Sandviken 2-0 Landskrona BoIS – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sandviken at 39% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Sandviken face Landskrona BoIS.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Sandviken welcome Landskrona BoIS to Arena Jernvallen in Superettan (matchday 19). Kick-off is Sunday 18 August 2024 at 15:00 UK time.
Form Guide
Sandviken — last 10 games: 5W 2D 3L, averaging 1.70 points per game. Last five: L L L W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
Sandviken's form when playing at home: 6W 0D 2L across their last 8 home games (2.25 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 3 home clean sheets from their last 8 home games (38%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 2.25 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.70 — Sandviken are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Landskrona BoIS stand at 6W 2D 2L — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W D L W D. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.30. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling, Landskrona BoIS have posted 5W 3D 2L from their last 10 away outings — 1.80 PPG. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Sandviken at 1.70 PPG versus Landskrona BoIS's 2.00. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 1 H2H match, Sandviken have won 0, Landskrona BoIS 1, with 0 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 1 H2H match in our data averaged 4.0 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 31 Mar 2024, ended Sandviken 0–4 Landskrona BoIS — a Landskrona BoIS win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 4.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Sandviken in-play and half-time data (last 18 games, 8 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; of the 4 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 50%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
Landskrona BoIS in-play and half-time data (last 18 games, 8 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 88% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 25% of the time; they lead at the break 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 88% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sandviken 50% versus Landskrona BoIS 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sandviken 61% | Landskrona BoIS 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sandviken 1.40 xG and Landskrona BoIS 1.30 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sandviken attack 1.155 / defence 0.918 | Landskrona BoIS attack 1.213 / defence 0.844. League average goals — home 1.432 / away 1.170. Landskrona BoIS have an above-average attack rating of 1.213, which lifts their away xG to 1.30. Data: built from Sandviken's last 18 games and Landskrona BoIS's last 48.
Result probabilities: Sandviken 39% | Draw 27% | Landskrona BoIS 34%. Fair-value odds: Sandviken 2.59 | Draw 3.68 | Landskrona BoIS 2.92. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS Yes probability 55% | Total xG 2.70. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.70 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 55% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Sandviken at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sandviken offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.70 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 51% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Sandviken's last 8 home games and Landskrona BoIS's last 10 away games) averaging 2.7 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Sandviken 50% (last 8 home games) | Landskrona BoIS 70% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sandviken vs Landskrona BoIS | Competition: Superettan, matchday 19 | Venue: Arena Jernvallen • Kick-off: Sunday 18 August 2024 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sandviken 39% | Draw 27% | Landskrona BoIS 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% (Under 49%) | BTTS Yes 55% (No 45%) | xG Sandviken 1.40 / Landskrona BoIS 1.30 • Poisson strength factors: Sandviken attack 1.155 / def 0.918 | Landskrona BoIS attack 1.213 / def 0.844 | league avg home 1.432 / away 1.170 • Poisson stance: Sandviken (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.40
Sandviken xG
Expected Goals
1.30
Landskrona BoIS xG
55%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Sandviken vs Landskrona BoIS FAQs
What time does Sandviken vs Landskrona BoIS kick off?
Sandviken vs Landskrona BoIS kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Sunday 18 August 2024 at Arena Jernvallen.
What was the final score in Sandviken vs Landskrona BoIS?
Sandviken 2 - 0 Landskrona BoIS.
Where is Sandviken vs Landskrona BoIS being played?
The match is being played at Arena Jernvallen.
What competition is Sandviken vs Landskrona BoIS part of?
Sandviken vs Landskrona BoIS is a Superettan fixture (matchday 19) (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Sandviken vs Landskrona BoIS?
Our statistical model gives Sandviken a 39% chance of winning, Landskrona BoIS a 34% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Sandviken the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sandviken vs Landskrona BoIS?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Sandviken and Landskrona BoIS will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Sandviken vs Landskrona BoIS have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Sandviken's attack at 1.16x the league average against Landskrona BoIS's defence at 0.84x — combine the two and it projects 1.40 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Landskrona BoIS's attack versus Sandviken's defence, projects 1.30 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Sandviken's last 18 games and Landskrona BoIS's last 48 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.5%), 0-0 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sandviken Win
39%
2.59
27%
3.68
34%
2.92
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.4%
Home win
0 – 1
8.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.40
Sandviken xG
Total xG
2.70
1.30
Landskrona BoIS xG
2.59
39%
Home win
3.68
27%
Draw
2.92
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.80
45%
BTTS No
2.24
Clean Sheet
27%
3.68
25%
4.04
Win to Nil
10%
9.54
8%
11.78
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.7 | 8.8 | 5.7 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.4 | 12.2 | 8.0 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 8.5 | 5.6 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 4.0 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Sandviken vs Landskrona BoIS Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Sandviken vs Landskrona BoIS?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Sandviken and Landskrona BoIS expected to score?
