Osters IF 2-0 Dalkurd FF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Osters IF at 62% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Osters IF vs Dalkurd FF encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Dalkurd FF make the trip to Visma Arena to face Osters IF in Superettan, Regular Season - 23. The match kicks off on Sunday 11 September 2022 at 14:00 UTC.
Form
Osters IF (all games): 4W 5D 1L across 10 Superettan fixtures this term — 1.70 PPG. Last five: D D W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Osters IF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Osters IF have posted 5W 2D 3L at Visma Arena — 1.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Dalkurd FF have collected 0.70 PPG across 10 Superettan outings this season: 2W 1D 7L. Last five: L L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 2.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Dalkurd FF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Dalkurd FF's form when playing away from home: 1W 3D 6L across 10 road games this term (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The points-per-game gap of 1.00 in Osters IF's favour (1.70 vs 0.70) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Osters IF lead 1W to 0W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 2 May 2022, ended 3–0 with Osters IF winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Osters IF half-time and goal-timing data (24 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 83% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 82% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games).
Dalkurd FF half-time and goal-timing data (24 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); they fail to score in 46% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Osters IF 75% and Dalkurd FF 46% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Osters IF 58% | Dalkurd FF 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Osters IF 2.15 xG and Dalkurd FF 1.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Osters IF attack 1.155 / defence 1.100 | Dalkurd FF attack 0.708 / defence 1.342. League average goals — home 1.386 / away 1.329. Dalkurd FF bring a strong defensive rating of 1.342 — this is suppressing Osters IF's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 52 Osters IF games / 22 Dalkurd FF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Osters IF 62% | Draw 21% | Dalkurd FF 17%. Fair-value odds: Osters IF 1.61 | Draw 4.76 | Dalkurd FF 5.88. The model has a clear lean to Osters IF (62%) — a 45pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 3.18. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.18 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Osters IF at 62% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.18 combined xG gives a 62% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 58%. Form rates corroborate: Osters IF 80% | Dalkurd FF 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Osters IF vs Dalkurd FF | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Visma Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 11 Sep 2022, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Osters IF 62% | Draw 21% | Dalkurd FF 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% | BTTS 58% | xG Osters IF 2.15 / Dalkurd FF 1.03 • Poisson strength factors: Osters IF attack 1.155 / def 1.100 | Dalkurd FF attack 0.708 / def 1.342 | league avg home 1.386 / away 1.329 • Poisson stance: Osters IF (62%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.15
Osters IF xG
Expected Goals
1.03
Dalkurd FF xG
58%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Osters IF vs Dalkurd FF kick off?
Osters IF vs Dalkurd FF kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 11 September 2022 at Visma Arena.
What was the final score in Osters IF vs Dalkurd FF?
Osters IF 2 - 0 Dalkurd FF.
Where is Osters IF vs Dalkurd FF being played?
The match is being played at Visma Arena.
What competition is Osters IF vs Dalkurd FF part of?
Osters IF vs Dalkurd FF is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Osters IF vs Dalkurd FF?
Our statistical model gives Osters IF a 62% chance of winning, Dalkurd FF a 17% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Osters IF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Osters IF vs Dalkurd FF?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Osters IF and Dalkurd FF will score (BTTS).
Will Osters IF vs Dalkurd FF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%.
What is the head-to-head record between Osters IF and Dalkurd FF?
Record (1 meetings): Osters IF 1W | Draws 0 | Dalkurd FF 0W.
What form are Osters IF and Dalkurd FF in?
Osters IF (all comps): 4W-5D-1L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-D-W-W-L. Dalkurd FF (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Osters IF's attacking strength (1.16x league average) is weighed against Dalkurd FF's defensive record (1.34x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.15. Flip it around — Dalkurd FF's attack (0.71x) against Osters IF's defence (1.10x) — and the away total comes out at 1.03.
