Orgryte IS 5-1 Norrby IF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Orgryte IS at 45% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Orgryte IS vs Norrby IF encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Orgryte IS host Norrby IF at Gamla Ullevi in Superettan, Regular Season - 20. Kick-off is scheduled for Tuesday 23 August 2022 at 18:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Orgryte IS stand at 4W 5D 1L from 10 Superettan matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: D W D W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Orgryte IS, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Orgryte IS have posted 1W 6D 3L at Gamla Ullevi — 0.90 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.90 lags behind their overall 1.70 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Gamla Ullevi this season.
Across all Superettan games this season, Norrby IF have recorded 2W 3D 5L from 10 outings — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L L L D D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Norrby IF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Norrby IF's away record: 3W 1D 6L from 10 road trips in Superettan this season (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Orgryte IS are in the better shape of the two on current Superettan data — 0.80 PPG ahead (1.70 vs 0.90). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, Orgryte IS have won 0, Norrby IF 1, with 2 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 3 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 14 May 2022, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Orgryte IS in-play and half-time data (49 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
Norrby IF in-play and half-time data (49 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Orgryte IS 65% and Norrby IF 55% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Orgryte IS 49% | Norrby IF 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Orgryte IS 1.72 xG and Norrby IF 1.33 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Orgryte IS attack 0.968 / defence 1.065 | Norrby IF attack 0.907 / defence 1.289. League average goals — home 1.379 / away 1.378. Norrby IF bring a strong defensive rating of 1.289 — this is suppressing Orgryte IS's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 49 Orgryte IS games / 49 Norrby IF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Orgryte IS 45% | Draw 26% | Norrby IF 28%. Fair-value odds: Orgryte IS 2.22 | Draw 3.85 | Norrby IF 3.57. Orgryte IS hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.05. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.05 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.72 / 1.33) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Orgryte IS at 45% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Orgryte IS offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.05 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 59% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 62% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Orgryte IS 70% | Norrby IF 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Orgryte IS vs Norrby IF | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Gamla Ullevi • Kick-off: Tuesday 23 Aug 2022, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Orgryte IS 45% | Draw 26% | Norrby IF 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 62% | xG Orgryte IS 1.72 / Norrby IF 1.33 • Poisson strength factors: Orgryte IS attack 0.968 / def 1.065 | Norrby IF attack 0.907 / def 1.289 | league avg home 1.379 / away 1.378 • Poisson stance: Orgryte IS (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.72
Orgryte IS xG
Expected Goals
1.33
Norrby IF xG
62%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Orgryte IS vs Norrby IF kick off?
Orgryte IS vs Norrby IF kicked off at 18:00 on Tuesday 23 August 2022 at Gamla Ullevi.
What was the final score in Orgryte IS vs Norrby IF?
Orgryte IS 5 - 1 Norrby IF.
Where is Orgryte IS vs Norrby IF being played?
The match is being played at Gamla Ullevi.
What competition is Orgryte IS vs Norrby IF part of?
Orgryte IS vs Norrby IF is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Orgryte IS vs Norrby IF?
Our statistical model gives Orgryte IS a 45% chance of winning, Norrby IF a 28% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Orgryte IS the favourite.
Will both teams score in Orgryte IS vs Norrby IF?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Orgryte IS and Norrby IF will score (BTTS).
Will Orgryte IS vs Norrby IF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between Orgryte IS and Norrby IF?
Record (3 meetings): Orgryte IS 0W | Draws 2 | Norrby IF 1W.
What form are Orgryte IS and Norrby IF in?
