Orgryte IS 0-2 Kalmar FF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Orgryte IS at 38%, yet in-form Kalmar FF provide a compelling counter-argument — this Orgryte IS vs Kalmar FF fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Orgryte IS and Kalmar FF meet at Gamla Ullevi in Superettan, Regular Season - 29. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 1 November 2025 at 12:00 UTC.
Form
Orgryte IS (all games): 6W 2D 2L across 10 Superettan fixtures this term — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W W D L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Orgryte IS at Gamla Ullevi this season: 6W 2D 2L from 10 home games — 2.00 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Gamla Ullevi. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Kalmar FF's overall Superettan record this term: 8W 2D 0L from 10 games (2.60 PPG). Last five: D W W W W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 0.50. Defensively, 0.50 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
Kalmar FF's form when playing away from home: 3W 7D 0L across 10 road games this term (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 0.40 conceded per game. 7 away clean sheets from 10 games (70%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.60 is notably below their overall 2.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Kalmar FF arrive in superior form — a 0.60 PPG advantage (2.60 vs 2.00) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Both sides have a clean-sheet tendency (using home/away splits) — Orgryte IS have seen both teams score in just 30% of their matches, Kalmar FF in only 30%. BTTS No has clear statistical support from the form record of both squads.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Orgryte IS, 0 for Kalmar FF and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 5.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 22 Jun 2025, ended 3–2 with Orgryte IS winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Orgryte IS half-time and goal-timing data (58 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
Kalmar FF half-time and goal-timing data (58 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Orgryte IS 62% versus Kalmar FF 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Orgryte IS 59% | Kalmar FF 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Orgryte IS 1.12 xG and Kalmar FF 0.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Orgryte IS attack 1.143 / defence 0.886 | Kalmar FF attack 0.921 / defence 0.625. League average goals — home 1.565 / away 1.189. Kalmar FF's defence strength of 0.625 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 58 Orgryte IS games / 28 Kalmar FF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Orgryte IS 38% | Draw 32% | Kalmar FF 30%. Fair-value odds: Orgryte IS 2.63 | Draw 3.12 | Kalmar FF 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.09. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.09 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Orgryte IS are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Kalmar FF (2.60 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Orgryte IS if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.09 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 35% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 43% on No. Form rates corroborate: Orgryte IS 30% | Kalmar FF 30% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Orgryte IS vs Kalmar FF | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Gamla Ullevi • Kick-off: Saturday 1 Nov 2025, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Orgryte IS 38% | Draw 32% | Kalmar FF 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 43% | xG Orgryte IS 1.12 / Kalmar FF 0.97 • Poisson strength factors: Orgryte IS attack 1.143 / def 0.886 | Kalmar FF attack 0.921 / def 0.625 | league avg home 1.565 / away 1.189 • Poisson stance: Orgryte IS (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.12
Orgryte IS xG
Expected Goals
0.97
Kalmar FF xG
43%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Orgryte IS vs Kalmar FF kick off?
Orgryte IS vs Kalmar FF kicked off at 12:00 on Saturday 1 November 2025 at Gamla Ullevi.
What was the final score in Orgryte IS vs Kalmar FF?
Orgryte IS 0 - 2 Kalmar FF.
Where is Orgryte IS vs Kalmar FF being played?
The match is being played at Gamla Ullevi.
What competition is Orgryte IS vs Kalmar FF part of?
Orgryte IS vs Kalmar FF is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Orgryte IS vs Kalmar FF?
Our statistical model gives Orgryte IS a 38% chance of winning, Kalmar FF a 30% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Orgryte IS the favourite.
Will both teams score in Orgryte IS vs Kalmar FF?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Orgryte IS and Kalmar FF will score (BTTS).
Will Orgryte IS vs Kalmar FF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between Orgryte IS and Kalmar FF?
Record (1 meetings): Orgryte IS 1W | Draws 0 | Kalmar FF 0W.
What form are Orgryte IS and Kalmar FF in?
Orgryte IS (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-D-L-L. Kalmar FF (all comps): 8W-2D-0L in 10 | 2.60 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 0.50 | L5 D-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Orgryte IS's attack at 1.14x the league average against Kalmar FF's defence at 0.62x — combine the two and it projects 1.12 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Kalmar FF's attack (0.92x) against Orgryte IS's defence (0.89x) — and the away total comes out at 0.97.
