Orgryte IS 2-2 Osters IF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Osters IF at 37% — the head-to-head data provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Orgryte IS vs Osters IF encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Gamla Ullevi plays host to Orgryte IS versus Osters IF in Superettan (matchday 5). Kick-off: Saturday 27 April 2024 at 17:00 UK time.
Current Form
Orgryte IS's record over their last 10 games: 5W 1D 4L (1.60 PPG). Last five: L W W W W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Orgryte IS's form when playing at home: 2W 3D 5L across their last 10 home games (0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.90 lags behind their overall 1.60 — home advantage has not translated into better results recently.
Osters IF have collected 1.80 PPG across their last 10 games: 5W 3D 2L. Last five: W L W W W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.00. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Osters IF's form when playing away from home: 4W 3D 3L across their last 10 road games (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.60 vs 1.80 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (from Orgryte IS's last 10 home games and Osters IF's last 10 away games) — Orgryte IS have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Osters IF in 90%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head sample leans to Osters IF, who have 3 wins from 6 H2H matches compared to 0 for the hosts, with 3 draws.
The 6 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 27 Aug 2023, ended Orgryte IS 0–2 Osters IF — a Osters IF win.
Osters IF have the better head-to-head record despite being the visitors — 3 wins from 6 H2H matches. Home advantage alone is not a reason to dismiss that.
Trading Data
Orgryte IS goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 62 games, 31 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 74% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; of the 16 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 38%; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (home games).
Osters IF goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 62 games, 31 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 74% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; of the 11 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 36%; BTTS occurs in 74% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Orgryte IS 55% and Osters IF 66% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Orgryte IS 53% | Osters IF 63%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Orgryte IS surrender their half-time lead 38% of the time, while Osters IF have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 36% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Orgryte IS 1.20 xG and Osters IF 1.27 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Orgryte IS attack 0.934 / defence 1.329 | Osters IF attack 1.053 / defence 0.946. League average goals — home 1.361 / away 0.906. Orgryte IS's defence rating of 1.329 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Osters IF's projected output up. Data: built from Orgryte IS's last 34 games and Osters IF's last 34.
Result probabilities: Orgryte IS 34% | Draw 28% | Osters IF 37%. Fair-value odds: Orgryte IS 2.92 | Draw 3.53 | Osters IF 2.67. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS Yes probability 51% | Total xG 2.47. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.47 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS Yes at 51% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Osters IF at 37% — marginal model lean. The head-to-head data (Osters IF 3 wins from 6 H2H matches) corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Osters IF if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.47 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 55% probability — low conviction — though recent form (Orgryte IS's last 10 home games and Osters IF's last 10 away games) averaging 2.9 goals per game points the other way.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Orgryte IS 60% (last 10 home games) | Osters IF 90% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Orgryte IS vs Osters IF | Competition: Superettan, matchday 5 | Venue: Gamla Ullevi • Kick-off: Saturday 27 April 2024 at 17:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Orgryte IS 34% | Draw 28% | Osters IF 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% (Under 55%) | BTTS Yes 51% (No 49%) | xG Orgryte IS 1.20 / Osters IF 1.27 • Poisson strength factors: Orgryte IS attack 0.934 / def 1.329 | Osters IF attack 1.053 / def 0.946 | league avg home 1.361 / away 0.906 • Poisson stance: Osters IF (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.20
Orgryte IS xG
Expected Goals
1.27
Osters IF xG
51%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Orgryte IS vs Osters IF FAQs
What time does Orgryte IS vs Osters IF kick off?
Orgryte IS vs Osters IF kicked off at 17:00 UK time on Saturday 27 April 2024 at Gamla Ullevi.
What was the final score in Orgryte IS vs Osters IF?
Orgryte IS 2 - 2 Osters IF.
Where is Orgryte IS vs Osters IF being played?
The match is being played at Gamla Ullevi.
What competition is Orgryte IS vs Osters IF part of?
Orgryte IS vs Osters IF is a Superettan fixture (matchday 5) (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Orgryte IS vs Osters IF?
Our statistical model gives Orgryte IS a 34% chance of winning, Osters IF a 37% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Osters IF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Orgryte IS vs Osters IF?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Orgryte IS and Osters IF will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Orgryte IS vs Osters IF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (55%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Orgryte IS's attacking strength (0.93x league average) is weighed against Osters IF's defensive record (0.95x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.20. Flip it around — Osters IF's attack (1.05x) against Orgryte IS's defence (1.33x) — and the away total comes out at 1.27.