These ratings are built from 52/22 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.4%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Osters IF Win
62%
1.61
21%
4.69
17%
6.04
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
9.6%
Home win
1 – 1
9.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.15
Osters IF xG
Total xG
3.18
1.03
Dalkurd FF xG
1.61
62%
Home win
4.69
21%
Draw
6.04
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.73
42%
BTTS No
2.36
Clean Sheet
36%
2.82
12%
8.58
Win to Nil
22%
4.53
2%
51.76
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.1 | 4.3 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 8.9 | 9.2 | 4.8 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.6 | 9.9 | 5.1 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.9 | 7.1 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.7 | 3.8 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Osters IF vs Dalkurd FF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.4%.
How many goals are Osters IF and Dalkurd FF expected to score?
The model projects 2.15 expected goals for Osters IF and 1.03 for Dalkurd FF, a combined total of 3.18.
How confident is the prediction model for Osters IF vs Dalkurd FF?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 62%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Osters IF come into this having played 24 games, going 11W 8D 5L for 1.71 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-W-W-L. The sample for Osters IF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Dalkurd FF sit at 0.92 PPG from 24 outings (6W 4D 14L), a run that reads L-L-L-L-L across their last five. The sample for Dalkurd FF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Osters IF carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.79 PPG clear of Dalkurd FF — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Osters IF's home form reads 6W 2D 3L across 11 games on their own ground, a 1.82 PPG return.
Away from home, Dalkurd FF have taken 0.64 points per game from 11 outings (1W 4D 6L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Osters IF come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Osters IF are averaging 1.67 goals scored and 1.17 conceded per game recently; Dalkurd FF are on 0.96 scored and 1.71 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Osters IF have seen both teams score in 75% of their recent games.
Last 24 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Osters IF
Blended
Dalkurd FF
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Osters IF and Dalkurd FF in coming into this match?
Osters IF have gone 11W 8D 5L in their last 24 games (1.71 PPG), while Dalkurd FF have gone 6W 4D 14L in their last 24 (0.92 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Osters IF at home or Dalkurd FF away?
Osters IF's home record (1.82 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Osters IF at home: 1.82 PPG; Dalkurd FF away: 0.64 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since May 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. It has been a while since the last meeting — 11 September 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
2
Osters IF
0
Draws
0
Dalkurd FF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Osters IF and Dalkurd FF?
From 2 meetings on record, Osters IF have won 2, Dalkurd FF have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Osters IF and Dalkurd FF last play each other?
They last met on 11 September 2022, when Osters IF 2-0 Dalkurd FF.
Who has won more matches between Osters IF and Dalkurd FF?
Osters IF have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Osters IF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Dalkurd FF see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Osters IF 82%, Dalkurd FF 36% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 64% (Osters IF) and 46% (Dalkurd FF).
On the defensive side: Dalkurd FF in 54%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Osters IF home games / Dalkurd FF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Osters IF play Dalkurd FF?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 82% of Osters IF's games and 36% of Dalkurd FF's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Osters IF vs Dalkurd FF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 64% of Osters IF's recent games and 46% of Dalkurd FF's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Osters IF and Dalkurd FF tend to score early?
Osters IF have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Dalkurd FF in 54% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Osters IF cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Dalkurd FF.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Osters IF beat Dalkurd FF 2-0 at Visma Arena, Regular Season - 23, in the Superettan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Osters IF 2.15 xG and Dalkurd FF 1.03 xG, a combined 3.18. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Dalkurd FF landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Osters IF attack 1.16 / defence 1.10 against Dalkurd FF attack 0.71 / defence 1.34, drawn from 52/22 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Osters IF 62% | Draw 21% | Dalkurd FF 17%, with Osters IF to win its most likely call at 62%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Osters IF 58%, Dalkurd FF 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Osters IF's trading profile (24 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 75% of their matches — today it did not.
Dalkurd FF's trading profile (24 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 46% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Osters IF arrived the stronger side — 1.71 PPG against 0.92. That form edge translated into the three points. Osters IF (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.45 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.