Utsikten 3-0 Dalkurd FF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Utsikten at 51%, yet other data sources diverge — this Utsikten vs Dalkurd FF fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Dalkurd FF make the trip to Bravida Arena to face Utsikten in Superettan, Regular Season - 6. The match kicks off on Sunday 8 May 2022 at 14:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Dalkurd FF's overall Superettan record this term: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games (2.00 PPG). Last five: W D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.00. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Dalkurd FF have played only a handful of Superettan games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Utsikten 1.64 xG and Dalkurd FF 1.07 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Utsikten attack 1.058 / defence 1.333 | Dalkurd FF attack 0.586 / defence 1.076. League average goals — home 1.444 / away 1.368. Data: 5 Utsikten games / 5 Dalkurd FF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Utsikten 51% | Draw 25% | Dalkurd FF 25%. Fair-value odds: Utsikten 1.96 | Draw 4.00 | Dalkurd FF 4.00. Utsikten hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.71. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.71 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Utsikten as the most likely outcome at 51% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Utsikten if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.71 combined xG gives a 51% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
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🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Utsikten vs Dalkurd FF | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Bravida Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 8 May 2022, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Utsikten 51% | Draw 25% | Dalkurd FF 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 53% | xG Utsikten 1.64 / Dalkurd FF 1.07 • Poisson strength factors: Utsikten attack 1.058 / def 1.333 | Dalkurd FF attack 0.586 / def 1.076 | league avg home 1.444 / away 1.368 • Poisson stance: Utsikten (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.64
Utsikten xG
Expected Goals
1.07
Dalkurd FF xG
53%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Utsikten vs Dalkurd FF kick off?
Utsikten vs Dalkurd FF kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 8 May 2022 at Bravida Arena.
What was the final score in Utsikten vs Dalkurd FF?
Utsikten 3 - 0 Dalkurd FF.
Where is Utsikten vs Dalkurd FF being played?
The match is being played at Bravida Arena.
What competition is Utsikten vs Dalkurd FF part of?
Utsikten vs Dalkurd FF is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Utsikten vs Dalkurd FF?
Our statistical model gives Utsikten a 51% chance of winning, Dalkurd FF a 25% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Utsikten the favourite.
Will both teams score in Utsikten vs Dalkurd FF?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Utsikten and Dalkurd FF will score (BTTS).
Will Utsikten vs Dalkurd FF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Utsikten and Dalkurd FF?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Utsikten and Dalkurd FF in?
Dalkurd FF (all comps): 1W-1D-0L in 2 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-D. Dalkurd FF away split: 1.00 PPG from 1 | GF 1.00 / GA 1.00 | CS 0.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Utsikten's attack at 1.06x the league average against Dalkurd FF's defence at 1.08x — combine the two and it projects 1.64 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Dalkurd FF's attack (0.59x) against Utsikten's defence (1.33x) — and the away total comes out at 1.07.
These ratings are built from 5/5 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 1-0 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Utsikten Win
51%
1.97
25%
4.07
25%
4.05
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.9%
Home win
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.64
Utsikten xG
Total xG
2.71
1.07
Dalkurd FF xG
1.97
51%
Home win
4.07
25%
Draw
4.05
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.89
47%
BTTS No
2.12
Clean Sheet
34%
2.91
19%
5.17
Win to Nil
17%
5.73
5%
20.94
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.6 | 7.1 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.9 | 11.7 | 6.2 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.0 | 9.6 | 5.1 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.9 | 5.2 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.0 | 2.2 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Utsikten vs Dalkurd FF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Utsikten and Dalkurd FF expected to score?
The model projects 1.64 expected goals for Utsikten and 1.07 for Dalkurd FF, a combined total of 2.71.
How confident is the prediction model for Utsikten vs Dalkurd FF?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Utsikten
Pre-Season
Dalkurd FF
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since May 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. It has been a while since the last meeting — 17 September 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Utsikten
0
Draws
1
Dalkurd FF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Utsikten and Dalkurd FF?
From 2 meetings on record, Utsikten have won 1, Dalkurd FF have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Utsikten and Dalkurd FF last play each other?
They last met on 17 September 2022, when Dalkurd FF 4-1 Utsikten.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Utsikten home games / Dalkurd FF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Dominant Utsikten run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Dalkurd FF.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Utsikten beat Dalkurd FF 3-0 at Bravida Arena, Regular Season - 6, in the Superettan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Utsikten 1.64 xG and Dalkurd FF 1.07 xG, a combined 2.71. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Utsikten beat their projection by 1.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Dalkurd FF landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Utsikten attack 1.06 / defence 1.33 against Dalkurd FF attack 0.59 / defence 1.08, drawn from 5/5 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Utsikten 51% | Draw 25% | Dalkurd FF 25%, with Utsikten to win its most likely call at 51%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.