Osters IF 0-0 Orgryte IS – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Osters IF at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Osters IF vs Orgryte IS fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Osters IF and Orgryte IS meet at Visma Arena in Superettan, Regular Season - 17. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 22 August 2021 at 14:00 UTC.
Form
Osters IF (all games): 2W 3D 5L across 10 Superettan fixtures this term — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L W L D L. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Osters IF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Osters IF at Visma Arena this season: 3W 3D 2L from 8 home games — 1.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.88 goals scored and 0.75 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 8 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Visma Arena. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — Osters IF are significantly better at Visma Arena than their overall form suggests.
Orgryte IS's overall Superettan record this term: 3W 4D 3L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: W L W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Orgryte IS, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Orgryte IS away from home this season: 2W 2D 4L from 8 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.25 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 75% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 0.90 PPG for Osters IF against 1.30 for Orgryte IS. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Osters IF lead 1W to 0W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.0 per game from 1 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 11 Apr 2021, ended 1–0 with Osters IF winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading
Osters IF half-time and goal-timing data (16 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 38% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time; they fail to score in 44% of games.
Orgryte IS half-time and goal-timing data (16 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Osters IF 31% versus Orgryte IS 56%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Osters IF 25% | Orgryte IS 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Osters IF 1.14 xG and Orgryte IS 0.87 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Osters IF attack 0.707 / defence 0.907 | Orgryte IS attack 0.909 / defence 1.407. League average goals — home 1.149 / away 1.051. Osters IF's attack strength of 0.707 is below the league average — the 1.14 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Orgryte IS bring a strong defensive rating of 1.407 — this is suppressing Osters IF's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 16 Osters IF games / 16 Orgryte IS games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Osters IF 42% | Draw 30% | Orgryte IS 28%. Fair-value odds: Osters IF 2.38 | Draw 3.33 | Orgryte IS 3.57. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 2.01. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.01 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Osters IF are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Osters IF if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.01 combined xG gives a 33% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 39%. Form rates are neutral: Osters IF 38% | Orgryte IS 75%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Osters IF vs Orgryte IS | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Visma Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 22 Aug 2021, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Osters IF 42% | Draw 30% | Orgryte IS 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% | BTTS 39% | xG Osters IF 1.14 / Orgryte IS 0.87 • Poisson strength factors: Osters IF attack 0.707 / def 0.907 | Orgryte IS attack 0.909 / def 1.407 | league avg home 1.149 / away 1.051 • Poisson stance: Osters IF (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.14
Osters IF xG
Expected Goals
0.87
Orgryte IS xG
39%
BTTS
60%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Osters IF vs Orgryte IS kick off?
Osters IF vs Orgryte IS kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 22 August 2021 at Visma Arena.
What was the final score in Osters IF vs Orgryte IS?
Osters IF 0 - 0 Orgryte IS.
Where is Osters IF vs Orgryte IS being played?
The match is being played at Visma Arena.
What competition is Osters IF vs Orgryte IS part of?
Osters IF vs Orgryte IS is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Osters IF vs Orgryte IS?
Our statistical model gives Osters IF a 42% chance of winning, Orgryte IS a 28% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Osters IF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Osters IF vs Orgryte IS?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both Osters IF and Orgryte IS will score (BTTS).
Will Osters IF vs Orgryte IS have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%.
What is the head-to-head record between Osters IF and Orgryte IS?
Record (1 meetings): Osters IF 1W | Draws 0 | Orgryte IS 0W.
What form are Osters IF and Orgryte IS in?
Osters IF (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 0.80 | L5 L-W-L-D-L. Orgryte IS (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Osters IF's attack rating (0.71) and Orgryte IS's defence rating (1.41), the model arrives at 1.14 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Orgryte IS's attack (0.91x) against Osters IF's defence (0.91x) — and the away total comes out at 0.87.
