Umeå FC 2-2 Ostersunds FK – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Ostersunds FK at 48% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Umeå FC face Ostersunds FK.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Umeå FC host Ostersunds FK at Umea Energi Arena in Superettan (matchday 3). Kick-off is Saturday 12 April 2025 at 17:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Across their last 10 games, Ostersunds FK have recorded 3W 2D 5L — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L L D W W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling, Ostersunds FK have posted 1W 2D 7L from their last 10 away outings — 0.50 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Umeå FC 0.80 xG and Ostersunds FK 1.28 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Umeå FC attack 0.706 / defence 1.120 | Ostersunds FK attack 0.935 / defence 0.958. League average goals — home 1.176 / away 1.224. Umeå FC's attack rating of 0.706 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.80. Data: built from Umeå FC's last 2 games and Ostersunds FK's last 32. Some of those games are older results, so treat these probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Umeå FC 23% | Draw 29% | Ostersunds FK 48%. Fair-value odds: Umeå FC 4.32 | Draw 3.45 | Ostersunds FK 2.09. Ostersunds FK hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS Yes probability 40% | Total xG 2.08. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.08 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 60% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Ostersunds FK at 48% — moderate model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Ostersunds FK offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.08 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 66% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
The Poisson model's sample (Umeå FC 2 games, Ostersunds FK 32) includes some older results, so its projections carry extra uncertainty — weight recent form and the odds accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Umeå FC vs Ostersunds FK | Competition: Superettan, matchday 3 | Venue: Umea Energi Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 12 April 2025 at 17:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Umeå FC 23% | Draw 29% | Ostersunds FK 48% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% (Under 66%) | BTTS Yes 40% (No 60%) | xG Umeå FC 0.80 / Ostersunds FK 1.28 • Poisson strength factors: Umeå FC attack 0.706 / def 1.120 | Ostersunds FK attack 0.935 / def 0.958 | league avg home 1.176 / away 1.224 • Poisson stance: Ostersunds FK (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.80
Umeå FC xG
Expected Goals
1.28
Ostersunds FK xG
40%
BTTS
61%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Umeå FC vs Ostersunds FK FAQs
What time does Umeå FC vs Ostersunds FK kick off?
Umeå FC vs Ostersunds FK kicked off at 17:00 UK time on Saturday 12 April 2025 at Umea Energi Arena.
What was the final score in Umeå FC vs Ostersunds FK?
Umeå FC 2 - 2 Ostersunds FK.
Where is Umeå FC vs Ostersunds FK being played?
The match is being played at Umea Energi Arena.
What competition is Umeå FC vs Ostersunds FK part of?
Umeå FC vs Ostersunds FK is a Superettan fixture (matchday 3) (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Umeå FC vs Ostersunds FK?
Our statistical model gives Umeå FC a 23% chance of winning, Ostersunds FK a 48% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Ostersunds FK the favourite.
Will both teams score in Umeå FC vs Ostersunds FK?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Umeå FC and Ostersunds FK will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (60%).
Will Umeå FC vs Ostersunds FK have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (66%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Umeå FC's attack at 0.71x the league average against Ostersunds FK's defence at 0.96x — combine the two and it projects 0.80 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Ostersunds FK's attack versus Umeå FC's defence, projects 1.28 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Umeå FC's last 2 games and Ostersunds FK's last 32, a sample that still includes some older results.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (14.4%), 0-0 (14.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ostersunds FK Win
23%
4.32
29%
3.45
48%
2.09
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
16.0%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
0 – 0
12.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.80
Umeå FC xG
Total xG
2.08
1.28
Ostersunds FK xG
4.32
23%
Home win
3.45
29%
Draw
2.09
48%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.52
60%
BTTS No
1.66
Clean Sheet
28%
3.60
45%
2.22
Win to Nil
6%
15.58
22%
4.63
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.5 | 16.0 | 10.3 | 4.4 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 10.0 | 12.8 | 8.2 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 4.0 | 5.1 | 3.3 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Umeå FC vs Ostersunds FK Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Umeå FC vs Ostersunds FK?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Umeå FC and Ostersunds FK expected to score?
The model projects 0.80 expected goals for Umeå FC and 1.28 for Ostersunds FK, a combined total of 2.08.
How confident is the prediction model for Umeå FC vs Ostersunds FK?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Umeå FC
Pre-Season
Ostersunds FK
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
Umeå FC (Home) vs Ostersunds FK (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Umeå FC
Pre-Season
Ostersunds FK
Pre-Season
No results found for this venue split.
No results found for this venue split.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 2 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 1 year from April 2025. All of them came in Superettan. The most recent in our data was on 19 September 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Umeå FC
1
Draws
1
Ostersunds FK
Recent Meetings
❓ Umeå FC vs Ostersunds FK H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Umeå FC and Ostersunds FK?
Across the 2 head-to-head matches in our data, Umeå FC have won 0, Ostersunds FK have won 1, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Umeå FC and Ostersunds FK last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 19 September 2025: Ostersunds FK 3-0 Umeå FC.
Who has won more matches between Umeå FC and Ostersunds FK?
Ostersunds FK have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from the 2 head-to-head matches in our data.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Umeå FC home games / Ostersunds FK away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Umeå FC and Ostersunds FK share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Umeå FC and Ostersunds FK finished level at 2-2 at Umea Energi Arena, Regular Season - 3, in the Superettan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Umeå FC 0.80 xG and Ostersunds FK 1.28 xG, a combined 2.08. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Umeå FC beat their projection by 1.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Umeå FC attack 0.71 / defence 1.12 against Ostersunds FK attack 0.94 / defence 0.96, drawn from 2/32 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Umeå FC 23% | Draw 29% | Ostersunds FK 48%, with Ostersunds FK to win its most likely call at 48%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 61% and landed. Over 3.5 was 16% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.