Skövde AIK 3-1 Gefle IF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Skövde AIK at 59% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Skövde AIK face Gefle IF.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Skövde AIK welcome Gefle IF to Södermalms IP in Superettan (matchday 26). Kick-off is Saturday 7 October 2023 at 15:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Skövde AIK have gone 4W 0D 6L — a 1.20 PPG return. Last five: L L W W L. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters, Skövde AIK have posted 5W 1D 4L from their last 10 home games — 1.60 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Gefle IF — last 10 games: 4W 2D 4L — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W D L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
When travelling, Gefle IF have posted 1W 4D 5L from their last 10 away outings — 0.70 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.20 PPG (Skövde AIK) versus 1.40 (Gefle IF). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 1 H2H match, Skövde AIK have won 0, Gefle IF 1, with 0 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 5.0 per game across the 1 H2H match we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 14 May 2023, ended Skövde AIK 1–4 Gefle IF — a Gefle IF win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 5.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Skövde AIK in-play tendencies (last 25 games, 12 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 58% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 36% of games.
Gefle IF in-play tendencies (last 25 games, 12 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 71% of those occasions; of the 10 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 30%; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Skövde AIK 52% versus Gefle IF 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Skövde AIK 60% | Gefle IF 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Skövde AIK 2.10 xG and Gefle IF 1.13 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Skövde AIK attack 1.215 / defence 0.969 | Gefle IF attack 0.916 / defence 1.067. League average goals — home 1.625 / away 1.278. Data: built from Skövde AIK's last 55 games and Gefle IF's last 25.
Result probabilities: Skövde AIK 59% | Draw 22% | Gefle IF 19%. Fair-value odds: Skövde AIK 1.70 | Draw 4.45 | Gefle IF 5.31. The model has a clear lean to Skövde AIK (59%) — a 37pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS Yes probability 60% | Total xG 3.24. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.24 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% — both xG figures (2.10 / 1.13) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Skövde AIK are the pick at 59% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.24 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 63% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Skövde AIK's last 10 home games and Gefle IF's last 10 away games) averaging 2.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 60%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Skövde AIK 50% (last 10 home games) | Gefle IF 70% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Skövde AIK vs Gefle IF | Competition: Superettan, matchday 26 | Venue: Södermalms IP • Kick-off: Saturday 7 October 2023 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Skövde AIK 59% | Draw 22% | Gefle IF 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% (Under 37%) | BTTS Yes 60% (No 40%) | xG Skövde AIK 2.10 / Gefle IF 1.13 • Poisson strength factors: Skövde AIK attack 1.215 / def 0.969 | Gefle IF attack 0.916 / def 1.067 | league avg home 1.625 / away 1.278 • Poisson stance: Skövde AIK (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.10
Skövde AIK xG
Expected Goals
1.13
Gefle IF xG
60%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Skövde AIK vs Gefle IF FAQs
What time does Skövde AIK vs Gefle IF kick off?
Skövde AIK vs Gefle IF kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Saturday 7 October 2023 at Södermalms IP.
What was the final score in Skövde AIK vs Gefle IF?
Skövde AIK 3 - 1 Gefle IF.
Where is Skövde AIK vs Gefle IF being played?
The match is being played at Södermalms IP.
What competition is Skövde AIK vs Gefle IF part of?
Skövde AIK vs Gefle IF is a Superettan fixture (matchday 26) (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Skövde AIK vs Gefle IF?
Our statistical model gives Skövde AIK a 59% chance of winning, Gefle IF a 19% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Skövde AIK the favourite.
Will both teams score in Skövde AIK vs Gefle IF?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Skövde AIK and Gefle IF will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Skövde AIK vs Gefle IF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Skövde AIK's attack at 1.22x the league average against Gefle IF's defence at 1.07x — combine the two and it projects 2.10 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Gefle IF's attack versus Skövde AIK's defence, projects 1.13 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Skövde AIK's last 55 games and Gefle IF's last 25 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (8.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Skövde AIK Win
59%
1.70
22%
4.45
19%
5.31
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.4%
Draw
2 – 0
8.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.10
Skövde AIK xG
Total xG
3.24
1.13
Gefle IF xG
1.70
59%
Home win
4.45
22%
Draw
5.31
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
41%
Over 3.5
2.44
59%
Under 3.5
1.69
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.65
40%
BTTS No
2.53
Clean Sheet
32%
3.11
12%
8.21
Win to Nil
19%
5.29
2%
43.56
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.9 | 4.4 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.3 | 9.4 | 5.3 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.7 | 9.8 | 5.6 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.1 | 6.9 | 3.9 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.2 | 3.6 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Skövde AIK vs Gefle IF Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Skövde AIK vs Gefle IF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.6%.
