Vasteras SK FK 2-0 GIF Sundsvall – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Vasteras SK FK at 61% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Vasteras SK FK vs GIF Sundsvall encounter.

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Analysis

GIF Sundsvall make the trip to Hitachi Energy Arena to face Vasteras SK FK in Superettan (matchday 23). The match kicks off on Saturday 23 September 2023 at 15:00 UK time.

Current Form

Vasteras SK FK's record over their last 10 games: 6W 3D 1L (2.10 PPG). Last five: W L D D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.

Vasteras SK FK at home: 6W 4D 0L from their last 10 home games — 2.20 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.30 conceded per game. 8 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (80%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.

GIF Sundsvall (all games): 2W 4D 4L across their last 10 — 1.00 points per game. Last five: D L W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

GIF Sundsvall away from home: 2W 2D 6L from their last 10 away games — 0.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game.

Form favours the hosts. Vasteras SK FK's 2.10 PPG return is 1.10 points per game ahead of GIF Sundsvall's 1.00 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.

Head-to-Head

The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 3 H2H matches in our data, GIF Sundsvall edge it 2 wins to 1, with 0 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.

The 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 8 Jul 2023, ended Vasteras SK FK 3–1 GIF Sundsvall — a Vasteras SK FK win.

The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.

Trading

Vasteras SK FK half-time and goal-timing data (last 52 games, 25 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 72% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 48% of the time; of the 25 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 36%; of the 11 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 27%; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games).

GIF Sundsvall half-time and goal-timing data (last 52 games, 25 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 84% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; of the 7 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 43%; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 48%; they fail to score in 31% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Vasteras SK FK 56% versus GIF Sundsvall 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Vasteras SK FK 58% | GIF Sundsvall 62%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Vasteras SK FK 1.82 xG and GIF Sundsvall 0.78 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Vasteras SK FK attack 0.908 / defence 0.702 | GIF Sundsvall attack 0.914 / defence 1.312. League average goals — home 1.531 / away 1.209. GIF Sundsvall's defence rating of 1.312 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Vasteras SK FK's projected output up. Vasteras SK FK have a tight defence (rating 0.702), which is pulling GIF Sundsvall's projected output down. Data: built from Vasteras SK FK's last 52 games and GIF Sundsvall's last 22.

Result probabilities: Vasteras SK FK 61% | Draw 24% | GIF Sundsvall 14%. Fair-value odds: Vasteras SK FK 1.63 | Draw 4.12 | GIF Sundsvall 6.94. The model has a clear lean to Vasteras SK FK (61%) — a 37pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS Yes probability 46% | Total xG 2.60. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.60 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS No at 54% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Vasteras SK FK at 61% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

Poisson projects 2.60 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 52% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on No. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Vasteras SK FK 20% (last 10 home games) | GIF Sundsvall 50% (last 10 away games).

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