Ostersunds FK 4-1 Landskrona BoIS – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Ostersunds FK at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Ostersunds FK vs Landskrona BoIS fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Landskrona BoIS make the trip to Jämtkraft Arena to face Ostersunds FK in Superettan, Regular Season - 14. The match kicks off on Saturday 15 July 2023 at 16:00 UTC.
Current Form
Ostersunds FK's overall Superettan record this term: 3W 2D 5L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: L L L W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Ostersunds FK, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Ostersunds FK's home record at Jämtkraft Arena: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Superettan appearances (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Ostersunds FK are significantly better at Jämtkraft Arena than their overall form suggests.
Landskrona BoIS have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 Superettan outings this season: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: L D W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Landskrona BoIS, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Superettan this season, Landskrona BoIS have posted 2W 3D 5L from 10 away outings — 0.90 PPG. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.10 vs 1.50 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Ostersunds FK lead 1W to 0W over the last 2 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 2 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 7 Aug 2022, ended 3–1 with Ostersunds FK winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Ostersunds FK — key trading statistics (43 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games).
Landskrona BoIS — key trading statistics (43 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ostersunds FK 54% versus Landskrona BoIS 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ostersunds FK 40% | Landskrona BoIS 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ostersunds FK 1.44 xG and Landskrona BoIS 1.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ostersunds FK attack 1.086 / defence 1.197 | Landskrona BoIS attack 0.812 / defence 0.924. League average goals — home 1.432 / away 1.075. Data: 43 Ostersunds FK games / 43 Landskrona BoIS games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ostersunds FK 46% | Draw 26% | Landskrona BoIS 27%. Fair-value odds: Ostersunds FK 2.17 | Draw 3.85 | Landskrona BoIS 3.70. Ostersunds FK hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.48. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.48 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Ostersunds FK are the pick at 46% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Ostersunds FK if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.48 combined xG gives a 45% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 49%. Form rates corroborate: Ostersunds FK 60% | Landskrona BoIS 30% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ostersunds FK vs Landskrona BoIS | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Jämtkraft Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 15 Jul 2023, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ostersunds FK 46% | Draw 26% | Landskrona BoIS 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 49% | xG Ostersunds FK 1.44 / Landskrona BoIS 1.04 • Poisson strength factors: Ostersunds FK attack 1.086 / def 1.197 | Landskrona BoIS attack 0.812 / def 0.924 | league avg home 1.432 / away 1.075 • Poisson stance: Ostersunds FK (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.44
Ostersunds FK xG
Expected Goals
1.04
Landskrona BoIS xG
49%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ostersunds FK vs Landskrona BoIS kick off?
Ostersunds FK vs Landskrona BoIS kicked off at 16:00 on Saturday 15 July 2023 at Jämtkraft Arena.
What was the final score in Ostersunds FK vs Landskrona BoIS?
Ostersunds FK 4 - 1 Landskrona BoIS.
Where is Ostersunds FK vs Landskrona BoIS being played?
The match is being played at Jämtkraft Arena.
What competition is Ostersunds FK vs Landskrona BoIS part of?
Ostersunds FK vs Landskrona BoIS is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Ostersunds FK vs Landskrona BoIS?
Our statistical model gives Ostersunds FK a 46% chance of winning, Landskrona BoIS a 27% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Ostersunds FK the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ostersunds FK vs Landskrona BoIS?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Ostersunds FK and Landskrona BoIS will score (BTTS).
Will Ostersunds FK vs Landskrona BoIS have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ostersunds FK and Landskrona BoIS?
Record (2 meetings): Ostersunds FK 1W | Draws 1 | Landskrona BoIS 0W.
What form are Ostersunds FK and Landskrona BoIS in?
Ostersunds FK (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-L-W-L. Landskrona BoIS (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-D-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Ostersunds FK's attack at 1.09x the league average against Landskrona BoIS's defence at 0.92x — combine the two and it projects 1.44 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Landskrona BoIS's attack (0.81x) against Ostersunds FK's defence (1.20x) — and the away total comes out at 1.04.
