Varbergs BoIS FC vs Ljungskile SK – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Varbergs BoIS FC at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Varbergs BoIS FC vs Ljungskile SK fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Ljungskile SK make the trip to Paskbergsvallen to face Varbergs BoIS FC in Superettan, Regular Season - 29. The match kicks off on Sunday 1 November 2026 at 12:00 UTC.
Form
Varbergs BoIS FC (all games): 4W 2D 4L across 10 Superettan fixtures this term — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L D L W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Varbergs BoIS FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Varbergs BoIS FC's form when playing at home: 7W 1D 2L across 10 games at Paskbergsvallen this term (2.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Varbergs BoIS FC are significantly better at Paskbergsvallen than their overall form suggests.
Ljungskile SK's overall Superettan record this term: 3W 4D 3L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: L L D L D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Ljungskile SK, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Ljungskile SK have gone 2W 5D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.40 for Varbergs BoIS FC, 1.30 for Ljungskile SK — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Varbergs BoIS FC have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Ljungskile SK in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Varbergs BoIS FC 1W, Ljungskile SK 0W, 0D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 4.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 30 May 2026, ended 3–1 with Varbergs BoIS FC winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Varbergs BoIS FC — key trading statistics (22 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
Ljungskile SK — key trading statistics (22 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 41%; they fail to score in 36% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Varbergs BoIS FC 64% and Ljungskile SK 59% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Varbergs BoIS FC 68% | Ljungskile SK 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Varbergs BoIS FC 1.60 xG and Ljungskile SK 1.22 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Varbergs BoIS FC attack 1.150 / defence 0.922 | Ljungskile SK attack 0.995 / defence 1.015. League average goals — home 1.369 / away 1.325. Data: 52 Varbergs BoIS FC games / 22 Ljungskile SK games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Varbergs BoIS FC 45% | Draw 27% | Ljungskile SK 28%. Fair-value odds: Varbergs BoIS FC 2.22 | Draw 3.70 | Ljungskile SK 3.57. Varbergs BoIS FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.81. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.81 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Varbergs BoIS FC are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Varbergs BoIS FC if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.81 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 53% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 57% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Varbergs BoIS FC 60% | Ljungskile SK 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Varbergs BoIS FC vs Ljungskile SK | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Paskbergsvallen • Kick-off: Sunday 1 Nov 2026, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Varbergs BoIS FC 45% | Draw 27% | Ljungskile SK 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 57% | xG Varbergs BoIS FC 1.60 / Ljungskile SK 1.22 • Poisson strength factors: Varbergs BoIS FC attack 1.150 / def 0.922 | Ljungskile SK attack 0.995 / def 1.015 | league avg home 1.369 / away 1.325 • Poisson stance: Varbergs BoIS FC (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.60
Varbergs BoIS FC xG
Expected Goals
1.22
Ljungskile SK xG
57%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Varbergs BoIS FC vs Ljungskile SK kick off?
Varbergs BoIS FC vs Ljungskile SK is scheduled to kick off at 12:00 on Sunday 1 November 2026 at Paskbergsvallen.
Where is Varbergs BoIS FC vs Ljungskile SK being played?
The match is being played at Paskbergsvallen.
What competition is Varbergs BoIS FC vs Ljungskile SK part of?
Varbergs BoIS FC vs Ljungskile SK is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Varbergs BoIS FC vs Ljungskile SK?
Our statistical model gives Varbergs BoIS FC a 45% chance of winning, Ljungskile SK a 28% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Varbergs BoIS FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Varbergs BoIS FC vs Ljungskile SK?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Varbergs BoIS FC and Ljungskile SK will score (BTTS).
Will Varbergs BoIS FC vs Ljungskile SK have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Varbergs BoIS FC and Ljungskile SK?
Record (1 meetings): Varbergs BoIS FC 1W | Draws 0 | Ljungskile SK 0W.
What form are Varbergs BoIS FC and Ljungskile SK in?
