Orgryte IS 1-1 Vasteras SK FK – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Orgryte IS at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Orgryte IS vs Vasteras SK FK fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Orgryte IS host Vasteras SK FK at Gamla Ullevi in Superettan, Regular Season - 15. Kick-off is scheduled for Tuesday 26 July 2022 at 18:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Superettan games this season, Orgryte IS have gone 1W 5D 4L from 10 outings — a 0.80 PPG return. Last five: D D W L D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Orgryte IS, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Orgryte IS's home record at Gamla Ullevi: 2W 5D 3L from 10 Superettan appearances (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Vasteras SK FK — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Superettan fixtures this season — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D W L L W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.80. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Vasteras SK FK, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Vasteras SK FK's away record: 3W 3D 4L from 10 road trips in Superettan this season (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Form points away from home here. Vasteras SK FK's 1.40 PPG return is 0.60 points per game ahead of Orgryte IS's 0.80 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Orgryte IS, 0 for Vasteras SK FK and 2 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 2 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 30 Oct 2021, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Orgryte IS in-play and half-time data (44 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
Vasteras SK FK in-play and half-time data (44 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 43% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Orgryte IS 66% and Vasteras SK FK 59% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Orgryte IS 50% | Vasteras SK FK 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Orgryte IS 1.47 xG and Vasteras SK FK 1.29 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Orgryte IS attack 0.931 / defence 1.097 | Vasteras SK FK attack 0.929 / defence 1.067. League average goals — home 1.479 / away 1.267. Data: 44 Orgryte IS games / 44 Vasteras SK FK games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Orgryte IS 40% | Draw 28% | Vasteras SK FK 32%. Fair-value odds: Orgryte IS 2.50 | Draw 3.57 | Vasteras SK FK 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.76. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.76 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Orgryte IS as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Vasteras SK FK (1.40 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Orgryte IS offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.76 combined xG gives a 52% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 57% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Orgryte IS 70% | Vasteras SK FK 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Orgryte IS vs Vasteras SK FK | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Gamla Ullevi • Kick-off: Tuesday 26 Jul 2022, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Orgryte IS 40% | Draw 28% | Vasteras SK FK 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 57% | xG Orgryte IS 1.47 / Vasteras SK FK 1.29 • Poisson strength factors: Orgryte IS attack 0.931 / def 1.097 | Vasteras SK FK attack 0.929 / def 1.067 | league avg home 1.479 / away 1.267 • Poisson stance: Orgryte IS (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.47
Orgryte IS xG
Expected Goals
1.29
Vasteras SK FK xG
57%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Orgryte IS vs Vasteras SK FK kick off?
Orgryte IS vs Vasteras SK FK kicked off at 18:00 on Tuesday 26 July 2022 at Gamla Ullevi.
What was the final score in Orgryte IS vs Vasteras SK FK?
Orgryte IS 1 - 1 Vasteras SK FK.
Where is Orgryte IS vs Vasteras SK FK being played?
The match is being played at Gamla Ullevi.
What competition is Orgryte IS vs Vasteras SK FK part of?
Orgryte IS vs Vasteras SK FK is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Orgryte IS vs Vasteras SK FK?
Our statistical model gives Orgryte IS a 40% chance of winning, Vasteras SK FK a 32% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Orgryte IS the favourite.
Will both teams score in Orgryte IS vs Vasteras SK FK?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Orgryte IS and Vasteras SK FK will score (BTTS).
Will Orgryte IS vs Vasteras SK FK have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Orgryte IS and Vasteras SK FK?
Record (2 meetings): Orgryte IS 0W | Draws 2 | Vasteras SK FK 0W.
What form are Orgryte IS and Vasteras SK FK in?
