Vasteras SK FK 3-0 Landskrona BoIS – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Landskrona BoIS at 44% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Vasteras SK FK vs Landskrona BoIS encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Superettan clash, Regular Season - 14 as Vasteras SK FK welcome Landskrona BoIS to Iver Arena. Kick-off is set for Sunday 17 July 2022 at 12:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Vasteras SK FK — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Superettan outings this season, averaging 1.20 points per game. Last five: W D W L L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Vasteras SK FK, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Vasteras SK FK's form when playing at home: 2W 5D 3L across 10 games at Iver Arena this term (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Landskrona BoIS stand at 5W 5D 0L from 10 Superettan matches — 2.00 PPG. Last five: D D W W W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.30. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Landskrona BoIS, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Landskrona BoIS's away record: 2W 3D 5L from 10 road trips in Superettan this season (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. Landskrona BoIS's 2.00 PPG return is 0.80 points per game ahead of Vasteras SK FK's 1.20 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Vasteras SK FK, 1 for Landskrona BoIS and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 15 Aug 2021, ended 0–1 with Landskrona BoIS winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Vasteras SK FK in-play tendencies (43 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 43% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games).
Landskrona BoIS in-play tendencies (43 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Vasteras SK FK 60% and Landskrona BoIS 60% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Vasteras SK FK 56% | Landskrona BoIS 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Vasteras SK FK 1.28 xG and Landskrona BoIS 1.60 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Vasteras SK FK attack 0.961 / defence 1.318 | Landskrona BoIS attack 0.923 / defence 0.911. League average goals — home 1.460 / away 1.314. Data: 43 Vasteras SK FK games / 43 Landskrona BoIS games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Vasteras SK FK 29% | Draw 27% | Landskrona BoIS 44%. Fair-value odds: Vasteras SK FK 3.45 | Draw 3.70 | Landskrona BoIS 2.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.88. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.88 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Landskrona BoIS at 44% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Landskrona BoIS offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.88 combined xG gives a 55% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 59% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Vasteras SK FK 80% | Landskrona BoIS 40% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Vasteras SK FK vs Landskrona BoIS | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Iver Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 17 Jul 2022, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Vasteras SK FK 29% | Draw 27% | Landskrona BoIS 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 59% | xG Vasteras SK FK 1.28 / Landskrona BoIS 1.60 • Poisson strength factors: Vasteras SK FK attack 0.961 / def 1.318 | Landskrona BoIS attack 0.923 / def 0.911 | league avg home 1.460 / away 1.314 • Poisson stance: Landskrona BoIS (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.28
Vasteras SK FK xG
Expected Goals
1.60
Landskrona BoIS xG
59%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Vasteras SK FK vs Landskrona BoIS kick off?
Vasteras SK FK vs Landskrona BoIS kicked off at 12:00 on Sunday 17 July 2022 at Iver Arena.
What was the final score in Vasteras SK FK vs Landskrona BoIS?
Vasteras SK FK 3 - 0 Landskrona BoIS.
Where is Vasteras SK FK vs Landskrona BoIS being played?
The match is being played at Iver Arena.
What competition is Vasteras SK FK vs Landskrona BoIS part of?
Vasteras SK FK vs Landskrona BoIS is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Vasteras SK FK vs Landskrona BoIS?
Our statistical model gives Vasteras SK FK a 29% chance of winning, Landskrona BoIS a 44% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Landskrona BoIS the favourite.
Will both teams score in Vasteras SK FK vs Landskrona BoIS?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Vasteras SK FK and Landskrona BoIS will score (BTTS).
Will Vasteras SK FK vs Landskrona BoIS have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Vasteras SK FK and Landskrona BoIS?
Record (2 meetings): Vasteras SK FK 1W | Draws 0 | Landskrona BoIS 1W.
What form are Vasteras SK FK and Landskrona BoIS in?
Vasteras SK FK (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.90 | L5 W-D-W-L-L. Landskrona BoIS (all comps): 5W-5D-0L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-D-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Vasteras SK FK's attack rating (0.96) and Landskrona BoIS's defence rating (0.91), the model arrives at 1.28 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Landskrona BoIS's attack versus Vasteras SK FK's defence, projects 1.60 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 43/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.0%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.2%), 0-1 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Landskrona BoIS Win
29%
3.42
27%
3.66
44%
2.30
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.2%
Away win
0 – 1
9.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.28
Vasteras SK FK xG
Total xG
2.88
1.60
Landskrona BoIS xG
3.42
29%
Home win
3.66
27%
Draw
2.30
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.70
41%
BTTS No
2.44
Clean Sheet
20%
4.95
28%
3.59
Win to Nil
6%
16.94
12%
8.26
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.6 | 9.0 | 7.2 | 3.8 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 7.2 | 11.5 | 9.2 | 4.9 | 2.0 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.6 | 7.4 | 5.9 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 3.1 | 2.5 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Vasteras SK FK vs Landskrona BoIS?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are Vasteras SK FK and Landskrona BoIS expected to score?