These ratings are built from Orgryte IS's last 34 games and Osters IF's last 34 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.6%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.1%), 0-1 (9.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Osters IF Win
34%
2.92
28%
3.53
37%
2.67
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.7%
Away win
1 – 0
10.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.20
Orgryte IS xG
Total xG
2.47
1.27
Osters IF xG
2.92
34%
Home win
3.53
28%
Draw
2.67
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.97
49%
BTTS No
2.03
Clean Sheet
28%
3.55
30%
3.33
Win to Nil
10%
10.37
11%
8.91
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.5 | 10.7 | 6.8 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.2 | 12.9 | 8.2 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.1 | 7.8 | 4.9 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 3.1 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Orgryte IS vs Osters IF Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Orgryte IS vs Osters IF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Orgryte IS and Osters IF expected to score?
The model projects 1.20 expected goals for Orgryte IS and 1.27 for Osters IF, a combined total of 2.47.
How confident is the prediction model for Orgryte IS vs Osters IF?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 62 outings, Orgryte IS have picked up 1.21 PPG on a 19W 18D 25L record — L-W-W-W-W across the most recent five.
Osters IF's form line: 29W 15D 18L from 62 games, 1.65 PPG, last five W-L-W-W-W.
Put side by side, Osters IF are the form team by 0.44 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Orgryte IS.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Orgryte IS have posted 1.13 PPG from their last 31 home games (8W 11D 12L).
On the road, Osters IF have gone 13W 9D 9L from their last 31 away games — 1.55 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Osters IF come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Orgryte IS are averaging 1.27 goals scored and 1.42 conceded per game recently; Osters IF are on 1.71 scored and 1.19 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Osters IF in 66%.
Last 62 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Orgryte IS
Current Season
Osters IF
Current Season
Orgryte IS (Home) vs Osters IF (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Orgryte IS
Current Season
Osters IF
Current Season
❓ Orgryte IS vs Osters IF Form FAQs
What form are Orgryte IS and Osters IF in coming into this match?
Orgryte IS have gone 19W 18D 25L in their last 62 games (1.21 PPG), while Osters IF have gone 29W 15D 18L in their last 62 (1.65 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Orgryte IS at home or Osters IF away?
Osters IF's away record (1.55 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Orgryte IS at home: 1.13 PPG; Osters IF away: 1.55 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 8 H2H matches between Orgryte IS and Osters IF, the earliest from April 2021. All of them came in Superettan. The most recent in our data was on 17 August 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Orgryte IS have gone 0W 2D 2L from the 4 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Osters IF — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
0
Orgryte IS
4
Draws
4
Osters IF
Recent Meetings
❓ Orgryte IS vs Osters IF H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Orgryte IS and Osters IF?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, Orgryte IS have won 0, Osters IF have won 4, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Orgryte IS and Osters IF last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 17 August 2024: Osters IF 1-0 Orgryte IS.
Who has won more matches between Orgryte IS and Osters IF?
Osters IF have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 8 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Orgryte IS are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 50% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Osters IF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 29% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Orgryte IS 55%, Osters IF 74% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 55% (Orgryte IS) and 64% (Osters IF). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 39% and 26% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Orgryte IS have failed to score in 26% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Orgryte IS home games / Osters IF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Orgryte IS vs Osters IF Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Orgryte IS and Osters IF matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 55% of Orgryte IS's games and 74% of Osters IF's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Orgryte IS and Osters IF matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 55% of Orgryte IS's matches and 64% of Osters IF's.
Do Orgryte IS and Osters IF matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 74% of Orgryte IS's recent matches and 74% of Osters IF's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Orgryte IS and Osters IF share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Orgryte IS and Osters IF finished level at 2-2 at Gamla Ullevi, Regular Season - 5, in the Superettan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Orgryte IS 1.20 xG and Osters IF 1.27 xG, a combined 2.47. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Orgryte IS attack 0.93 / defence 1.33 against Osters IF attack 1.05 / defence 0.95, drawn from 34/34 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Orgryte IS 34% | Draw 28% | Osters IF 37%, with Osters IF to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. Over 3.5 was 24% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Orgryte IS 53%, Osters IF 63%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Orgryte IS's trading profile (62 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Osters IF's trading profile (62 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Osters IF arrived the stronger side — 1.65 PPG against 1.21. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.