Trelleborg 3-4 GIF Sundsvall – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Trelleborg at 46%, yet in-form GIF Sundsvall provide a compelling counter-argument — this Trelleborg vs GIF Sundsvall fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Trelleborg and GIF Sundsvall meet at Vångavallen in Superettan, Regular Season - 5. This fixture gets under way on Monday 1 May 2023 at 14:00 UTC.
Current Form
Trelleborg's overall Superettan record this term: 4W 0D 6L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: L W L L W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Trelleborg's form when playing at home: 5W 1D 4L across 10 games at Vångavallen this term (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
GIF Sundsvall (all games): 5W 4D 1L across 10 Superettan outings this term — 1.90 points per game. Last five: D D W D L. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 0.80. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. GIF Sundsvall haven't played a Superettan game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
GIF Sundsvall's form when playing away from home: 4W 3D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
GIF Sundsvall arrive in superior form — a 0.70 PPG advantage (1.90 vs 1.20) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Trelleborg register both teams scoring in 80% of relevant games, GIF Sundsvall in 70%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 2 meetings: Trelleborg 1W, GIF Sundsvall 1W, 0D.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 2 previous contests averaged 1.5 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 29 Sep 2021, ended 0–2 with GIF Sundsvall winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Trelleborg — key trading statistics (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (home games).
GIF Sundsvall — key trading statistics (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 70% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Trelleborg 70% and GIF Sundsvall 53% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Trelleborg 70% | GIF Sundsvall 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Trelleborg 1.27 xG and GIF Sundsvall 0.85 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Trelleborg attack 0.971 / defence 0.981 | GIF Sundsvall attack 0.885 / defence 0.977. League average goals — home 1.340 / away 0.981. Data: 34 Trelleborg games / 4 GIF Sundsvall games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Trelleborg 46% | Draw 29% | GIF Sundsvall 25%. Fair-value odds: Trelleborg 2.17 | Draw 3.45 | GIF Sundsvall 4.00. Trelleborg hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 2.12. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.12 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
Both sides post BTTS form rates above 65% but Poisson BTTS probability is only 41% — the model sees a defensive matchup that form results do not yet show.
The Poisson model's primary lean is Trelleborg at 46% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form GIF Sundsvall (1.90 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Trelleborg if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.12 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 36% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 41% on No. This conflicts with form data: Trelleborg 80% | GIF Sundsvall 70% from recent games — a notable divergence.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Trelleborg vs GIF Sundsvall | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Vångavallen • Kick-off: Monday 1 May 2023, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Trelleborg 46% | Draw 29% | GIF Sundsvall 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 41% | xG Trelleborg 1.27 / GIF Sundsvall 0.85 • Poisson strength factors: Trelleborg attack 0.971 / def 0.981 | GIF Sundsvall attack 0.885 / def 0.977 | league avg home 1.340 / away 0.981 • Poisson stance: Trelleborg (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.27
Trelleborg xG
Expected Goals
0.85
GIF Sundsvall xG
41%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Trelleborg vs GIF Sundsvall kick off?
Trelleborg vs GIF Sundsvall kicked off at 14:00 on Monday 1 May 2023 at Vångavallen.
What was the final score in Trelleborg vs GIF Sundsvall?
Trelleborg 3 - 4 GIF Sundsvall.
Where is Trelleborg vs GIF Sundsvall being played?
The match is being played at Vångavallen.
What competition is Trelleborg vs GIF Sundsvall part of?
Trelleborg vs GIF Sundsvall is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Trelleborg vs GIF Sundsvall?
Our statistical model gives Trelleborg a 46% chance of winning, GIF Sundsvall a 25% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Trelleborg the favourite.
Will both teams score in Trelleborg vs GIF Sundsvall?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Trelleborg and GIF Sundsvall will score (BTTS).
Will Trelleborg vs GIF Sundsvall have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between Trelleborg and GIF Sundsvall?
Record (2 meetings): Trelleborg 1W | Draws 0 | GIF Sundsvall 1W.
What form are Trelleborg and GIF Sundsvall in?
Trelleborg (all comps): 4W-0D-6L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-L-L-W. GIF Sundsvall (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-D-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Trelleborg's attack rating (0.97) and GIF Sundsvall's defence rating (0.98), the model arrives at 1.27 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — GIF Sundsvall's attack (0.89x) against Trelleborg's defence (0.98x) — and the away total comes out at 0.85.
