Orgryte IS 1-3 Degerfors IF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Orgryte IS at 50%, yet other data sources diverge — this Orgryte IS vs Degerfors IF fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Degerfors IF make the trip to Gamla Ullevi to face Orgryte IS in Superettan, Regular Season - 20. The match kicks off on Monday 26 August 2024 at 18:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Orgryte IS have collected 1.70 PPG across 10 Superettan outings this season: 5W 2D 3L. Last five: D W W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Orgryte IS, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Orgryte IS's home record at Gamla Ullevi: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Superettan appearances (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Degerfors IF's overall Superettan record this term: 4W 5D 1L from 10 games (1.70 PPG). Last five: L W D D D. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.00. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Degerfors IF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Degerfors IF have gone 2W 6D 2L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.70 for Orgryte IS, 1.70 for Degerfors IF — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Orgryte IS register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, Degerfors IF in 80%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Orgryte IS lead 0W to 1W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 5.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 18 May 2024, ended 1–4 with Degerfors IF winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Orgryte IS — key trading statistics (49 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games).
Degerfors IF — key trading statistics (49 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Orgryte IS 57% and Degerfors IF 67% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Orgryte IS 55% | Degerfors IF 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Orgryte IS 1.69 xG and Degerfors IF 1.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Orgryte IS attack 1.183 / defence 1.074 | Degerfors IF attack 0.929 / defence 0.970. League average goals — home 1.473 / away 1.149. Data: 49 Orgryte IS games / 19 Degerfors IF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Orgryte IS 50% | Draw 25% | Degerfors IF 25%. Fair-value odds: Orgryte IS 2.00 | Draw 4.00 | Degerfors IF 4.00. Orgryte IS hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.84. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.84 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Orgryte IS are the pick at 50% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Orgryte IS if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.84 combined xG gives a 54% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 56%. Form rates corroborate: Orgryte IS 70% | Degerfors IF 80% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Orgryte IS vs Degerfors IF | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Gamla Ullevi • Kick-off: Monday 26 Aug 2024, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Orgryte IS 50% | Draw 25% | Degerfors IF 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 56% | xG Orgryte IS 1.69 / Degerfors IF 1.15 • Poisson strength factors: Orgryte IS attack 1.183 / def 1.074 | Degerfors IF attack 0.929 / def 0.970 | league avg home 1.473 / away 1.149 • Poisson stance: Orgryte IS (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.69
Orgryte IS xG
Expected Goals
1.15
Degerfors IF xG
56%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Orgryte IS vs Degerfors IF kick off?
Orgryte IS vs Degerfors IF kicked off at 18:00 on Monday 26 August 2024 at Gamla Ullevi.
What was the final score in Orgryte IS vs Degerfors IF?
Orgryte IS 1 - 3 Degerfors IF.
Where is Orgryte IS vs Degerfors IF being played?
The match is being played at Gamla Ullevi.
What competition is Orgryte IS vs Degerfors IF part of?
Orgryte IS vs Degerfors IF is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Orgryte IS vs Degerfors IF?
Our statistical model gives Orgryte IS a 50% chance of winning, Degerfors IF a 25% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Orgryte IS the favourite.
Will both teams score in Orgryte IS vs Degerfors IF?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Orgryte IS and Degerfors IF will score (BTTS).
Will Orgryte IS vs Degerfors IF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Orgryte IS and Degerfors IF?
Record (1 meetings): Orgryte IS 0W | Draws 0 | Degerfors IF 1W.
What form are Orgryte IS and Degerfors IF in?
Orgryte IS (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-W-W-W-L. Degerfors IF (all comps): 4W-5D-1L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-W-D-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Orgryte IS's attack at 1.18x the league average against Degerfors IF's defence at 0.97x — combine the two and it projects 1.69 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Degerfors IF's attack (0.93x) against Orgryte IS's defence (1.07x) — and the away total comes out at 1.15.
