Vasteras SK FK at home: 1.21 PPG; Trelleborg away: 1.25 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since May 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. They last met on 28 July 2025, roughly 12 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Trelleborg won 5-0 on 17 May 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Vasteras SK FK have gone 2W 2D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Trelleborg — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Vasteras SK FK
2
Draws
3
Trelleborg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Vasteras SK FK and Trelleborg?
From 8 meetings on record, Vasteras SK FK have won 3, Trelleborg have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Vasteras SK FK and Trelleborg last play each other?
They last met on 28 July 2025, when Vasteras SK FK 3-0 Trelleborg.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Vasteras SK FK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 21% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Trelleborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 67% for Vasteras SK FK, 67% for Trelleborg — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 71% for Vasteras SK FK and 50% for Trelleborg. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 42% and 42% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Vasteras SK FK home games / Trelleborg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Vasteras SK FK play Trelleborg?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Vasteras SK FK's games and 67% of Trelleborg's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Vasteras SK FK vs Trelleborg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 71% of Vasteras SK FK's matches and 50% of Trelleborg's.
Do Vasteras SK FK and Trelleborg tend to score early?
Vasteras SK FK have had a goal before half-time in 88% of their recent matches, Trelleborg in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Vasteras SK FK and Trelleborg share the spoils in a 4-4 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Vasteras SK FK and Trelleborg finished level at 4-4 at Iver Arena, Regular Season - 19, in the Superettan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Vasteras SK FK 1.47 xG and Trelleborg 1.56 xG, a combined 3.02. The scoreboard read 4-4 for 8 actual goals. Vasteras SK FK beat their projection by 2.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Trelleborg outscored their 1.56 projection by 2.4. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Vasteras SK FK attack 1.03 / defence 1.13 against Trelleborg attack 1.04 / defence 1.06, drawn from 48/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Vasteras SK FK 35% | Draw 26% | Trelleborg 39%, with Trelleborg to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 8, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. Over 3.5 was 36% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Vasteras SK FK 56%, Trelleborg 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Vasteras SK FK's trading profile (48 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Trelleborg's trading profile (48 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Vasteras SK FK 1.12 PPG, Trelleborg 1.50 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Vasteras SK FK (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.38 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 1.50 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Trelleborg (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.33 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 1.58 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.