The model projects 1.40 expected goals for Sandviken and 1.30 for Landskrona BoIS, a combined total of 2.70.
How confident is the prediction model for Sandviken vs Landskrona BoIS?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 18 outings, Sandviken have picked up 1.56 PPG on a 8W 4D 6L record — L-L-L-W-D across the most recent five.
Landskrona BoIS's form line: 11W 5D 2L from 18 games, 2.11 PPG, last five W-D-L-W-D.
Put side by side, Landskrona BoIS are the form team by 0.55 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Sandviken.
Venue Form
On home soil, Sandviken have posted 2.25 PPG from their last 8 home games (6W 0D 2L). That's noticeably better than their 1.56 PPG overall — Sandviken are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Landskrona BoIS have gone 5W 2D 1L from their last 8 away games — 2.12 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Sandviken are averaging 1.56 goals scored and 1.28 conceded per game recently; Landskrona BoIS are on 1.78 scored and 0.94 conceded.
Defensively: Landskrona BoIS in 39% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 18 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sandviken
Blended
Landskrona BoIS
Blended
Sandviken (Home) vs Landskrona BoIS (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Sandviken
Blended
Landskrona BoIS
Blended
❓ Sandviken vs Landskrona BoIS Form FAQs
What form are Sandviken and Landskrona BoIS in coming into this match?
Sandviken have gone 8W 4D 6L in their last 18 games (1.56 PPG), while Landskrona BoIS have gone 11W 5D 2L in their last 18 (2.11 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sandviken at home or Landskrona BoIS away?
Sandviken's home record (2.25 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sandviken at home: 2.25 PPG; Landskrona BoIS away: 2.12 PPG.
Have Sandviken or Landskrona BoIS been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sandviken have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Landskrona BoIS in 39%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 6 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 2 years from March 2024. All of them came in Superettan. The most recent was as recently as 10 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear recent trend here: Landskrona BoIS have taken the most recent 4 H2H results in our data.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 31 Mar 2024, when Landskrona BoIS won Landskrona BoIS 4-0 Sandviken.
Sandviken's record when hosting Landskrona BoIS specifically: 1W 0D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Sandviken
0
Draws
5
Landskrona BoIS
Recent Meetings
❓ Sandviken vs Landskrona BoIS H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Sandviken and Landskrona BoIS?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Sandviken have won 1, Landskrona BoIS have won 5, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Sandviken and Landskrona BoIS last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 10 October 2026: Landskrona BoIS 3-2 Sandviken.
Who has won more matches between Sandviken and Landskrona BoIS?
Landskrona BoIS have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Sandviken are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Landskrona BoIS are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 62% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Sandviken at 50%, Landskrona BoIS at 88%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 62% for Sandviken and 62% for Landskrona BoIS. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 38% and 38% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Sandviken keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sandviken home games / Landskrona BoIS away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Sandviken vs Landskrona BoIS Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Sandviken and Landskrona BoIS matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Sandviken's games and 88% of Landskrona BoIS's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Sandviken and Landskrona BoIS matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of Sandviken's matches and 62% of Landskrona BoIS's.
Do Sandviken and Landskrona BoIS matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 75% of Sandviken's recent matches and 88% of Landskrona BoIS's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Sandviken cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Landskrona BoIS.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sandviken beat Landskrona BoIS 2-0 at Arena Jernvallen, Regular Season - 19, in the Superettan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sandviken 1.40 xG and Landskrona BoIS 1.30 xG, a combined 2.70. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Landskrona BoIS landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sandviken attack 1.16 / defence 0.92 against Landskrona BoIS attack 1.21 / defence 0.84, drawn from 18/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sandviken 39% | Draw 27% | Landskrona BoIS 34%, with Sandviken to win its most likely call at 39%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sandviken 61%, Landskrona BoIS 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sandviken's trading profile (18 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Landskrona BoIS's trading profile (18 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Landskrona BoIS arrived the stronger side — 2.11 PPG against 1.56. Form was overturned, with Sandviken winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Landskrona BoIS (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.88 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.