Varbergs BoIS FC 4-2 Landskrona BoIS – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Varbergs BoIS FC at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this Varbergs BoIS FC vs Landskrona BoIS fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Superettan encounter, Regular Season - 9 sees Landskrona BoIS travel to Paskbergsvallen to take on Varbergs BoIS FC. The game is scheduled for Thursday 22 May 2025, 18:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Varbergs BoIS FC stand at 3W 5D 2L from 10 Superettan matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D W D W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Varbergs BoIS FC at Paskbergsvallen this season: 3W 5D 2L from 10 home games — 1.40 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Landskrona BoIS — All Games: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Superettan fixtures this season — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W L W D L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Landskrona BoIS away from home this season: 4W 1D 5L from 10 away games — 1.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Varbergs BoIS FC 1.40 PPG, Landskrona BoIS 1.10 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Varbergs BoIS FC, 0 for Landskrona BoIS and 1 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 2 meetings have averaged 3.5 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 26 Aug 2024, ended 4–1 with Varbergs BoIS FC winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Varbergs BoIS FC trading profile (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
Landskrona BoIS trading profile (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Varbergs BoIS FC 55% versus Landskrona BoIS 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Varbergs BoIS FC 58% | Landskrona BoIS 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Varbergs BoIS FC 1.59 xG and Landskrona BoIS 1.12 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Varbergs BoIS FC attack 1.110 / defence 0.748 | Landskrona BoIS attack 1.169 / defence 0.991. League average goals — home 1.446 / away 1.279. Varbergs BoIS FC's defence rating of 0.748 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 38 Varbergs BoIS FC games / 38 Landskrona BoIS games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Varbergs BoIS FC 48% | Draw 25% | Landskrona BoIS 27%. Fair-value odds: Varbergs BoIS FC 2.08 | Draw 4.00 | Landskrona BoIS 3.70. Varbergs BoIS FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.71. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.71 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Varbergs BoIS FC at 48% — moderate model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Varbergs BoIS FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.71 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 51% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Varbergs BoIS FC 60% | Landskrona BoIS 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Varbergs BoIS FC vs Landskrona BoIS | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Paskbergsvallen • Kick-off: Thursday 22 May 2025, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Varbergs BoIS FC 48% | Draw 25% | Landskrona BoIS 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 54% | xG Varbergs BoIS FC 1.59 / Landskrona BoIS 1.12 • Poisson strength factors: Varbergs BoIS FC attack 1.110 / def 0.748 | Landskrona BoIS attack 1.169 / def 0.991 | league avg home 1.446 / away 1.279 • Poisson stance: Varbergs BoIS FC (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.59
Varbergs BoIS FC xG
Expected Goals
1.12
Landskrona BoIS xG
54%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Varbergs BoIS FC vs Landskrona BoIS kick off?
Varbergs BoIS FC vs Landskrona BoIS kicked off at 18:00 on Thursday 22 May 2025 at Paskbergsvallen.
What was the final score in Varbergs BoIS FC vs Landskrona BoIS?
Varbergs BoIS FC 4 - 2 Landskrona BoIS.
Where is Varbergs BoIS FC vs Landskrona BoIS being played?
The match is being played at Paskbergsvallen.
What competition is Varbergs BoIS FC vs Landskrona BoIS part of?
Varbergs BoIS FC vs Landskrona BoIS is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Varbergs BoIS FC vs Landskrona BoIS?
Our statistical model gives Varbergs BoIS FC a 48% chance of winning, Landskrona BoIS a 27% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Varbergs BoIS FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Varbergs BoIS FC vs Landskrona BoIS?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Varbergs BoIS FC and Landskrona BoIS will score (BTTS).
Will Varbergs BoIS FC vs Landskrona BoIS have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Varbergs BoIS FC and Landskrona BoIS?
Record (2 meetings): Varbergs BoIS FC 1W | Draws 1 | Landskrona BoIS 0W.
What form are Varbergs BoIS FC and Landskrona BoIS in?
Varbergs BoIS FC (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-W-D-W-W. Landskrona BoIS (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Varbergs BoIS FC's attack rating (1.11) and Landskrona BoIS's defence rating (0.99), the model arrives at 1.59 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Landskrona BoIS's attack versus Varbergs BoIS FC's defence, projects 1.12 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 38/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.4%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.4%), 1-0 (9.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Varbergs BoIS FC Win
48%
2.07
25%
4.01
27%
3.74
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.6%
Home win
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.59
Varbergs BoIS FC xG
Total xG
2.71
1.12
Landskrona BoIS xG
2.07
48%
Home win
4.01
25%
Draw
3.74
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.87
46%
BTTS No
2.16
Clean Sheet
33%
3.06
20%
4.91
Win to Nil
16%
6.33
5%
18.39
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.7 | 7.4 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.6 | 11.8 | 6.6 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.4 | 9.4 | 5.3 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.5 | 5.0 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 2.0 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Varbergs BoIS FC vs Landskrona BoIS?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Varbergs BoIS FC and Landskrona BoIS expected to score?
