Orgryte IS 2-0 Landskrona BoIS – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Orgryte IS at 63% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Orgryte IS vs Landskrona BoIS encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Gamla Ullevi plays host to Orgryte IS versus Landskrona BoIS in Superettan, Regular Season - 25. Kick-off: Tuesday 30 September 2025 at 18:00 UTC.
Form
Orgryte IS (all games): 8W 2D 0L across 10 Superettan fixtures this term — 2.60 PPG. Last five: D W W W W. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Orgryte IS, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Orgryte IS at Gamla Ullevi this season: 7W 2D 1L from 10 home games — 2.30 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.90 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Gamla Ullevi.
Landskrona BoIS have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 Superettan outings this season: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: L W D L D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Landskrona BoIS, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Landskrona BoIS away from home this season: 3W 2D 5L from 10 away games — 1.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
The form ledger tips toward Orgryte IS. A 1.40 PPG lead over Landskrona BoIS (2.60 vs 1.20) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Orgryte IS lead 3W to 4W over the last 9 encounters, with 2 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.2 goals per game across 9 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 12 May 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.2 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Orgryte IS half-time and goal-timing data (54 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 74% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
Landskrona BoIS half-time and goal-timing data (54 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Orgryte IS 65% versus Landskrona BoIS 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Orgryte IS 61% | Landskrona BoIS 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Orgryte IS 1.98 xG and Landskrona BoIS 0.86 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Orgryte IS attack 1.302 / defence 0.897 | Landskrona BoIS attack 0.828 / defence 0.982. League average goals — home 1.550 / away 1.154. Orgryte IS carry an above-average attack strength of 1.302 — their λ of 1.98 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 54 Orgryte IS games / 54 Landskrona BoIS games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Orgryte IS 63% | Draw 22% | Landskrona BoIS 15%. Fair-value odds: Orgryte IS 1.59 | Draw 4.55 | Landskrona BoIS 6.67. The model has a clear lean to Orgryte IS (63%) — a 48pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.84. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.84 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Orgryte IS as the most likely outcome at 63% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.84 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 54% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.2 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 50% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Orgryte IS 40% | Landskrona BoIS 40% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Orgryte IS vs Landskrona BoIS | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Gamla Ullevi • Kick-off: Tuesday 30 Sep 2025, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Orgryte IS 63% | Draw 22% | Landskrona BoIS 15% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 50% | xG Orgryte IS 1.98 / Landskrona BoIS 0.86 • Poisson strength factors: Orgryte IS attack 1.302 / def 0.897 | Landskrona BoIS attack 0.828 / def 0.982 | league avg home 1.550 / away 1.154 • Poisson stance: Orgryte IS (63%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.98
Orgryte IS xG
Expected Goals
0.86
Landskrona BoIS xG
50%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Orgryte IS vs Landskrona BoIS kick off?
Orgryte IS vs Landskrona BoIS kicked off at 18:00 on Tuesday 30 September 2025 at Gamla Ullevi.
What was the final score in Orgryte IS vs Landskrona BoIS?
Orgryte IS 2 - 0 Landskrona BoIS.
Where is Orgryte IS vs Landskrona BoIS being played?
The match is being played at Gamla Ullevi.
What competition is Orgryte IS vs Landskrona BoIS part of?
Orgryte IS vs Landskrona BoIS is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Orgryte IS vs Landskrona BoIS?
Our statistical model gives Orgryte IS a 63% chance of winning, Landskrona BoIS a 15% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Orgryte IS the favourite.
Will both teams score in Orgryte IS vs Landskrona BoIS?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Orgryte IS and Landskrona BoIS will score (BTTS).
Will Orgryte IS vs Landskrona BoIS have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Orgryte IS and Landskrona BoIS?
Record (9 meetings): Orgryte IS 3W | Draws 2 | Landskrona BoIS 4W.
What form are Orgryte IS and Landskrona BoIS in?
Orgryte IS (all comps): 8W-2D-0L in 10 | 2.60 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 0.60 | L5 D-W-W-W-W. Landskrona BoIS (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-W-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Orgryte IS's attack at 1.30x the league average against Landskrona BoIS's defence at 0.98x — combine the two and it projects 1.98 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Landskrona BoIS's attack (0.83x) against Orgryte IS's defence (0.90x) — and the away total comes out at 0.86.