These ratings are built from 49/19 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 1-0 (8.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Orgryte IS Win
50%
2.02
25%
3.97
25%
3.96
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.9%
Home win
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.69
Orgryte IS xG
Total xG
2.84
1.15
Degerfors IF xG
2.02
50%
Home win
3.97
25%
Draw
3.96
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.78
44%
BTTS No
2.28
Clean Sheet
32%
3.15
18%
5.43
Win to Nil
16%
6.35
5%
21.50
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.9 | 6.7 | 3.8 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.9 | 11.4 | 6.5 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.4 | 9.6 | 5.5 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.7 | 5.4 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.0 | 2.3 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Orgryte IS vs Degerfors IF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.8%.
How many goals are Orgryte IS and Degerfors IF expected to score?
The model projects 1.69 expected goals for Orgryte IS and 1.15 for Degerfors IF, a combined total of 2.84.
How confident is the prediction model for Orgryte IS vs Degerfors IF?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Orgryte IS's recent record stands at 16W 11D 22L from 49 games, a 1.20 PPG return, with D-W-W-W-L in the last five. The sample for Orgryte IS is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Degerfors IF, meanwhile, have gone 15W 13D 21L across 49 games — 1.18 PPG, with L-W-D-D-D in their last five. The sample for Degerfors IF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.20 PPG for Orgryte IS against 1.18 for Degerfors IF. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Orgryte IS have managed 8W 6D 10L from 24 games — 1.25 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Degerfors IF's away record stands at 4W 8D 12L across 24 trips, a 0.83 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Orgryte IS come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Orgryte IS are averaging 1.27 goals scored and 1.47 conceded per game recently; Degerfors IF are on 1.29 scored and 1.69 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Degerfors IF in 67%.
Last 49 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Orgryte IS
Blended
Degerfors IF
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Orgryte IS and Degerfors IF in coming into this match?
Orgryte IS have gone 16W 11D 22L in their last 49 games (1.20 PPG), while Degerfors IF have gone 15W 13D 21L in their last 49 (1.18 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Orgryte IS at home or Degerfors IF away?
Orgryte IS's home record (1.25 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Orgryte IS at home: 1.25 PPG; Degerfors IF away: 0.83 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 3 times since May 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Superettan, Allsvenskan all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 27 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Degerfors IF won 4-1 on 18 May 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Orgryte IS have gone 0W 1D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Degerfors IF — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 3 Meetings
0
Orgryte IS
1
Draws
2
Degerfors IF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Orgryte IS and Degerfors IF?
From 3 meetings on record, Orgryte IS have won 0, Degerfors IF have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Orgryte IS and Degerfors IF last play each other?
They last met on 27 April 2026, when Orgryte IS 1-1 Degerfors IF.
Who has won more matches between Orgryte IS and Degerfors IF?
Degerfors IF have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 3 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Orgryte IS are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Degerfors IF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 21% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Orgryte IS 62%, Degerfors IF 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (Orgryte IS) and 50% (Degerfors IF). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Orgryte IS home games / Degerfors IF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Orgryte IS play Degerfors IF?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Orgryte IS's games and 62% of Degerfors IF's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Orgryte IS vs Degerfors IF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of Orgryte IS's matches and 50% of Degerfors IF's.
Do Orgryte IS and Degerfors IF tend to score early?
Orgryte IS have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Degerfors IF in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Degerfors IF cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Orgryte IS.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Degerfors IF beat Orgryte IS 1-3 at Gamla Ullevi, Regular Season - 20, in the Superettan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Orgryte IS 1.69 xG and Degerfors IF 1.15 xG, a combined 2.84. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Degerfors IF outscored their 1.15 projection by 1.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Orgryte IS attack 1.18 / defence 1.07 against Degerfors IF attack 0.93 / defence 0.97, drawn from 49/19 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Orgryte IS 50% | Draw 25% | Degerfors IF 25%, with Orgryte IS to win its most likely call at 50%. Instead the game produced a Degerfors IF win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 32% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Orgryte IS 55%, Degerfors IF 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Orgryte IS's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Degerfors IF's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Orgryte IS 1.20 PPG, Degerfors IF 1.18 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Degerfors IF win broke the near-deadlock. Orgryte IS (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.46 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Degerfors IF (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.96 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.