Skövde AIK 0-0 Gais – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Gais at 40% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Skövde AIK vs Gais encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Skövde AIK and Gais meet at Södermalms IP in Superettan, Regular Season - 13. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 9 July 2023 at 16:00 UTC.
Current Form
Skövde AIK's overall Superettan record this term: 1W 2D 7L from 10 games (0.50 PPG). Last five: L L D W L. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Skövde AIK, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Skövde AIK at Södermalms IP this season: 3W 5D 2L from 10 home games — 1.40 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.50 — Skövde AIK are significantly better at Södermalms IP than their overall form suggests.
Gais have collected 1.90 PPG across 10 Superettan outings this season: 6W 1D 3L. Last five: L D L W W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 0.70. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Gais, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Gais's form when playing away from home: 3W 2D 1L across 6 road games this term (1.83 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 0.83 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
On a straight form reading, Gais are the stronger side — 1.40 PPG clear of the hosts (1.90 vs 0.50). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Skövde AIK have seen both teams score in 70% of their games, Gais in 67%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Trading & In-Play
Skövde AIK — key trading statistics (12 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 40% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); they fail to score in 50% of games.
Gais — key trading statistics (12 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Skövde AIK 42% versus Gais 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Skövde AIK 50% | Gais 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Skövde AIK 1.16 xG and Gais 1.31 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Skövde AIK attack 0.903 / defence 1.152 | Gais attack 1.042 / defence 0.869. League average goals — home 1.481 / away 1.094. Data: 42 Skövde AIK games / 12 Gais games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Skövde AIK 33% | Draw 27% | Gais 40%. Fair-value odds: Skövde AIK 3.03 | Draw 3.70 | Gais 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.47. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.47 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Gais as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Gais if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.47 combined xG gives a 45% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 50%. Form rates corroborate: Skövde AIK 70% | Gais 67% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Skövde AIK vs Gais | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Södermalms IP • Kick-off: Sunday 9 Jul 2023, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Skövde AIK 33% | Draw 27% | Gais 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 50% | xG Skövde AIK 1.16 / Gais 1.31 • Poisson strength factors: Skövde AIK attack 0.903 / def 1.152 | Gais attack 1.042 / def 0.869 | league avg home 1.481 / away 1.094 • Poisson stance: Gais (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.16
Skövde AIK xG
Expected Goals
1.31
Gais xG
50%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Skövde AIK vs Gais kick off?
Skövde AIK vs Gais kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 9 July 2023 at Södermalms IP.
What was the final score in Skövde AIK vs Gais?
Skövde AIK 0 - 0 Gais.
Where is Skövde AIK vs Gais being played?
The match is being played at Södermalms IP.
What competition is Skövde AIK vs Gais part of?
Skövde AIK vs Gais is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Skövde AIK vs Gais?
Our statistical model gives Skövde AIK a 33% chance of winning, Gais a 40% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Gais the favourite.
Will both teams score in Skövde AIK vs Gais?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Skövde AIK and Gais will score (BTTS).
Will Skövde AIK vs Gais have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Skövde AIK and Gais?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Skövde AIK and Gais in?
Skövde AIK (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-D-W-L. Gais (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.70 | L5 L-D-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Skövde AIK's attack at 0.90x the league average against Gais's defence at 0.87x — combine the two and it projects 1.16 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Gais's attack (1.04x) against Skövde AIK's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 1.31.
These ratings are built from 42/12 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (10.1%), 0-1 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Gais Win
33%
3.04
27%
3.69
40%
2.50
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.1%
Away win
1 – 0
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.16
Skövde AIK xG
Total xG
2.47
1.31
Gais xG
3.04
33%
Home win
3.69
27%
Draw
2.50
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.99
50%
BTTS No
2.01
Clean Sheet
27%
3.72
31%
3.20
Win to Nil
9%
11.32
13%
7.97
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.4 | 11.1 | 7.3 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.8 | 12.8 | 8.4 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.7 | 7.5 | 4.9 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 2.9 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Skövde AIK vs Gais?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Skövde AIK and Gais expected to score?
The model projects 1.16 expected goals for Skövde AIK and 1.31 for Gais, a combined total of 2.47.
How confident is the prediction model for Skövde AIK vs Gais?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Skövde AIK's recent record stands at 1W 3D 8L from 12 games, a 0.50 PPG return, with L-L-D-W-L in the last five. The sample for Skövde AIK is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Gais, meanwhile, have gone 7W 2D 3L across 12 games — 1.92 PPG, with L-D-L-W-W in their last five. The sample for Gais is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Gais by 1.42 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Skövde AIK heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Skövde AIK have managed 1W 2D 2L from 5 games — 1.00 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 0.50 PPG overall — Skövde AIK are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Gais's away record stands at 3W 1D 1L across 5 trips, a 2.00 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Gais come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Skövde AIK are averaging 0.75 goals scored and 1.92 conceded per game recently; Gais are on 1.67 scored and 0.67 conceded.
Defensively: Gais in 42% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 12 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Skövde AIK
Blended
Gais
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Skövde AIK and Gais in coming into this match?
Skövde AIK have gone 1W 3D 8L in their last 12 games (0.50 PPG), while Gais have gone 7W 2D 3L in their last 12 (1.92 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Skövde AIK at home or Gais away?
Gais's away record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Skövde AIK at home: 1.00 PPG; Gais away: 2.00 PPG.
Have Skövde AIK or Gais been keeping clean sheets recently?
Skövde AIK have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, Gais in 42%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to July 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. It has been a while since the last meeting — 28 August 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Skövde AIK
1
Draws
1
Gais
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Skövde AIK and Gais?
From 2 meetings on record, Skövde AIK have won 0, Gais have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Skövde AIK and Gais last play each other?
They last met on 28 August 2023, when Gais 3-1 Skövde AIK.
Who has won more matches between Skövde AIK and Gais?
Gais have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Skövde AIK see a goal before the break in 40% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Gais are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Skövde AIK 60%, Gais 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 60% for Skövde AIK and 80% for Gais. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 0% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Skövde AIK keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Gais in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Skövde AIK home games / Gais away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Skövde AIK play Gais?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Skövde AIK's games and 60% of Gais's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Skövde AIK vs Gais usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Skövde AIK's matches and 80% of Gais's.
Do Skövde AIK and Gais tend to score early?
Skövde AIK have had a goal before half-time in 40% of their recent matches, Gais in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Skövde AIK's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Skövde AIK and Gais finished level at 0-0 at Södermalms IP, Regular Season - 13, in the Superettan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Skövde AIK 1.16 xG and Gais 1.31 xG, a combined 2.47. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Skövde AIK fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Gais landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Skövde AIK attack 0.90 / defence 1.15 against Gais attack 1.04 / defence 0.87, drawn from 42/12 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Skövde AIK 33% | Draw 27% | Gais 40%, with Gais to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 71% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Skövde AIK 50%, Gais 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Skövde AIK's trading profile (12 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 50% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Gais's trading profile (12 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Gais arrived the stronger side — 1.92 PPG against 0.50. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Skövde AIK (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.40 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.60 average — tighter than their form line. Gais (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.60 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.80 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.