These ratings are built from 16/16 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.1%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.0%), 1-0 (13.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Osters IF Win
42%
2.38
30%
3.29
28%
3.62
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.3%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.4%
Draw
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.14
Osters IF xG
Total xG
2.01
0.87
Orgryte IS xG
2.38
42%
Home win
3.29
30%
Draw
3.62
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.53
61%
BTTS No
1.65
Clean Sheet
42%
2.38
32%
3.14
Win to Nil
18%
5.66
9%
11.35
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.4 | 11.6 | 5.0 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 15.3 | 13.3 | 5.7 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.8 | 7.6 | 3.3 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.3 | 2.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Osters IF vs Orgryte IS?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Osters IF and Orgryte IS expected to score?
The model projects 1.14 expected goals for Osters IF and 0.87 for Orgryte IS, a combined total of 2.01.
How confident is the prediction model for Osters IF vs Orgryte IS?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Osters IF's recent record stands at 5W 4D 7L from 16 games, a 1.19 PPG return, with L-W-L-D-L in the last five. The sample for Osters IF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Orgryte IS, meanwhile, have gone 4W 6D 6L across 16 games — 1.12 PPG, with W-L-W-L-D in their last five. The sample for Orgryte IS is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.19 PPG for Osters IF against 1.12 for Orgryte IS. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Osters IF have managed 3W 3D 2L from 8 games — 1.50 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Orgryte IS's away record stands at 2W 2D 4L across 8 trips, a 1.00 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Osters IF come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Osters IF are averaging 0.75 goals scored and 0.94 conceded per game recently; Orgryte IS are on 1.00 scored and 1.38 conceded.
Defensively: Osters IF have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 16 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Osters IF
Blended
Orgryte IS
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Osters IF and Orgryte IS in coming into this match?
Osters IF have gone 5W 4D 7L in their last 16 games (1.19 PPG), while Orgryte IS have gone 4W 6D 6L in their last 16 (1.12 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Osters IF at home or Orgryte IS away?
Osters IF's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Osters IF at home: 1.50 PPG; Orgryte IS away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Osters IF or Orgryte IS been keeping clean sheets recently?
Osters IF have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their recent games, Orgryte IS in 25%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to April 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. It has been a while since the last meeting — 17 August 2024, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Osters IF have gone 2W 2D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Orgryte IS — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Osters IF
4
Draws
0
Orgryte IS
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Osters IF and Orgryte IS?
From 8 meetings on record, Osters IF have won 4, Orgryte IS have won 0, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Osters IF and Orgryte IS last play each other?
They last met on 17 August 2024, when Osters IF 1-0 Orgryte IS.
Who has won more matches between Osters IF and Orgryte IS?
Osters IF have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Osters IF see a goal before the break in 38% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Orgryte IS are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Osters IF 38%, Orgryte IS 75% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 25% (Osters IF) and 62% (Orgryte IS).
On the defensive side: Osters IF keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Osters IF have failed to score in 38% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Osters IF home games / Orgryte IS away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Osters IF play Orgryte IS?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 38% of Osters IF's games and 75% of Orgryte IS's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Osters IF vs Orgryte IS usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 25% of Osters IF's recent games and 62% of Orgryte IS's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Osters IF and Orgryte IS tend to score early?
Osters IF have had a goal before half-time in 38% of their recent matches, Orgryte IS in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Osters IF's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Visma Arena, Regular Season - 17, as Osters IF and Orgryte IS drew 0-0 in the Superettan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Osters IF 1.14 xG and Orgryte IS 0.87 xG, a combined 2.01. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Osters IF fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Orgryte IS landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Osters IF attack 0.71 / defence 0.91 against Orgryte IS attack 0.91 / defence 1.41, drawn from 16/16 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Osters IF 42% | Draw 30% | Orgryte IS 28%, with Osters IF to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 60% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 31% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Osters IF 25%, Orgryte IS 38%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Osters IF's trading profile (16 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 31% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 44% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Orgryte IS's trading profile (16 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Osters IF 1.19 PPG, Orgryte IS 1.12 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Osters IF (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.88 scoring average — below par going forward. Orgryte IS (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.25 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.