These ratings are built from 54/54 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-0 carries the highest individual probability at 11.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (11.2%), 1-0 (10.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Orgryte IS Win
63%
1.58
22%
4.55
15%
6.71
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.6%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
11.5%
Home win
1 – 1
9.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.98
Orgryte IS xG
Total xG
2.84
0.86
Landskrona BoIS xG
1.58
63%
Home win
4.55
22%
Draw
6.71
15%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.99
50%
BTTS No
2.01
Clean Sheet
42%
2.35
14%
7.25
Win to Nil
27%
3.73
2%
48.66
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.9 | 5.0 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 11.6 | 9.9 | 4.3 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 11.5 | 9.8 | 4.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 7.6 | 6.5 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.8 | 3.2 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.5 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Orgryte IS vs Landskrona BoIS?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.5%.
How many goals are Orgryte IS and Landskrona BoIS expected to score?
The model projects 1.98 expected goals for Orgryte IS and 0.86 for Landskrona BoIS, a combined total of 2.84.
How confident is the prediction model for Orgryte IS vs Landskrona BoIS?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 63%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Orgryte IS's recent record stands at 27W 14D 13L from 54 games, a 1.76 PPG return, with D-W-W-W-W in the last five. The sample for Orgryte IS is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Landskrona BoIS, meanwhile, have gone 22W 14D 18L across 54 games — 1.48 PPG, with L-W-D-L-D in their last five. The sample for Landskrona BoIS is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.76 PPG for Orgryte IS against 1.48 for Landskrona BoIS. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Orgryte IS have managed 15W 6D 6L from 27 games — 1.89 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Landskrona BoIS's away record stands at 10W 5D 12L across 27 trips, a 1.30 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Orgryte IS come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Orgryte IS are averaging 1.91 goals scored and 1.24 conceded per game recently; Landskrona BoIS are on 1.39 scored and 1.31 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Orgryte IS have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games.
Last 54 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Orgryte IS
Blended
Landskrona BoIS
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Orgryte IS and Landskrona BoIS in coming into this match?
Orgryte IS have gone 27W 14D 13L in their last 54 games (1.76 PPG), while Landskrona BoIS have gone 22W 14D 18L in their last 54 (1.48 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Orgryte IS at home or Landskrona BoIS away?
Orgryte IS's home record (1.89 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Orgryte IS at home: 1.89 PPG; Landskrona BoIS away: 1.30 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since May 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. They last met on 30 September 2025, roughly 11 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Orgryte IS have gone 3W 0D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Landskrona BoIS — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Orgryte IS
2
Draws
4
Landskrona BoIS
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Orgryte IS and Landskrona BoIS?
From 10 meetings on record, Orgryte IS have won 4, Landskrona BoIS have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Orgryte IS and Landskrona BoIS last play each other?
They last met on 30 September 2025, when Orgryte IS 2-0 Landskrona BoIS.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Orgryte IS are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time.
Landskrona BoIS are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Orgryte IS 63%, Landskrona BoIS 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 74% for Orgryte IS and 56% for Landskrona BoIS. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 44% and 26% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Landskrona BoIS in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Orgryte IS home games / Landskrona BoIS away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Orgryte IS play Landskrona BoIS?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 63% of Orgryte IS's games and 56% of Landskrona BoIS's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Orgryte IS vs Landskrona BoIS usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 74% of Orgryte IS's matches and 56% of Landskrona BoIS's.
Do Orgryte IS and Landskrona BoIS tend to score early?
Orgryte IS have had a goal before half-time in 82% of their recent matches, Landskrona BoIS in 63% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Orgryte IS cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Landskrona BoIS.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Orgryte IS beat Landskrona BoIS 2-0 at Gamla Ullevi, Regular Season - 25, in the Superettan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Orgryte IS 1.98 xG and Landskrona BoIS 0.86 xG, a combined 2.84. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Landskrona BoIS landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Orgryte IS attack 1.30 / defence 0.90 against Landskrona BoIS attack 0.83 / defence 0.98, drawn from 54/54 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Orgryte IS 63% | Draw 22% | Landskrona BoIS 15%, with Orgryte IS to win its most likely call at 63%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Orgryte IS 61%, Landskrona BoIS 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Orgryte IS's trading profile (54 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not.
Landskrona BoIS's trading profile (54 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Orgryte IS 1.76 PPG, Landskrona BoIS 1.48 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Orgryte IS win broke the near-deadlock. Orgryte IS (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.19 average — tighter than their form line. Landskrona BoIS (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.30 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.