Osters IF 2-2 Orgryte IS – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Osters IF at 47% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Osters IF vs Orgryte IS encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Osters IF and Orgryte IS meet at Visma Arena in Superettan, Regular Season - 28. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 22 October 2022 at 14:00 UTC.
Form
Osters IF (all games): 5W 3D 2L across 10 Superettan fixtures this term — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W L W D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 0.80 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Osters IF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Osters IF at Visma Arena this season: 6W 2D 2L from 10 home games — 2.00 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Orgryte IS's overall Superettan record this term: 5W 2D 3L from 10 games (1.70 PPG). Last five: L L W W D. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 0.90. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Orgryte IS, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Orgryte IS away from home this season: 4W 4D 2L from 10 away games — 1.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.80 PPG for Osters IF against 1.70 for Orgryte IS. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Osters IF register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, Orgryte IS in 70%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Osters IF lead 2W to 0W over the last 3 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 0.7 per game from 3 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 18 Apr 2022, ended 1–0 with Osters IF winning.
With a balanced win record and just 0.7 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading
Osters IF half-time and goal-timing data (57 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games).
Orgryte IS half-time and goal-timing data (57 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Osters IF 54% versus Orgryte IS 63%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Osters IF 42% | Orgryte IS 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Osters IF 1.69 xG and Orgryte IS 1.21 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Osters IF attack 1.178 / defence 0.919 | Orgryte IS attack 1.026 / defence 1.028. League average goals — home 1.393 / away 1.285. Data: 57 Osters IF games / 57 Orgryte IS games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Osters IF 47% | Draw 26% | Orgryte IS 26%. Fair-value odds: Osters IF 2.13 | Draw 3.85 | Orgryte IS 3.85. Osters IF hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.90. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.90 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Osters IF are the pick at 47% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Osters IF if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.90 combined xG gives a 55% probability to Over 2.5 — marginal — conflicting signals, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 0.7 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 58%. Form rates corroborate: Osters IF 70% | Orgryte IS 70% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Osters IF vs Orgryte IS | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Visma Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 22 Oct 2022, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Osters IF 47% | Draw 26% | Orgryte IS 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 58% | xG Osters IF 1.69 / Orgryte IS 1.21 • Poisson strength factors: Osters IF attack 1.178 / def 0.919 | Orgryte IS attack 1.026 / def 1.028 | league avg home 1.393 / away 1.285 • Poisson stance: Osters IF (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.69
Osters IF xG
Expected Goals
1.21
Orgryte IS xG
58%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Osters IF vs Orgryte IS kick off?
Osters IF vs Orgryte IS kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 22 October 2022 at Visma Arena.
What was the final score in Osters IF vs Orgryte IS?
Osters IF 2 - 2 Orgryte IS.
Where is Osters IF vs Orgryte IS being played?
The match is being played at Visma Arena.
What competition is Osters IF vs Orgryte IS part of?
Osters IF vs Orgryte IS is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Osters IF vs Orgryte IS?
Our statistical model gives Osters IF a 47% chance of winning, Orgryte IS a 26% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Osters IF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Osters IF vs Orgryte IS?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Osters IF and Orgryte IS will score (BTTS).
Will Osters IF vs Orgryte IS have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Osters IF and Orgryte IS?
Record (3 meetings): Osters IF 2W | Draws 1 | Orgryte IS 0W.
What form are Osters IF and Orgryte IS in?
Osters IF (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-L-W-D-W. Orgryte IS (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-L-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Osters IF's attack rating (1.18) and Orgryte IS's defence rating (1.03), the model arrives at 1.69 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Orgryte IS's attack (1.03x) against Osters IF's defence (0.92x) — and the away total comes out at 1.21.
These ratings are built from 57/57 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 2-0 (7.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Osters IF Win
47%
2.11
26%
3.81
26%
3.79
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
1 – 0
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.69
Osters IF xG
Total xG
2.90
1.21
Orgryte IS xG
2.11
47%
Home win
3.81
26%
Draw
3.79
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.71
42%
BTTS No
2.40
Clean Sheet
30%
3.36
19%
5.40
Win to Nil
14%
7.10
5%
20.47
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.5 | 6.7 | 4.0 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.3 | 11.3 | 6.8 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.8 | 9.5 | 5.8 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 5.3 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.9 | 2.2 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Osters IF vs Orgryte IS?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are Osters IF and Orgryte IS expected to score?
The model projects 1.69 expected goals for Osters IF and 1.21 for Orgryte IS, a combined total of 2.90.
How confident is the prediction model for Osters IF vs Orgryte IS?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Osters IF's recent record stands at 25W 18D 14L from 57 games, a 1.63 PPG return, with W-L-W-D-W in the last five. The sample for Osters IF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Orgryte IS, meanwhile, have gone 16W 24D 17L across 57 games — 1.26 PPG, with L-L-W-W-D in their last five. The sample for Orgryte IS is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.63 PPG for Osters IF against 1.26 for Orgryte IS. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Osters IF have managed 15W 8D 5L from 28 games — 1.89 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Orgryte IS's away record stands at 9W 9D 10L across 28 trips, a 1.29 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Osters IF come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Osters IF are averaging 1.37 goals scored and 0.98 conceded per game recently; Orgryte IS are on 1.37 scored and 1.37 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Orgryte IS in 63%.
Defensively: Osters IF have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 57 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Osters IF
Blended
Orgryte IS
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Osters IF and Orgryte IS in coming into this match?
Osters IF have gone 25W 18D 14L in their last 57 games (1.63 PPG), while Orgryte IS have gone 16W 24D 17L in their last 57 (1.26 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Osters IF at home or Orgryte IS away?
Osters IF's home record (1.89 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Osters IF at home: 1.89 PPG; Orgryte IS away: 1.29 PPG.
Have Osters IF or Orgryte IS been keeping clean sheets recently?
Osters IF have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Orgryte IS in 23%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to April 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. It has been a while since the last meeting — 17 August 2024, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Osters IF have gone 2W 2D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Orgryte IS — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Osters IF
4
Draws
0
Orgryte IS
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Osters IF and Orgryte IS?
From 8 meetings on record, Osters IF have won 4, Orgryte IS have won 0, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Osters IF and Orgryte IS last play each other?
They last met on 17 August 2024, when Osters IF 1-0 Orgryte IS.
Who has won more matches between Osters IF and Orgryte IS?
Osters IF have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Osters IF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time.
Orgryte IS are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Osters IF 57%, Orgryte IS 68% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Osters IF) and 57% (Orgryte IS).
On the defensive side: Osters IF keep a clean sheet in 39% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Osters IF home games / Orgryte IS away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Osters IF play Orgryte IS?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of Osters IF's games and 68% of Orgryte IS's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Osters IF vs Orgryte IS usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Osters IF's recent games and 57% of Orgryte IS's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Osters IF and Orgryte IS tend to score early?
Osters IF have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Orgryte IS in 82% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Osters IF and Orgryte IS share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Visma Arena, Regular Season - 28, as Osters IF and Orgryte IS drew 2-2 in the Superettan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Osters IF 1.69 xG and Orgryte IS 1.21 xG, a combined 2.90. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Osters IF attack 1.18 / defence 0.92 against Orgryte IS attack 1.03 / defence 1.03, drawn from 57/57 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Osters IF 47% | Draw 26% | Orgryte IS 26%, with Osters IF to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 33% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Osters IF 42%, Orgryte IS 49%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Osters IF's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Orgryte IS's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Osters IF 1.63 PPG, Orgryte IS 1.26 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Osters IF (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.96 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.