Ostersunds FK 0-0 Orgryte IS – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Orgryte IS at 39% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Ostersunds FK vs Orgryte IS encounter.

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Analysis

Orgryte IS make the trip to Jämtkraft Arena to face Ostersunds FK in Superettan, Regular Season - 9. The match kicks off on Tuesday 24 May 2022 at 18:00 UTC.

Form & Momentum

Ostersunds FK have collected 0.70 PPG across 10 Superettan outings this season: 2W 1D 7L. Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 2.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.50 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Ostersunds FK haven't played a Superettan game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.

Ostersunds FK's form when playing at home: 2W 3D 5L across 10 games at Jämtkraft Arena this term (0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.

Orgryte IS's overall Superettan record this term: 3W 6D 1L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: W D W D W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.40. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.

Orgryte IS's away record: 4W 3D 3L from 10 road trips in Superettan this season (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

The travelling side arrive in better shape. Orgryte IS are 0.80 PPG clear of Ostersunds FK in recent Superettan fixtures (1.50 vs 0.70). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.

Trading Data

Ostersunds FK goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 47% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games); they fail to score in 40% of games.

Orgryte IS goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 27% of cases; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ostersunds FK 43% versus Orgryte IS 67%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ostersunds FK 50% | Orgryte IS 47%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Ostersunds FK 1.79 xG and Orgryte IS 1.84 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ostersunds FK attack 0.851 / defence 1.332 | Orgryte IS attack 0.981 / defence 1.415. League average goals — home 1.487 / away 1.408. Orgryte IS bring a strong defensive rating of 1.415 — this is suppressing Ostersunds FK's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 8 Ostersunds FK games / 38 Orgryte IS games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Ostersunds FK 37% | Draw 24% | Orgryte IS 39%. Fair-value odds: Ostersunds FK 2.70 | Draw 4.17 | Orgryte IS 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 70% | BTTS probability 71% | Total xG 3.63. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 70% — a total xG of 3.63 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 71% reflects that both xG figures (1.79 / 1.84) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.

Final Verdict

Form averages suggest only ~1.7 goals/game but Poisson projects Over 2.5 at 70% — underlying attack/defence strengths imply more goals than surface form shows.

Poisson rates Orgryte IS as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Orgryte IS if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

On the goals line, Poisson's 3.63 combined xG gives a 70% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 71%. Form rates are neutral: Ostersunds FK 40% | Orgryte IS 60%.

The outsider holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.

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