Utsikten 2-1 Orgryte IS – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Utsikten at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Utsikten vs Orgryte IS fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Orgryte IS make the trip to Bravida Arena to face Utsikten in Superettan, Regular Season - 5. The match kicks off on Monday 1 May 2023 at 14:00 UTC.
Form
Utsikten (all games): 3W 2D 5L across 10 Superettan fixtures this term — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W W D D L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Utsikten's form when playing at home: 2W 4D 4L across 10 games at Bravida Arena this term (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Orgryte IS's overall Superettan record this term: 4W 2D 4L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: D W L W L. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.30. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Orgryte IS away from home this season: 5W 2D 3L from 10 away games — 1.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.10 PPG for Utsikten against 1.40 for Orgryte IS. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Utsikten lead 1W to 1W over the last 2 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.5 per game from 2 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 31 Jul 2022, ended 0–1 with Orgryte IS winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Utsikten — key trading statistics (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games).
Orgryte IS — key trading statistics (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 87% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Utsikten 53% versus Orgryte IS 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Utsikten 50% | Orgryte IS 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Utsikten 1.16 xG and Orgryte IS 0.88 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Utsikten attack 0.916 / defence 1.079 | Orgryte IS attack 0.833 / defence 0.948. League average goals — home 1.340 / away 0.981. Data: 34 Utsikten games / 34 Orgryte IS games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Utsikten 42% | Draw 30% | Orgryte IS 28%. Fair-value odds: Utsikten 2.38 | Draw 3.33 | Orgryte IS 3.57. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 2.04. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.04 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Utsikten as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Utsikten if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.04 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 34% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 40% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Utsikten 50% | Orgryte IS 70% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Utsikten vs Orgryte IS | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Bravida Arena • Kick-off: Monday 1 May 2023, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Utsikten 42% | Draw 30% | Orgryte IS 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% | BTTS 40% | xG Utsikten 1.16 / Orgryte IS 0.88 • Poisson strength factors: Utsikten attack 0.916 / def 1.079 | Orgryte IS attack 0.833 / def 0.948 | league avg home 1.340 / away 0.981 • Poisson stance: Utsikten (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.16
Utsikten xG
Expected Goals
0.88
Orgryte IS xG
40%
BTTS
61%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Utsikten vs Orgryte IS kick off?
Utsikten vs Orgryte IS kicked off at 14:00 on Monday 1 May 2023 at Bravida Arena.
What was the final score in Utsikten vs Orgryte IS?
Utsikten 2 - 1 Orgryte IS.
Where is Utsikten vs Orgryte IS being played?
The match is being played at Bravida Arena.
What competition is Utsikten vs Orgryte IS part of?
Utsikten vs Orgryte IS is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Utsikten vs Orgryte IS?
Our statistical model gives Utsikten a 42% chance of winning, Orgryte IS a 28% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Utsikten the favourite.
Will both teams score in Utsikten vs Orgryte IS?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Utsikten and Orgryte IS will score (BTTS).
Will Utsikten vs Orgryte IS have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%.
What is the head-to-head record between Utsikten and Orgryte IS?
Record (2 meetings): Utsikten 1W | Draws 0 | Orgryte IS 1W.
What form are Utsikten and Orgryte IS in?
Utsikten (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-W-D-D-L. Orgryte IS (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-W-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Utsikten's attacking strength (0.92x league average) is weighed against Orgryte IS's defensive record (0.95x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.16. Flip it around — Orgryte IS's attack (0.83x) against Utsikten's defence (1.08x) — and the away total comes out at 0.88.
These ratings are built from 34/34 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.7%), 1-0 (13.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Utsikten Win
42%
2.37
30%
3.33
28%
3.61
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
0 – 0
13.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.16
Utsikten xG
Total xG
2.04
0.88
Orgryte IS xG
2.37
42%
Home win
3.33
30%
Draw
3.61
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.48
60%
BTTS No
1.67
Clean Sheet
41%
2.41
31%
3.20
Win to Nil
18%
5.71
9%
11.55
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.0 | 11.4 | 5.0 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 15.1 | 13.3 | 5.8 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.8 | 7.7 | 3.4 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.4 | 3.0 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Utsikten vs Orgryte IS?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Utsikten and Orgryte IS expected to score?
The model projects 1.16 expected goals for Utsikten and 0.88 for Orgryte IS, a combined total of 2.04.
How confident is the prediction model for Utsikten vs Orgryte IS?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Utsikten's recent record stands at 10W 7D 13L from 30 games, a 1.23 PPG return, with W-W-D-D-L in the last five.
Orgryte IS, meanwhile, have gone 9W 10D 11L across 30 games — 1.23 PPG, with D-W-L-W-L in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.23 PPG for Utsikten against 1.23 for Orgryte IS. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Utsikten have managed 4W 6D 5L from 15 games — 1.20 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Orgryte IS's away record stands at 5W 5D 5L across 15 trips, a 1.33 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Utsikten are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.53 conceded per game recently; Orgryte IS are on 1.47 scored and 1.37 conceded.
Last 30 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Utsikten
Current Season
Orgryte IS
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Utsikten and Orgryte IS in coming into this match?
Utsikten have gone 10W 7D 13L in their last 30 games (1.23 PPG), while Orgryte IS have gone 9W 10D 11L in their last 30 (1.23 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Utsikten at home or Orgryte IS away?
Orgryte IS's away record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Utsikten at home: 1.20 PPG; Orgryte IS away: 1.33 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to May 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. They last met on 31 August 2025, roughly 11 months ago.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Orgryte IS have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Utsikten have gone 1W 1D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Orgryte IS — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Utsikten
2
Draws
3
Orgryte IS
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Utsikten and Orgryte IS?
From 8 meetings on record, Utsikten have won 3, Orgryte IS have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Utsikten and Orgryte IS last play each other?
They last met on 31 August 2025, when Utsikten 1-2 Orgryte IS.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Utsikten are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Orgryte IS are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 87% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Utsikten 60%, Orgryte IS 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Utsikten) and 60% (Orgryte IS).
On the defensive side: Utsikten have failed to score in 27% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Utsikten home games / Orgryte IS away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Utsikten play Orgryte IS?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Utsikten's games and 67% of Orgryte IS's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Utsikten vs Orgryte IS usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Utsikten's recent games and 60% of Orgryte IS's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Utsikten and Orgryte IS tend to score early?
Utsikten have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Orgryte IS in 87% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Utsikten edge out Orgryte IS 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Utsikten beat Orgryte IS 2-1 at Bravida Arena, Regular Season - 5, in the Superettan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Utsikten 1.16 xG and Orgryte IS 0.88 xG, a combined 2.04. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Utsikten beat their projection by 0.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Utsikten attack 0.92 / defence 1.08 against Orgryte IS attack 0.83 / defence 0.95, drawn from 34/34 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Utsikten 42% | Draw 30% | Orgryte IS 28%, with Utsikten to win its most likely call at 42%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 61% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Utsikten 50%, Orgryte IS 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Utsikten's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Orgryte IS's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Utsikten 1.23 PPG, Orgryte IS 1.23 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Utsikten win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.