Sandviken 1-2 GIF Sundsvall – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sandviken at 55%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sandviken vs GIF Sundsvall fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Sandviken and GIF Sundsvall meet at Arena Jernvallen in Superettan, Regular Season - 29. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 2 November 2024 at 14:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Sandviken have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 Superettan outings this season: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: L W W L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Sandviken's form when playing at home: 6W 2D 2L across 10 games at Arena Jernvallen this term (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — Sandviken are significantly better at Arena Jernvallen than their overall form suggests.
GIF Sundsvall's overall Superettan record this term: 3W 3D 4L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: L W L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
GIF Sundsvall away from home this season: 2W 3D 5L from 10 away games — 0.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.50 vs 1.20 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Sandviken, 0 for GIF Sundsvall and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 1 previous contests averaged 0.0 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 22 May 2024, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading
Sandviken half-time and goal-timing data (28 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 50%.
GIF Sundsvall half-time and goal-timing data (28 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 29% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games); they fail to score in 43% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sandviken 54% versus GIF Sundsvall 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sandviken 64% | GIF Sundsvall 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sandviken 1.77 xG and GIF Sundsvall 0.96 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sandviken attack 1.221 / defence 1.015 | GIF Sundsvall attack 0.815 / defence 1.024. League average goals — home 1.414 / away 1.157. Data: 28 Sandviken games / 58 GIF Sundsvall games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sandviken 55% | Draw 26% | GIF Sundsvall 19%. Fair-value odds: Sandviken 1.82 | Draw 3.85 | GIF Sundsvall 5.26. The model has a clear lean to Sandviken (55%) — a 36pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.73. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.73 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Sandviken as the most likely outcome at 55% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 26% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.73 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 51% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Sandviken 50% | GIF Sundsvall 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sandviken vs GIF Sundsvall | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Arena Jernvallen • Kick-off: Saturday 2 Nov 2024, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sandviken 55% | Draw 26% | GIF Sundsvall 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 52% | xG Sandviken 1.77 / GIF Sundsvall 0.96 • Poisson strength factors: Sandviken attack 1.221 / def 1.015 | GIF Sundsvall attack 0.815 / def 1.024 | league avg home 1.414 / away 1.157 • Poisson stance: Sandviken (55%) — strong lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.77
Sandviken xG
Expected Goals
0.96
GIF Sundsvall xG
52%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sandviken vs GIF Sundsvall kick off?
Sandviken vs GIF Sundsvall kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 2 November 2024 at Arena Jernvallen.
What was the final score in Sandviken vs GIF Sundsvall?
Sandviken 1 - 2 GIF Sundsvall.
Where is Sandviken vs GIF Sundsvall being played?
The match is being played at Arena Jernvallen.
What competition is Sandviken vs GIF Sundsvall part of?
Sandviken vs GIF Sundsvall is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Sandviken vs GIF Sundsvall?
Our statistical model gives Sandviken a 55% chance of winning, GIF Sundsvall a 19% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Sandviken the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sandviken vs GIF Sundsvall?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Sandviken and GIF Sundsvall will score (BTTS).
Will Sandviken vs GIF Sundsvall have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sandviken and GIF Sundsvall?
Record (1 meetings): Sandviken 0W | Draws 1 | GIF Sundsvall 0W.
What form are Sandviken and GIF Sundsvall in?
Sandviken (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-W-L-D. GIF Sundsvall (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-W-L-L-D.
What do the betting odds say about Sandviken vs GIF Sundsvall?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Sandviken's attack rating (1.22) and GIF Sundsvall's defence rating (1.02), the model arrives at 1.77 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — GIF Sundsvall's attack (0.81x) against Sandviken's defence (1.01x) — and the away total comes out at 0.96.
These ratings are built from 28/58 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.5%. Close behind: 2-0 (10.2%), 1-0 (10.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sandviken Win
55%
1.81
26%
3.90
19%
5.24
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
2 – 0
10.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.77
Sandviken xG
Total xG
2.73
0.96
GIF Sundsvall xG
1.81
55%
Home win
3.90
26%
Draw
5.24
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.91
48%
BTTS No
2.10
Clean Sheet
38%
2.61
17%
5.86
Win to Nil
21%
4.71
3%
30.76
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.5 | 6.3 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 11.6 | 11.1 | 5.3 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.2 | 9.8 | 4.7 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.0 | 5.8 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.7 | 2.6 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sandviken vs GIF Sundsvall?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.5%.
