Osters IF 0-0 Norrby IF – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Norrby IF at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this Osters IF vs Norrby IF fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Osters IF host Norrby IF at Visma Arena in Superettan, Regular Season - 9. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 5 June 2021 at 14:00 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Osters IF 0.89 xG and Norrby IF 1.33 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Osters IF attack 0.908 / defence 1.330 | Norrby IF attack 0.949 / defence 1.119. League average goals — home 0.879 / away 1.058. Data: 8 Osters IF games / 9 Norrby IF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Osters IF 25% | Draw 28% | Norrby IF 47%. Fair-value odds: Osters IF 4.00 | Draw 3.57 | Norrby IF 2.13. Norrby IF hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.23. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.23 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Norrby IF at 47% — moderate model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Norrby IF offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.23 combined xG gives a 38% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Osters IF vs Norrby IF | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Visma Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 5 Jun 2021, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Osters IF 25% | Draw 28% | Norrby IF 47% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 44% | xG Osters IF 0.89 / Norrby IF 1.33 • Poisson strength factors: Osters IF attack 0.908 / def 1.330 | Norrby IF attack 0.949 / def 1.119 | league avg home 0.879 / away 1.058 • Poisson stance: Norrby IF (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.89
Osters IF xG
Expected Goals
1.33
Norrby IF xG
44%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Osters IF vs Norrby IF kick off?
Osters IF vs Norrby IF kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 5 June 2021 at Visma Arena.
What was the final score in Osters IF vs Norrby IF?
Osters IF 0 - 0 Norrby IF.
Where is Osters IF vs Norrby IF being played?
The match is being played at Visma Arena.
What competition is Osters IF vs Norrby IF part of?
Osters IF vs Norrby IF is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Osters IF vs Norrby IF?
Our statistical model gives Osters IF a 25% chance of winning, Norrby IF a 47% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Norrby IF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Osters IF vs Norrby IF?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Osters IF and Norrby IF will score (BTTS).
Will Osters IF vs Norrby IF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Osters IF and Norrby IF?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Osters IF and Norrby IF in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Osters IF's attack rating (0.91) and Norrby IF's defence rating (1.12), the model arrives at 0.89 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Norrby IF's attack versus Osters IF's defence, projects 1.33 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 8/9 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.5%. Close behind: 0-1 (12.7%), 0-0 (12.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Norrby IF Win
25%
3.99
28%
3.57
47%
2.13
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.4%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
0 – 0
10.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.89
Osters IF xG
Total xG
2.23
1.33
Norrby IF xG
3.99
25%
Home win
3.57
28%
Draw
2.13
47%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.30
56%
BTTS No
1.77
Clean Sheet
26%
3.80
41%
2.44
Win to Nil
7%
15.18
19%
5.20
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.8 | 14.4 | 9.6 | 4.3 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 9.6 | 12.8 | 8.6 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 4.3 | 5.7 | 3.8 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.3 | 1.7 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Osters IF vs Norrby IF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Osters IF and Norrby IF expected to score?
The model projects 0.89 expected goals for Osters IF and 1.33 for Norrby IF, a combined total of 2.23.
How confident is the prediction model for Osters IF vs Norrby IF?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Osters IF
Pre-Season
Norrby IF
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
5 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to June 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. The two were last together as recently as 30 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
Osters IF's record when hosting Norrby IF specifically: 2W 1D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 5 Meetings
2
Osters IF
2
Draws
1
Norrby IF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Osters IF and Norrby IF?
From 5 meetings on record, Osters IF have won 2, Norrby IF have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Osters IF and Norrby IF last play each other?
They last met on 30 May 2026, when Osters IF 2-1 Norrby IF.
Who has won more matches between Osters IF and Norrby IF?
Osters IF have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 5 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Osters IF home games / Norrby IF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Stalemate at Osters IF's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Osters IF and Norrby IF finished level at 0-0 at Visma Arena, Regular Season - 9, in the Superettan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Osters IF 0.89 xG and Norrby IF 1.33 xG, a combined 2.23. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Osters IF fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Norrby IF landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Osters IF attack 0.91 / defence 1.33 against Norrby IF attack 0.95 / defence 1.12, drawn from 8/9 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Osters IF 25% | Draw 28% | Norrby IF 47%, with Norrby IF to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 65% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.