The model projects 1.28 expected goals for Vasteras SK FK and 1.60 for Landskrona BoIS, a combined total of 2.88.
How confident is the prediction model for Vasteras SK FK vs Landskrona BoIS?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Vasteras SK FK come into this having played 43 games, going 11W 16D 16L for 1.14 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-W-L-L. The sample for Vasteras SK FK is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Landskrona BoIS sit at 1.49 PPG from 43 outings (18W 10D 15L), a run that reads D-D-W-W-W across their last five. The sample for Landskrona BoIS is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Vasteras SK FK on 1.14 PPG, Landskrona BoIS on 1.49. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Vasteras SK FK's home form reads 5W 10D 6L across 21 games on their own ground, a 1.19 PPG return.
Away from home, Landskrona BoIS have taken 0.81 points per game from 21 outings (4W 5D 12L). That's a step down from their 1.49 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Landskrona BoIS's season.
Goals in Recent Form
Vasteras SK FK are averaging 1.21 goals scored and 1.51 conceded per game recently; Landskrona BoIS are on 1.42 scored and 1.33 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Vasteras SK FK have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games; Landskrona BoIS in 60%.
Last 43 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Vasteras SK FK
Blended
Landskrona BoIS
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Vasteras SK FK and Landskrona BoIS in coming into this match?
Vasteras SK FK have gone 11W 16D 16L in their last 43 games (1.14 PPG), while Landskrona BoIS have gone 18W 10D 15L in their last 43 (1.49 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Vasteras SK FK at home or Landskrona BoIS away?
Vasteras SK FK's home record (1.19 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Vasteras SK FK at home: 1.19 PPG; Landskrona BoIS away: 0.81 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. They last met on 3 August 2025, roughly 12 months ago.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Vasteras SK FK have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 17 Jul 2022, when Vasteras SK FK won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Vasteras SK FK's record when hosting Landskrona BoIS specifically: 3W 1D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
5
Vasteras SK FK
1
Draws
2
Landskrona BoIS
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Vasteras SK FK and Landskrona BoIS?
From 8 meetings on record, Vasteras SK FK have won 5, Landskrona BoIS have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Vasteras SK FK and Landskrona BoIS last play each other?
They last met on 3 August 2025, when Landskrona BoIS 1-2 Vasteras SK FK.
Who has won more matches between Vasteras SK FK and Landskrona BoIS?
Vasteras SK FK have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Vasteras SK FK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 19% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Landskrona BoIS are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Vasteras SK FK 71%, Landskrona BoIS 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 71% (Vasteras SK FK) and 48% (Landskrona BoIS). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 43% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Landskrona BoIS in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Vasteras SK FK home games / Landskrona BoIS away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Vasteras SK FK play Landskrona BoIS?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 71% of Vasteras SK FK's games and 52% of Landskrona BoIS's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Vasteras SK FK vs Landskrona BoIS usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 71% of Vasteras SK FK's matches and 48% of Landskrona BoIS's.
Do Vasteras SK FK and Landskrona BoIS tend to score early?
Vasteras SK FK have had a goal before half-time in 86% of their recent matches, Landskrona BoIS in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Vasteras SK FK run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Landskrona BoIS.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Vasteras SK FK beat Landskrona BoIS 3-0 at Iver Arena, Regular Season - 14, in the Superettan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Vasteras SK FK 1.28 xG and Landskrona BoIS 1.60 xG, a combined 2.88. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Vasteras SK FK beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Landskrona BoIS landed 1.6 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Vasteras SK FK attack 0.96 / defence 1.32 against Landskrona BoIS attack 0.92 / defence 0.91, drawn from 43/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Vasteras SK FK 29% | Draw 27% | Landskrona BoIS 44%, with Landskrona BoIS to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual Vasteras SK FK win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Vasteras SK FK 56%, Landskrona BoIS 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Vasteras SK FK's trading profile (43 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.
Landskrona BoIS's trading profile (43 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Vasteras SK FK 1.14 PPG, Landskrona BoIS 1.49 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Vasteras SK FK win broke the near-deadlock. Vasteras SK FK (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.33 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.57 average — tighter than their form line. Landskrona BoIS (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.10 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.52 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.