The model projects 1.59 expected goals for Varbergs BoIS FC and 1.12 for Landskrona BoIS, a combined total of 2.71.
How confident is the prediction model for Varbergs BoIS FC vs Landskrona BoIS?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 60 outings, Varbergs BoIS FC have picked up 0.90 PPG on a 13W 15D 32L record — D-W-D-W-W across the most recent five.
Landskrona BoIS's form line: 25W 13D 22L from 60 games, 1.47 PPG, last five W-L-W-D-L.
Put side by side, Landskrona BoIS are the form team by 0.57 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Varbergs BoIS FC.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Varbergs BoIS FC have posted 0.90 PPG from 30 outings (6W 9D 15L).
On the road, Landskrona BoIS have gone 11W 5D 14L from 30 away games — 1.27 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Varbergs BoIS FC are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.85 conceded per game recently; Landskrona BoIS are on 1.43 scored and 1.38 conceded.
Last 60 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Varbergs BoIS FC
Current Season
Landskrona BoIS
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Varbergs BoIS FC and Landskrona BoIS in coming into this match?
Varbergs BoIS FC have gone 13W 15D 32L in their last 60 games (0.90 PPG), while Landskrona BoIS have gone 25W 13D 22L in their last 60 (1.47 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Varbergs BoIS FC at home or Landskrona BoIS away?
Landskrona BoIS's away record (1.27 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Varbergs BoIS FC at home: 0.90 PPG; Landskrona BoIS away: 1.27 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Varbergs BoIS FC and Landskrona BoIS runs to 5 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to July 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. The two were last together as recently as 22 June 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
Landskrona BoIS have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 26 Aug 2024, when Varbergs BoIS FC won 1-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Varbergs BoIS FC's record when hosting Landskrona BoIS specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 5 Meetings
2
Varbergs BoIS FC
1
Draws
2
Landskrona BoIS
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Varbergs BoIS FC and Landskrona BoIS?
From 5 meetings on record, Varbergs BoIS FC have won 2, Landskrona BoIS have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Varbergs BoIS FC and Landskrona BoIS last play each other?
They last met on 22 June 2026, when Varbergs BoIS FC 2-3 Landskrona BoIS.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Varbergs BoIS FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches.
Landskrona BoIS are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Varbergs BoIS FC 53%, Landskrona BoIS 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (Varbergs BoIS FC) and 63% (Landskrona BoIS). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 20% and 27% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Varbergs BoIS FC have failed to score in 40% of games; Landskrona BoIS in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Varbergs BoIS FC home games / Landskrona BoIS away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Varbergs BoIS FC play Landskrona BoIS?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 53% of Varbergs BoIS FC's games and 57% of Landskrona BoIS's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Varbergs BoIS FC vs Landskrona BoIS usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 53% of Varbergs BoIS FC's matches and 63% of Landskrona BoIS's.
Do Varbergs BoIS FC and Landskrona BoIS tend to score early?
Varbergs BoIS FC have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Landskrona BoIS in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Varbergs BoIS FC cruise to a comfortable 4-2 victory over Landskrona BoIS.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Varbergs BoIS FC beat Landskrona BoIS 4-2 at Paskbergsvallen, Regular Season - 9, in the Superettan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Varbergs BoIS FC 1.59 xG and Landskrona BoIS 1.12 xG, a combined 2.71. The scoreboard read 4-2 for 6 actual goals. Varbergs BoIS FC beat their projection by 2.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Landskrona BoIS outscored their 1.12 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Varbergs BoIS FC attack 1.11 / defence 0.75 against Landskrona BoIS attack 1.17 / defence 0.99, drawn from 38/38 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Varbergs BoIS FC 48% | Draw 25% | Landskrona BoIS 27%, with Varbergs BoIS FC to win its most likely call at 48%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. Over 3.5 was 29% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Varbergs BoIS FC 58%, Landskrona BoIS 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Varbergs BoIS FC's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Landskrona BoIS's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Landskrona BoIS arrived the stronger side — 1.47 PPG against 0.90. Form was overturned, with Varbergs BoIS FC winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Varbergs BoIS FC (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm. Landskrona BoIS (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.60 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.