Orgryte IS (all comps): 4W-5D-1L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-W-D-W-W. Norrby IF (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Orgryte IS's attack rating (0.97) and Norrby IF's defence rating (1.29), the model arrives at 1.72 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Norrby IF's attack versus Orgryte IS's defence, projects 1.33 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 49/49 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.2%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.3%), 1-2 (7.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Orgryte IS Win
45%
2.21
26%
3.79
28%
3.53
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.8%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
1 – 0
8.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.72
Orgryte IS xG
Total xG
3.05
1.33
Norrby IF xG
2.21
45%
Home win
3.79
26%
Draw
3.53
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.62
38%
BTTS No
2.62
Clean Sheet
26%
3.78
18%
5.59
Win to Nil
12%
8.35
5%
19.74
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.7 | 6.3 | 4.2 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.1 | 10.8 | 7.2 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.0 | 9.3 | 6.2 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 5.3 | 3.6 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 2.3 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Orgryte IS vs Norrby IF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.2%.
How many goals are Orgryte IS and Norrby IF expected to score?
The model projects 1.72 expected goals for Orgryte IS and 1.33 for Norrby IF, a combined total of 3.05.
How confident is the prediction model for Orgryte IS vs Norrby IF?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Orgryte IS come into this having played 49 games, going 13W 22D 14L for 1.24 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-D-W-W. The sample for Orgryte IS is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Norrby IF sit at 1.39 PPG from 49 outings (18W 14D 17L), a run that reads L-L-L-D-D across their last five. The sample for Norrby IF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Orgryte IS on 1.24 PPG, Norrby IF on 1.39. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Orgryte IS's home form reads 5W 14D 5L across 24 games on their own ground, a 1.21 PPG return.
Away from home, Norrby IF have taken 1.33 points per game from 24 outings (9W 5D 10L).
Goals in Recent Form
Orgryte IS are averaging 1.31 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per game recently; Norrby IF are on 1.24 scored and 1.27 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Orgryte IS have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games.
Last 49 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Orgryte IS
Blended
Norrby IF
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Orgryte IS and Norrby IF in coming into this match?
Orgryte IS have gone 13W 22D 14L in their last 49 games (1.24 PPG), while Norrby IF have gone 18W 14D 17L in their last 49 (1.39 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Orgryte IS at home or Norrby IF away?
Norrby IF's away record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Orgryte IS at home: 1.21 PPG; Norrby IF away: 1.33 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. It has been a while since the last meeting — 23 August 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 23 Aug 2022, when Orgryte IS won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Orgryte IS's record when hosting Norrby IF specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Orgryte IS
2
Draws
1
Norrby IF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Orgryte IS and Norrby IF?
From 4 meetings on record, Orgryte IS have won 1, Norrby IF have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Orgryte IS and Norrby IF last play each other?
They last met on 23 August 2022, when Orgryte IS 5-1 Norrby IF.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Orgryte IS are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Norrby IF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Orgryte IS 67%, Norrby IF 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Orgryte IS) and 54% (Norrby IF).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Orgryte IS home games / Norrby IF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Orgryte IS play Norrby IF?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Orgryte IS's games and 62% of Norrby IF's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Orgryte IS vs Norrby IF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Orgryte IS's recent games and 54% of Norrby IF's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Orgryte IS and Norrby IF tend to score early?
Orgryte IS have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Norrby IF in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Orgryte IS run riot with a 5-1 hammering of Norrby IF.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Orgryte IS beat Norrby IF 5-1 at Gamla Ullevi, Regular Season - 20, in the Superettan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Orgryte IS 1.72 xG and Norrby IF 1.33 xG, a combined 3.05. The scoreboard read 5-1 for 6 actual goals. Orgryte IS beat their projection by 3.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Orgryte IS attack 0.97 / defence 1.06 against Norrby IF attack 0.91 / defence 1.29, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Orgryte IS 45% | Draw 26% | Norrby IF 28%, with Orgryte IS to win its most likely call at 45%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. Over 3.5 was 36% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Orgryte IS 49%, Norrby IF 43%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Orgryte IS's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.
Norrby IF's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Orgryte IS 1.24 PPG, Norrby IF 1.39 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Orgryte IS win broke the near-deadlock. Orgryte IS (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.33 average — above their attacking norm. Norrby IF (home/away splits) shipped 5 against a 1.42 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.