How many goals are Sandviken and GIF Sundsvall expected to score?
The model projects 1.77 expected goals for Sandviken and 0.96 for GIF Sundsvall, a combined total of 2.73.
How confident is the prediction model for Sandviken vs GIF Sundsvall?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Sandviken's recent record stands at 12W 7D 9L from 28 games, a 1.54 PPG return, with L-W-W-L-D in the last five.
GIF Sundsvall, meanwhile, have gone 7W 7D 14L across 28 games — 1.00 PPG, with L-W-L-L-D in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Sandviken by 0.54 — a real, if not enormous, edge over GIF Sundsvall heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Sandviken have managed 9W 2D 3L from 14 games — 2.07 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.54 PPG overall — Sandviken are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
GIF Sundsvall's away record stands at 2W 3D 9L across 14 trips, a 0.64 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sandviken come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Sandviken are averaging 1.68 goals scored and 1.32 conceded per game recently; GIF Sundsvall are on 0.86 scored and 1.39 conceded.
Last 28 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sandviken
Current Season
GIF Sundsvall
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sandviken and GIF Sundsvall in coming into this match?
Sandviken have gone 12W 7D 9L in their last 28 games (1.54 PPG), while GIF Sundsvall have gone 7W 7D 14L in their last 28 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sandviken at home or GIF Sundsvall away?
Sandviken's home record (2.07 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sandviken at home: 2.07 PPG; GIF Sundsvall away: 0.64 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 5 times since May 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. The two were last together as recently as 30 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Sandviken won 0-3 on 30 May 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Sandviken have gone 0W 0D 2L from 2 meetings on their own ground against GIF Sundsvall — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 5 Meetings
1
Sandviken
1
Draws
3
GIF Sundsvall
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sandviken and GIF Sundsvall?
From 5 meetings on record, Sandviken have won 1, GIF Sundsvall have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Sandviken and GIF Sundsvall last play each other?
They last met on 30 May 2026, when GIF Sundsvall 0-3 Sandviken.
Who has won more matches between Sandviken and GIF Sundsvall?
GIF Sundsvall have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Sandviken are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 21% of those situations.
GIF Sundsvall are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sandviken 50%, GIF Sundsvall 29% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 64% (Sandviken) and 36% (GIF Sundsvall).
On the defensive side: Sandviken keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; GIF Sundsvall in 64%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sandviken home games / GIF Sundsvall away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sandviken play GIF Sundsvall?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Sandviken's recent matches and 29% of GIF Sundsvall's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sandviken vs GIF Sundsvall usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 64% of Sandviken's recent games and 36% of GIF Sundsvall's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sandviken and GIF Sundsvall tend to score early?
Sandviken have had a goal before half-time in 86% of their recent matches, GIF Sundsvall in 86% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as GIF Sundsvall defy the odds to beat Sandviken 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
GIF Sundsvall beat Sandviken 1-2 at Arena Jernvallen, Regular Season - 29, in the Superettan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sandviken 1.77 xG and GIF Sundsvall 0.96 xG, a combined 2.73. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. GIF Sundsvall outscored their 0.96 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sandviken attack 1.22 / defence 1.01 against GIF Sundsvall attack 0.81 / defence 1.02, drawn from 28/58 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sandviken 55% | Draw 26% | GIF Sundsvall 19%, with Sandviken to win its most likely call at 55%. Instead the game produced a GIF Sundsvall win, an outcome the model had rated at just 19% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sandviken 64%, GIF Sundsvall 43%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sandviken's trading profile (28 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
GIF Sundsvall's trading profile (28 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Sandviken arrived the stronger side — 1.54 PPG against 1.00. Form was overturned, with GIF Sundsvall winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Sandviken (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.07 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.86 concession average — a leakier day than usual. GIF Sundsvall (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.57 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.