These ratings are built from 58/28 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (14.1%), 1-0 (12.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Orgryte IS Win
38%
2.63
32%
3.17
30%
3.28
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
0 – 0
12.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.12
Orgryte IS xG
Total xG
2.09
0.97
Kalmar FF xG
2.63
38%
Home win
3.17
32%
Draw
3.28
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.35
57%
BTTS No
1.74
Clean Sheet
38%
2.64
33%
3.06
Win to Nil
14%
6.95
10%
10.03
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.4 | 12.0 | 5.8 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.8 | 13.4 | 6.5 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.7 | 7.5 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 2.8 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Orgryte IS vs Kalmar FF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Orgryte IS and Kalmar FF expected to score?
The model projects 1.12 expected goals for Orgryte IS and 0.97 for Kalmar FF, a combined total of 2.09.
How confident is the prediction model for Orgryte IS vs Kalmar FF?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Orgryte IS's recent record stands at 28W 15D 15L from 58 games, a 1.71 PPG return, with W-W-D-L-L in the last five.
Kalmar FF, meanwhile, have gone 25W 16D 17L across 58 games — 1.57 PPG, with D-W-W-W-W in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.71 PPG for Orgryte IS against 1.57 for Kalmar FF. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Orgryte IS have managed 16W 6D 7L from 29 games — 1.86 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Kalmar FF's away record stands at 9W 13D 7L across 29 trips, a 1.38 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Orgryte IS come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Orgryte IS are averaging 1.83 goals scored and 1.26 conceded per game recently; Kalmar FF are on 1.50 scored and 1.33 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Orgryte IS have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Last 58 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Orgryte IS
Current Season
Kalmar FF
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Orgryte IS and Kalmar FF in coming into this match?
Orgryte IS have gone 28W 15D 15L in their last 58 games (1.71 PPG), while Kalmar FF have gone 25W 16D 17L in their last 58 (1.57 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Orgryte IS at home or Kalmar FF away?
Orgryte IS's home record (1.86 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Orgryte IS at home: 1.86 PPG; Kalmar FF away: 1.38 PPG.
Have Orgryte IS or Kalmar FF been keeping clean sheets recently?
Orgryte IS have kept a clean sheet in 28% of their recent games, Kalmar FF in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 3 times that we have on record, stretching back to June 2025 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Superettan, Allsvenskan all feature in the head-to-head log. The two were last together as recently as 5 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
Kalmar FF have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Kalmar FF won 3-0 on 5 Jul 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Last 3 Meetings
1
Orgryte IS
0
Draws
2
Kalmar FF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Orgryte IS and Kalmar FF?
From 3 meetings on record, Orgryte IS have won 1, Kalmar FF have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Orgryte IS and Kalmar FF last play each other?
They last met on 5 July 2026, when Kalmar FF 3-0 Orgryte IS.
Who has won more matches between Orgryte IS and Kalmar FF?
Kalmar FF have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 3 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Orgryte IS are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time.
Kalmar FF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 34% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Orgryte IS 59%, Kalmar FF 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 69% for Orgryte IS and 52% for Kalmar FF. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 41% and 38% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Orgryte IS keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Kalmar FF in 31%; Kalmar FF in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Orgryte IS home games / Kalmar FF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Orgryte IS play Kalmar FF?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 59% of Orgryte IS's games and 62% of Kalmar FF's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Orgryte IS vs Kalmar FF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 69% of Orgryte IS's matches and 52% of Kalmar FF's.
Do Orgryte IS and Kalmar FF tend to score early?
Orgryte IS have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Kalmar FF in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Kalmar FF cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Orgryte IS.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Kalmar FF beat Orgryte IS 0-2 at Gamla Ullevi, Regular Season - 29, in the Superettan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Orgryte IS 1.12 xG and Kalmar FF 0.97 xG, a combined 2.09. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Orgryte IS fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Kalmar FF outscored their 0.97 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Orgryte IS attack 1.14 / defence 0.89 against Kalmar FF attack 0.92 / defence 0.62, drawn from 58/28 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Orgryte IS 38% | Draw 32% | Kalmar FF 30%, with Orgryte IS to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Kalmar FF win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Orgryte IS 59%, Kalmar FF 55%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Orgryte IS's trading profile (58 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.
Kalmar FF's trading profile (58 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Orgryte IS 1.71 PPG, Kalmar FF 1.57 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Kalmar FF win broke the near-deadlock. Orgryte IS (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.17 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.17 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Kalmar FF (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.28 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.