Vasteras SK FK 1-1 Orgryte IS – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Orgryte IS at 47% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Vasteras SK FK face Orgryte IS.

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Match Analysis

Vasteras SK FK host Orgryte IS at Hitachi Energy Arena in Superettan (matchday 2). Kick-off is Tuesday 8 April 2025 at 19:00 UK time.

Recent Form

Across their last 10 games, Vasteras SK FK have gone 6W 2D 2L — a 2.00 PPG return. Last five: W W W L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 0.80 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.

At home, Vasteras SK FK have gone 8W 1D 1L in their last 10 home games (2.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 2.00 — Vasteras SK FK are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.

Looking at their last 10 matches, Orgryte IS stand at 6W 3D 1L — 2.10 PPG. Last five: L W D W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.

Orgryte IS's away record over their last 10 away games: 4W 3D 3L (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.50 is notably below their overall 2.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.

The form comparison is too close to call — 2.00 PPG (Vasteras SK FK) versus 2.10 (Orgryte IS). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.

Head to Head

The H2H picture is flat: the 6 H2H matches we hold have produced 0 wins for Vasteras SK FK, 1 for Orgryte IS and 5 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here.

The 6 H2H matches in our data averaged 1.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 4 Nov 2023, ended Vasteras SK FK 0–1 Orgryte IS — a Orgryte IS win.

The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.

In-Play Data

Vasteras SK FK trading profile (last 30 games, 15 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 53% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; of the 6 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 50%; BTTS occurs in 27% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.

Orgryte IS trading profile (last 30 games, 15 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; of the 12 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Vasteras SK FK 40% versus Orgryte IS 70%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Vasteras SK FK 53% | Orgryte IS 60%). Note also that Orgryte IS surrender HT leads in 33% of cases while Vasteras SK FK recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 50% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Vasteras SK FK 1.02 xG and Orgryte IS 1.44 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Vasteras SK FK attack 0.870 / defence 1.150 | Orgryte IS attack 1.015 / defence 0.993. League average goals — home 1.183 / away 1.232. Data: built from Vasteras SK FK's last 1 games and Orgryte IS's last 31. Some of those games are older results, so treat these probabilities as directional rather than precise.

Result probabilities: Vasteras SK FK 27% | Draw 27% | Orgryte IS 47%. Fair-value odds: Vasteras SK FK 3.73 | Draw 3.77 | Orgryte IS 2.14. Orgryte IS hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS Yes probability 49% | Total xG 2.46. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.46 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 51% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Orgryte IS at 47% — moderate model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Orgryte IS offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

The Poisson model projects 2.46 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 55% — reasonable conviction, supported by the H2H data averaging 1.8 goals per game across 6 H2H matches.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on No. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Vasteras SK FK 30% (last 10 home games) | Orgryte IS 50% (last 10 away games).

The Poisson model's sample (Vasteras SK FK 1 games, Orgryte IS 31) includes some older results, so its projections carry extra uncertainty — weight recent form and the odds accordingly.

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