Varbergs BoIS FC (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-D-L-W-D. Ljungskile SK (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Varbergs BoIS FC's attack at 1.15x the league average against Ljungskile SK's defence at 1.01x — combine the two and it projects 1.60 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Ljungskile SK's attack (0.99x) against Varbergs BoIS FC's defence (0.92x) — and the away total comes out at 1.22.
These ratings are built from 52/22 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.3%), 1-0 (8.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Varbergs BoIS FC Win
45%
2.21
27%
3.75
28%
3.56
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.6%
Home win
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.60
Varbergs BoIS FC xG
Total xG
2.81
1.22
Ljungskile SK xG
2.21
45%
Home win
3.75
27%
Draw
3.56
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.75
43%
BTTS No
2.33
Clean Sheet
30%
3.37
20%
4.95
Win to Nil
13%
7.45
6%
17.63
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.0 | 7.3 | 4.4 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.6 | 11.6 | 7.1 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.7 | 9.3 | 5.7 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.1 | 5.0 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 2.0 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Varbergs BoIS FC vs Ljungskile SK?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Varbergs BoIS FC and Ljungskile SK expected to score?
The model projects 1.60 expected goals for Varbergs BoIS FC and 1.22 for Ljungskile SK, a combined total of 2.81.
How confident is the prediction model for Varbergs BoIS FC vs Ljungskile SK?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 22 outings, Varbergs BoIS FC have picked up 1.73 PPG on a 11W 5D 6L record — L-D-L-W-D across the most recent five. The sample for Varbergs BoIS FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Ljungskile SK's form line: 6W 7D 9L from 22 games, 1.14 PPG, last five L-L-D-L-D. The sample for Ljungskile SK is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Varbergs BoIS FC are the form team by 0.59 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Ljungskile SK.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Varbergs BoIS FC have posted 2.00 PPG from 11 outings (7W 1D 3L).
On the road, Ljungskile SK have gone 2W 6D 3L from 11 away games — 1.09 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Varbergs BoIS FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Varbergs BoIS FC are averaging 1.77 goals scored and 1.27 conceded per game recently; Ljungskile SK are on 1.32 scored and 1.36 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Varbergs BoIS FC have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games.
Last 22 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Varbergs BoIS FC
Blended
Ljungskile SK
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Varbergs BoIS FC and Ljungskile SK in coming into this match?
Varbergs BoIS FC have gone 11W 5D 6L in their last 22 games (1.73 PPG), while Ljungskile SK have gone 6W 7D 9L in their last 22 (1.14 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Varbergs BoIS FC at home or Ljungskile SK away?
Varbergs BoIS FC's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Varbergs BoIS FC at home: 2.00 PPG; Ljungskile SK away: 1.09 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 1 times that we have on record, stretching back to May 2026 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. They last met on 30 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Last 1 Meetings
1
Varbergs BoIS FC
0
Draws
0
Ljungskile SK
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Varbergs BoIS FC and Ljungskile SK?
From 1 meetings on record, Varbergs BoIS FC have won 1, Ljungskile SK have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Varbergs BoIS FC and Ljungskile SK last play each other?
They last met on 30 May 2026, when Ljungskile SK 1-3 Varbergs BoIS FC.
Who has won more matches between Varbergs BoIS FC and Ljungskile SK?
Varbergs BoIS FC have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 1 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Varbergs BoIS FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 54% of the time.
Ljungskile SK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Varbergs BoIS FC 64%, Ljungskile SK 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 64% (Varbergs BoIS FC) and 54% (Ljungskile SK). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 36% and 46% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Ljungskile SK in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Varbergs BoIS FC home games / Ljungskile SK away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Varbergs BoIS FC play Ljungskile SK?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of Varbergs BoIS FC's games and 64% of Ljungskile SK's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Varbergs BoIS FC vs Ljungskile SK usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 64% of Varbergs BoIS FC's matches and 54% of Ljungskile SK's.
Do Varbergs BoIS FC and Ljungskile SK tend to score early?
Varbergs BoIS FC have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Ljungskile SK in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.