These ratings are built from 34/4 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.6%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.7%), 1-0 (13.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Trelleborg Win
46%
2.16
29%
3.46
25%
4.01
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
0 – 0
12.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.27
Trelleborg xG
Total xG
2.12
0.85
GIF Sundsvall xG
2.16
46%
Home win
3.46
29%
Draw
4.01
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.42
59%
BTTS No
1.70
Clean Sheet
43%
2.34
28%
3.56
Win to Nil
20%
5.08
7%
14.30
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.0 | 10.2 | 4.3 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 15.2 | 13.0 | 5.5 | 1.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.7 | 8.2 | 3.5 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.1 | 3.5 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Trelleborg vs GIF Sundsvall?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Trelleborg and GIF Sundsvall expected to score?
The model projects 1.27 expected goals for Trelleborg and 0.85 for GIF Sundsvall, a combined total of 2.12.
How confident is the prediction model for Trelleborg vs GIF Sundsvall?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Trelleborg come into this having played 30 games, going 13W 6D 11L for 1.50 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L-L-W.
On the other side, GIF Sundsvall sit at 1.77 PPG from 30 outings (15W 8D 7L), a run that reads D-D-W-D-L across their last five. GIF Sundsvall haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.50 PPG for Trelleborg against 1.77 for GIF Sundsvall. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Trelleborg's home form reads 7W 3D 5L across 15 games on their own ground, a 1.60 PPG return.
Away from home, GIF Sundsvall have taken 1.47 points per game from 15 outings (6W 4D 5L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Trelleborg are averaging 1.53 goals scored and 1.63 conceded per game recently; GIF Sundsvall are on 1.53 scored and 0.97 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Trelleborg have seen both teams score in 70% of their recent games.
Last 30 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Trelleborg
Current Season
GIF Sundsvall
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Trelleborg and GIF Sundsvall in coming into this match?
Trelleborg have gone 13W 6D 11L in their last 30 games (1.50 PPG), while GIF Sundsvall have gone 15W 8D 7L in their last 30 (1.77 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Trelleborg at home or GIF Sundsvall away?
Trelleborg's home record (1.60 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Trelleborg at home: 1.60 PPG; GIF Sundsvall away: 1.47 PPG.
Have Trelleborg or GIF Sundsvall been keeping clean sheets recently?
Trelleborg have kept a clean sheet in 13% of their recent games, GIF Sundsvall in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since June 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. They last met on 5 October 2025, roughly 10 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Trelleborg have gone 3W 0D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against GIF Sundsvall — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Trelleborg
1
Draws
4
GIF Sundsvall
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Trelleborg and GIF Sundsvall?
From 8 meetings on record, Trelleborg have won 3, GIF Sundsvall have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Trelleborg and GIF Sundsvall last play each other?
They last met on 5 October 2025, when Trelleborg 2-1 GIF Sundsvall.
Who has won more matches between Trelleborg and GIF Sundsvall?
GIF Sundsvall have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Trelleborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
GIF Sundsvall see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 73% for Trelleborg, 60% for GIF Sundsvall — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 73% (Trelleborg) and 40% (GIF Sundsvall). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 27% and 7% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: GIF Sundsvall in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Trelleborg home games / GIF Sundsvall away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Trelleborg play GIF Sundsvall?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 73% of Trelleborg's games and 60% of GIF Sundsvall's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Trelleborg vs GIF Sundsvall usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 73% of Trelleborg's matches and 40% of GIF Sundsvall's.
Do Trelleborg and GIF Sundsvall tend to score early?
Trelleborg have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, GIF Sundsvall in 53% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as GIF Sundsvall defy the odds to beat Trelleborg 3-4.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
GIF Sundsvall beat Trelleborg 3-4 at Vångavallen, Regular Season - 5, in the Superettan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Trelleborg 1.27 xG and GIF Sundsvall 0.85 xG, a combined 2.12. The scoreboard read 3-4 for 7 actual goals. Trelleborg beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. GIF Sundsvall outscored their 0.85 projection by 3.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Trelleborg attack 0.97 / defence 0.98 against GIF Sundsvall attack 0.89 / defence 0.98, drawn from 34/4 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Trelleborg 46% | Draw 29% | GIF Sundsvall 25%, with Trelleborg to win its most likely call at 46%. Instead the game produced a GIF Sundsvall win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. Over 3.5 was 17% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Trelleborg 70%, GIF Sundsvall 40%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Trelleborg's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did.
GIF Sundsvall's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Trelleborg 1.50 PPG, GIF Sundsvall 1.77 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the GIF Sundsvall win broke the near-deadlock. Trelleborg (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.53 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 1.47 concession average — a leakier day than usual. GIF Sundsvall (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.27 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.07 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.