These ratings are built from 43/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (10.4%), 0-0 (10.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ostersunds FK Win
46%
2.17
26%
3.78
27%
3.64
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.0%
Home win
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.44
Ostersunds FK xG
Total xG
2.48
1.04
Landskrona BoIS xG
2.17
46%
Home win
3.78
26%
Draw
3.64
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.02
51%
BTTS No
1.98
Clean Sheet
35%
2.84
24%
4.21
Win to Nil
16%
6.17
7%
15.33
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.4 | 8.7 | 4.6 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.0 | 12.6 | 6.6 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.6 | 9.0 | 4.7 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.1 | 4.3 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ostersunds FK vs Landskrona BoIS?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Ostersunds FK and Landskrona BoIS expected to score?
The model projects 1.44 expected goals for Ostersunds FK and 1.04 for Landskrona BoIS, a combined total of 2.48.
How confident is the prediction model for Ostersunds FK vs Landskrona BoIS?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Ostersunds FK's recent record stands at 12W 14D 17L from 43 games, a 1.16 PPG return, with L-L-L-W-L in the last five. The sample for Ostersunds FK is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Landskrona BoIS, meanwhile, have gone 16W 14D 13L across 43 games — 1.44 PPG, with L-D-W-L-D in their last five. The sample for Landskrona BoIS is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.16 PPG for Ostersunds FK against 1.44 for Landskrona BoIS. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Ostersunds FK have managed 8W 7D 6L from 21 games — 1.48 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Landskrona BoIS's away record stands at 4W 7D 10L across 21 trips, a 0.90 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.44 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Landskrona BoIS's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Ostersunds FK come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Ostersunds FK are averaging 1.12 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game recently; Landskrona BoIS are on 1.26 scored and 1.35 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Landskrona BoIS in 60%.
Last 43 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ostersunds FK
Blended
Landskrona BoIS
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ostersunds FK and Landskrona BoIS in coming into this match?
Ostersunds FK have gone 12W 14D 17L in their last 43 games (1.16 PPG), while Landskrona BoIS have gone 16W 14D 13L in their last 43 (1.44 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ostersunds FK at home or Landskrona BoIS away?
Ostersunds FK's home record (1.48 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ostersunds FK at home: 1.48 PPG; Landskrona BoIS away: 0.90 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 9 times that we have on record, stretching back to July 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. The two were last together as recently as 18 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Ostersunds FK won 4-1 on 15 Jul 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Ostersunds FK have gone 4W 1D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Landskrona BoIS — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
5
Ostersunds FK
2
Draws
2
Landskrona BoIS
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ostersunds FK and Landskrona BoIS?
From 9 meetings on record, Ostersunds FK have won 5, Landskrona BoIS have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Ostersunds FK and Landskrona BoIS last play each other?
They last met on 18 July 2026, when Ostersunds FK 2-0 Landskrona BoIS.
Who has won more matches between Ostersunds FK and Landskrona BoIS?
Ostersunds FK have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Ostersunds FK see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Landskrona BoIS see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ostersunds FK 57%, Landskrona BoIS 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Ostersunds FK) and 43% (Landskrona BoIS).
On the defensive side: Ostersunds FK keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Landskrona BoIS in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ostersunds FK home games / Landskrona BoIS away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ostersunds FK play Landskrona BoIS?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 57% of Ostersunds FK's recent matches and 43% of Landskrona BoIS's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Ostersunds FK vs Landskrona BoIS usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Ostersunds FK's recent games and 43% of Landskrona BoIS's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Dominant Ostersunds FK run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Landskrona BoIS.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ostersunds FK beat Landskrona BoIS 4-1 at Jämtkraft Arena, Regular Season - 14, in the Superettan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ostersunds FK 1.44 xG and Landskrona BoIS 1.04 xG, a combined 2.48. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Ostersunds FK beat their projection by 2.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ostersunds FK attack 1.09 / defence 1.20 against Landskrona BoIS attack 0.81 / defence 0.92, drawn from 43/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ostersunds FK 46% | Draw 26% | Landskrona BoIS 27%, with Ostersunds FK to win its most likely call at 46%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. Over 3.5 was 24% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ostersunds FK 40%, Landskrona BoIS 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ostersunds FK's trading profile (43 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Landskrona BoIS's trading profile (43 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Ostersunds FK 1.16 PPG, Landskrona BoIS 1.44 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Ostersunds FK win broke the near-deadlock. Ostersunds FK (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.33 average — above their attacking norm. Landskrona BoIS (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.48 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.