How many goals are Skövde AIK and Gefle IF expected to score?
The model projects 2.10 expected goals for Skövde AIK and 1.13 for Gefle IF, a combined total of 3.24.
How confident is the prediction model for Skövde AIK vs Gefle IF?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Skövde AIK's recent record stands at 6W 4D 15L from 25 games, a 0.88 PPG return, with L-L-W-W-L in the last five.
Gefle IF, meanwhile, have gone 9W 6D 10L across 25 games — 1.32 PPG, with W-D-L-D-L in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Gefle IF by 0.44 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Skövde AIK heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Skövde AIK have managed 5W 3D 4L from their last 12 home games — 1.50 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 0.88 PPG overall — Skövde AIK are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Gefle IF's away record stands at 2W 4D 6L across their last 12 away games, a 0.83 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.32 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Gefle IF's recent record.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Skövde AIK come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Skövde AIK are averaging 1.28 goals scored and 1.88 conceded per game recently; Gefle IF are on 1.24 scored and 1.52 conceded.
Last 25 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Skövde AIK
Blended
Gefle IF
Blended
Skövde AIK (Home) vs Gefle IF (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Skövde AIK
Blended
Gefle IF
Blended
❓ Skövde AIK vs Gefle IF Form FAQs
What form are Skövde AIK and Gefle IF in coming into this match?
Skövde AIK have gone 6W 4D 15L in their last 25 games (0.88 PPG), while Gefle IF have gone 9W 6D 10L in their last 25 (1.32 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Skövde AIK at home or Gefle IF away?
Skövde AIK's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Skövde AIK at home: 1.50 PPG; Gefle IF away: 0.83 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 4 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 1 year from May 2023. All of them came in Superettan. The most recent in our data was on 1 September 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear recent trend here: Gefle IF have taken the most recent 2 H2H results in our data.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 14 May 2023, when Gefle IF won Gefle IF 4-1 Skövde AIK.
Skövde AIK's record when hosting Gefle IF specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Skövde AIK
0
Draws
3
Gefle IF
Recent Meetings
❓ Skövde AIK vs Gefle IF H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Skövde AIK and Gefle IF?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Skövde AIK have won 1, Gefle IF have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Skövde AIK and Gefle IF last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 1 September 2024: Skövde AIK 0-1 Gefle IF.
Who has won more matches between Skövde AIK and Gefle IF?
Gefle IF have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Skövde AIK see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Gefle IF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Skövde AIK 50%, Gefle IF 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Skövde AIK) and 50% (Gefle IF).
On the defensive side: Skövde AIK keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Skövde AIK home games / Gefle IF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Skövde AIK vs Gefle IF Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Skövde AIK and Gefle IF matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Skövde AIK's games and 67% of Gefle IF's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Skövde AIK and Gefle IF matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Skövde AIK's recent games and 50% of Gefle IF's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Skövde AIK and Gefle IF matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 58% of Skövde AIK's recent matches and 67% of Gefle IF's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Skövde AIK cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Gefle IF.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Skövde AIK beat Gefle IF 3-1 at Södermalms IP, Regular Season - 26, in the Superettan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Skövde AIK 2.10 xG and Gefle IF 1.13 xG, a combined 3.24. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Skövde AIK beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Skövde AIK attack 1.22 / defence 0.97 against Gefle IF attack 0.92 / defence 1.07, drawn from 55/25 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Skövde AIK 59% | Draw 22% | Gefle IF 19%, with Skövde AIK to win its most likely call at 59%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 41% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Skövde AIK 60%, Gefle IF 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Skövde AIK's trading profile (25 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Gefle IF's trading profile (25 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Gefle IF arrived the stronger side — 1.32 PPG against 0.88. Form was overturned, with Skövde AIK winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Skövde AIK (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.75 average — above their attacking norm. Gefle IF (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.50 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.