Orgryte IS (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-D-W-L-D. Vasteras SK FK (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-W-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Orgryte IS's attacking strength (0.93x league average) is weighed against Vasteras SK FK's defensive record (1.07x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.47. The same calculation in reverse, Vasteras SK FK's attack versus Orgryte IS's defence, projects 1.29 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 44/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.6%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.8%), 0-0 (7.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Orgryte IS Win
40%
2.49
28%
3.60
32%
3.12
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.3%
Home win
2 – 1
8.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.47
Orgryte IS xG
Total xG
2.76
1.29
Vasteras SK FK xG
2.49
40%
Home win
3.60
28%
Draw
3.12
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.75
43%
BTTS No
2.33
Clean Sheet
27%
3.64
23%
4.34
Win to Nil
11%
9.07
7%
13.53
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.3 | 8.2 | 5.3 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.3 | 12.0 | 7.8 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.8 | 8.8 | 5.7 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 4.3 | 2.8 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Orgryte IS vs Vasteras SK FK?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Orgryte IS and Vasteras SK FK expected to score?
The model projects 1.47 expected goals for Orgryte IS and 1.29 for Vasteras SK FK, a combined total of 2.76.
How confident is the prediction model for Orgryte IS vs Vasteras SK FK?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Orgryte IS's recent record stands at 10W 20D 14L from 44 games, a 1.14 PPG return, with D-D-W-L-D in the last five. The sample for Orgryte IS is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Vasteras SK FK, meanwhile, have gone 12W 16D 16L across 44 games — 1.18 PPG, with D-W-L-L-W in their last five. The sample for Vasteras SK FK is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Orgryte IS on 1.14 PPG, Vasteras SK FK on 1.18. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Orgryte IS have managed 5W 12D 5L from 22 games — 1.23 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Vasteras SK FK's away record stands at 6W 6D 10L across 22 trips, a 1.09 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Orgryte IS are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Vasteras SK FK are on 1.25 scored and 1.48 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Orgryte IS have seen both teams score in 66% of their recent games.
Last 44 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Orgryte IS
Blended
Vasteras SK FK
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Orgryte IS and Vasteras SK FK in coming into this match?
Orgryte IS have gone 10W 20D 14L in their last 44 games (1.14 PPG), while Vasteras SK FK have gone 12W 16D 16L in their last 44 (1.18 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Orgryte IS at home or Vasteras SK FK away?
Orgryte IS's home record (1.23 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Orgryte IS at home: 1.23 PPG; Vasteras SK FK away: 1.09 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
9 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to May 2021. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Superettan, Allsvenskan all feature in the head-to-head log. The two were last together as recently as 24 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
Vasteras SK FK go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Orgryte IS's record when hosting Vasteras SK FK specifically: 1W 2D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
1
Orgryte IS
6
Draws
2
Vasteras SK FK
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Orgryte IS and Vasteras SK FK?
From 9 meetings on record, Orgryte IS have won 1, Vasteras SK FK have won 2, and 6 have been drawn.
When did Orgryte IS and Vasteras SK FK last play each other?
They last met on 24 July 2026, when Vasteras SK FK 2-0 Orgryte IS.
Who has won more matches between Orgryte IS and Vasteras SK FK?
Vasteras SK FK have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Orgryte IS are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 27% of those situations.
Vasteras SK FK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Orgryte IS 64%, Vasteras SK FK 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 41% (Orgryte IS) and 41% (Vasteras SK FK).
On the defensive side: Orgryte IS have failed to score in 27% of games; Vasteras SK FK in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Orgryte IS home games / Vasteras SK FK away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Orgryte IS play Vasteras SK FK?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of Orgryte IS's games and 50% of Vasteras SK FK's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Orgryte IS vs Vasteras SK FK usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 41% of Orgryte IS's recent games and 41% of Vasteras SK FK's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Orgryte IS and Vasteras SK FK tend to score early?
Orgryte IS have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Vasteras SK FK in 82% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Orgryte IS and Vasteras SK FK share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Orgryte IS and Vasteras SK FK finished level at 1-1 at Gamla Ullevi, Regular Season - 15, in the Superettan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Orgryte IS 1.47 xG and Vasteras SK FK 1.29 xG, a combined 2.76. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Orgryte IS attack 0.93 / defence 1.10 against Vasteras SK FK attack 0.93 / defence 1.07, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Orgryte IS 40% | Draw 28% | Vasteras SK FK 32%, with Orgryte IS to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Orgryte IS 50%, Vasteras SK FK 57%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Orgryte IS's trading profile (44 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did.
Vasteras SK FK's trading profile (44 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Orgryte IS 1.14 PPG, Vasteras SK FK 1.18 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.