Orgryte IS 1-1 IK brage – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Orgryte IS at 51%, yet other data sources diverge — this Orgryte IS vs IK brage fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Superettan encounter, Regular Season - 16 sees IK brage travel to Gamla Ullevi to take on Orgryte IS. The game is scheduled for Saturday 29 July 2023, 14:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Superettan games this season, Orgryte IS have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Orgryte IS, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Orgryte IS at Gamla Ullevi this season: 3W 4D 3L from 10 home games — 1.30 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, IK brage stand at 4W 1D 5L from 10 Superettan matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L W W L L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.70. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for IK brage, so this record blends games from this season and last.
IK brage away from home this season: 1W 2D 7L from 10 away games — 0.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.10 PPG (Orgryte IS) versus 1.30 (IK brage). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Orgryte IS, 2 for IK brage and 1 shared spoils from 5 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 5 meetings have averaged 3.8 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 9 Jul 2023, ended 1–4 with IK brage winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.8 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Orgryte IS in-play tendencies (45 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
IK brage in-play tendencies (45 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Orgryte IS 56% and IK brage 64% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Orgryte IS 53% | IK brage 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Orgryte IS 1.73 xG and IK brage 1.12 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Orgryte IS attack 0.985 / defence 1.145 | IK brage attack 0.881 / defence 1.225. League average goals — home 1.434 / away 1.115. IK brage bring a strong defensive rating of 1.225 — this is suppressing Orgryte IS's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 45 Orgryte IS games / 45 IK brage games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Orgryte IS 51% | Draw 24% | IK brage 24%. Fair-value odds: Orgryte IS 1.96 | Draw 4.17 | IK brage 4.17. Orgryte IS hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.86. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.86 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Orgryte IS as the most likely outcome at 51% — moderate model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Orgryte IS offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.86 combined xG gives a 54% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.8 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Orgryte IS 60% | IK brage 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Orgryte IS vs IK brage | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Gamla Ullevi • Kick-off: Saturday 29 Jul 2023, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Orgryte IS 51% | Draw 24% | IK brage 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 56% | xG Orgryte IS 1.73 / IK brage 1.12 • Poisson strength factors: Orgryte IS attack 0.985 / def 1.145 | IK brage attack 0.881 / def 1.225 | league avg home 1.434 / away 1.115 • Poisson stance: Orgryte IS (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.73
Orgryte IS xG
Expected Goals
1.12
IK brage xG
56%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Orgryte IS vs IK brage kick off?
Orgryte IS vs IK brage kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 29 July 2023 at Gamla Ullevi.
What was the final score in Orgryte IS vs IK brage?
Orgryte IS 1 - 1 IK brage.
Where is Orgryte IS vs IK brage being played?
The match is being played at Gamla Ullevi.
What competition is Orgryte IS vs IK brage part of?
Orgryte IS vs IK brage is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Orgryte IS vs IK brage?
Our statistical model gives Orgryte IS a 51% chance of winning, IK brage a 24% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Orgryte IS the favourite.
Will both teams score in Orgryte IS vs IK brage?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Orgryte IS and IK brage will score (BTTS).
Will Orgryte IS vs IK brage have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Orgryte IS and IK brage?
Record (5 meetings): Orgryte IS 2W | Draws 1 | IK brage 2W.
What form are Orgryte IS and IK brage in?
Orgryte IS (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-L-L-L. IK brage (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-W-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Orgryte IS's attack at 0.98x the league average against IK brage's defence at 1.23x — combine the two and it projects 1.73 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, IK brage's attack versus Orgryte IS's defence, projects 1.12 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 45/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 2-0 (8.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Orgryte IS Win
51%
1.95
24%
4.14
24%
4.09
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.0%
Home win
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.73
Orgryte IS xG
Total xG
2.86
1.12
IK brage xG
1.95
51%
Home win
4.14
24%
Draw
4.09
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.79
44%
BTTS No
2.26
Clean Sheet
32%
3.08
18%
5.65
Win to Nil
17%
5.99
4%
23.07
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.8 | 6.5 | 3.6 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.0 | 11.2 | 6.3 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.6 | 9.7 | 5.4 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.0 | 5.6 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.2 | 2.4 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Orgryte IS vs IK brage?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are Orgryte IS and IK brage expected to score?
The model projects 1.73 expected goals for Orgryte IS and 1.12 for IK brage, a combined total of 2.86.
How confident is the prediction model for Orgryte IS vs IK brage?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Orgryte IS's recent record stands at 12W 15D 18L from 45 games, a 1.13 PPG return, with L-L-L-L-L in the last five. The sample for Orgryte IS is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
IK brage, meanwhile, have gone 17W 11D 17L across 45 games — 1.38 PPG, with L-W-W-L-L in their last five. The sample for IK brage is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Orgryte IS on 1.13 PPG, IK brage on 1.38. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Orgryte IS have managed 6W 8D 8L from 22 games — 1.18 PPG in front of their own supporters.
IK brage's away record stands at 7W 6D 9L across 22 trips, a 1.23 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Orgryte IS are averaging 1.31 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game recently; IK brage are on 1.40 scored and 1.38 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: IK brage in 64%.
Last 45 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Orgryte IS
Blended
IK brage
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Orgryte IS and IK brage in coming into this match?
Orgryte IS have gone 12W 15D 18L in their last 45 games (1.13 PPG), while IK brage have gone 17W 11D 17L in their last 45 (1.38 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Orgryte IS at home or IK brage away?
IK brage's away record (1.23 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Orgryte IS at home: 1.18 PPG; IK brage away: 1.23 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Orgryte IS and IK brage runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to June 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. They last met on 23 August 2025, roughly 11 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 8 May 2022, when IK brage won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Orgryte IS's record when hosting IK brage specifically: 1W 3D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Orgryte IS
3
Draws
4
IK brage
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Orgryte IS and IK brage?
From 10 meetings on record, Orgryte IS have won 3, IK brage have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Orgryte IS and IK brage last play each other?
They last met on 23 August 2025, when Orgryte IS 2-2 IK brage.
Who has won more matches between Orgryte IS and IK brage?
IK brage have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Orgryte IS are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
IK brage are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Orgryte IS 54%, IK brage 68% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Orgryte IS) and 64% (IK brage). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 41% and 46% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Orgryte IS have failed to score in 27% of games; IK brage in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Orgryte IS home games / IK brage away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Orgryte IS play IK brage?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 54% of Orgryte IS's games and 68% of IK brage's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Orgryte IS vs IK brage usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 54% of Orgryte IS's matches and 64% of IK brage's.
Do Orgryte IS and IK brage tend to score early?
Orgryte IS have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, IK brage in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Orgryte IS and IK brage share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Gamla Ullevi, Regular Season - 16, as Orgryte IS and IK brage drew 1-1 in the Superettan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Orgryte IS 1.73 xG and IK brage 1.12 xG, a combined 2.86. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Orgryte IS attack 0.98 / defence 1.15 against IK brage attack 0.88 / defence 1.23, drawn from 45/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Orgryte IS 51% | Draw 24% | IK brage 24%, with Orgryte IS to win its most likely call at 51%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Orgryte IS 53%, IK brage 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Orgryte IS's trading profile (45 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
IK brage's trading profile (45 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Orgryte IS 1.13 PPG, IK brage 1.38 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.