Orgryte IS 3-3 Dalkurd FF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Orgryte IS at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this Orgryte IS vs Dalkurd FF fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Dalkurd FF make the trip to Gamla Ullevi to face Orgryte IS in Superettan, Regular Season - 10. The match kicks off on Sunday 29 May 2022 at 12:00 UTC.
Form
Orgryte IS (all games): 3W 6D 1L across 10 Superettan fixtures this term — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W D W D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
Orgryte IS's home record at Gamla Ullevi: 4W 6D 0L from 10 Superettan appearances (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Dalkurd FF have collected 2.00 PPG across 2 Superettan outings this season: 1W 1D 0L. Last five: W D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.00. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Dalkurd FF have played only a handful of Superettan games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Dalkurd FF are 0.50 PPG clear of Orgryte IS in recent Superettan fixtures (2.00 vs 1.50). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using overall form) — Orgryte IS register both teams scoring in 90% of relevant games, Dalkurd FF in 100%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Orgryte IS 1.19 xG and Dalkurd FF 0.65 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Orgryte IS attack 0.791 / defence 1.060 | Dalkurd FF attack 0.458 / defence 1.028. League average goals — home 1.461 / away 1.349. Orgryte IS's attack strength of 0.791 is below the league average — the 1.19 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 39 Orgryte IS games / 9 Dalkurd FF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Orgryte IS 47% | Draw 34% | Dalkurd FF 19%. Fair-value odds: Orgryte IS 2.13 | Draw 2.94 | Dalkurd FF 5.26. Orgryte IS hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (34%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 28% | BTTS probability 35% | Total xG 1.84. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 72% probability — total xG of 1.84 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 65% — Dalkurd FF's lower xG of 0.65 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 35%.
Verdict
Both sides post BTTS form rates above 65% but Poisson BTTS probability is only 35% — the model sees a defensive matchup that form results do not yet show.
The Poisson model's primary lean is Orgryte IS at 47% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Dalkurd FF (2.00 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 34% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Orgryte IS if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 1.84 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 28% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Orgryte IS vs Dalkurd FF | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Gamla Ullevi • Kick-off: Sunday 29 May 2022, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Orgryte IS 47% | Draw 34% | Dalkurd FF 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 28% | BTTS 35% | xG Orgryte IS 1.19 / Dalkurd FF 0.65 • Poisson strength factors: Orgryte IS attack 0.791 / def 1.060 | Dalkurd FF attack 0.458 / def 1.028 | league avg home 1.461 / away 1.349 • Poisson stance: Orgryte IS (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.19
Orgryte IS xG
Expected Goals
0.65
Dalkurd FF xG
35%
BTTS
56%
Over 1.5
28%
Over 2.5
12%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Orgryte IS vs Dalkurd FF kick off?
Orgryte IS vs Dalkurd FF kicked off at 12:00 on Sunday 29 May 2022 at Gamla Ullevi.
What was the final score in Orgryte IS vs Dalkurd FF?
Orgryte IS 3 - 3 Dalkurd FF.
Where is Orgryte IS vs Dalkurd FF being played?
The match is being played at Gamla Ullevi.
What competition is Orgryte IS vs Dalkurd FF part of?
Orgryte IS vs Dalkurd FF is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Orgryte IS vs Dalkurd FF?
Our statistical model gives Orgryte IS a 47% chance of winning, Dalkurd FF a 19% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Orgryte IS the favourite.
Will both teams score in Orgryte IS vs Dalkurd FF?
Our model estimates a 35% probability that both Orgryte IS and Dalkurd FF will score (BTTS).
Will Orgryte IS vs Dalkurd FF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 28%.
What is the head-to-head record between Orgryte IS and Dalkurd FF?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Orgryte IS and Dalkurd FF in?
Orgryte IS (all comps): 3W-6D-1L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-D-W-D-W. Dalkurd FF (all comps): 1W-1D-0L in 2 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Orgryte IS's attacking strength (0.79x league average) is weighed against Dalkurd FF's defensive record (1.03x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.19. Flip it around — Dalkurd FF's attack (0.46x) against Orgryte IS's defence (1.06x) — and the away total comes out at 0.65.
These ratings are built from 39/9 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 17.5%. Close behind: 1-0 (17.2%), 1-1 (13.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 49% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Orgryte IS Win
47%
2.11
34%
2.98
19%
5.27
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
18.8%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
15.9%
Draw
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.19
Orgryte IS xG
Total xG
1.84
0.65
Dalkurd FF xG
2.11
47%
Home win
2.98
34%
Draw
5.27
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
55%
Over 1.5
1.82
45%
Under 1.5
2.22
28%
Over 2.5
3.57
72%
Under 2.5
1.39
12%
Over 3.5
8.33
88%
Under 3.5
1.14
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
35%
BTTS Yes
2.87
65%
BTTS No
1.53
Clean Sheet
52%
1.92
30%
3.28
Win to Nil
25%
4.05
6%
17.30
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 15.9 | 10.4 | 3.4 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 18.8 | 12.3 | 4.0 | 0.9 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 11.2 | 7.3 | 2.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 4.4 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Orgryte IS vs Dalkurd FF?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.5%.
How many goals are Orgryte IS and Dalkurd FF expected to score?
The model projects 1.19 expected goals for Orgryte IS and 0.65 for Dalkurd FF, a combined total of 1.84.
How confident is the prediction model for Orgryte IS vs Dalkurd FF?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Orgryte IS's recent record stands at 1W 1D 0L from 2 games, a 2.00 PPG return, with D-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for Orgryte IS, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Dalkurd FF, meanwhile, have gone 1W 1D 0L across 2 games — 2.00 PPG, with W-D in their last five. It's still early in the season for Dalkurd FF, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 2.00 PPG for Orgryte IS against 2.00 for Dalkurd FF. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Orgryte IS are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Dalkurd FF are on 1.50 scored and 1.00 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Orgryte IS have seen both teams score in 100% of their recent games; Dalkurd FF in 100%.
Last 2 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Orgryte IS
Early Season
Dalkurd FF
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Orgryte IS and Dalkurd FF in coming into this match?
Orgryte IS have gone 1W 1D 0L in their last 2 games (2.00 PPG), while Dalkurd FF have gone 1W 1D 0L in their last 2 (2.00 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since May 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. It has been a while since the last meeting — 13 August 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Orgryte IS
1
Draws
0
Dalkurd FF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Orgryte IS and Dalkurd FF?
From 2 meetings on record, Orgryte IS have won 1, Dalkurd FF have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Orgryte IS and Dalkurd FF last play each other?
They last met on 13 August 2022, when Dalkurd FF 1-2 Orgryte IS.
Who has won more matches between Orgryte IS and Dalkurd FF?
Orgryte IS have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Orgryte IS home games / Dalkurd FF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Orgryte IS play Dalkurd FF?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 100% of Orgryte IS's games and 100% of Dalkurd FF's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Orgryte IS vs Dalkurd FF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Orgryte IS's recent games and 50% of Dalkurd FF's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Orgryte IS and Dalkurd FF tend to score early?
Orgryte IS have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Dalkurd FF in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Orgryte IS and Dalkurd FF share the spoils in a 3-3 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Gamla Ullevi, Regular Season - 10, as Orgryte IS and Dalkurd FF drew 3-3 in the Superettan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Orgryte IS 1.19 xG and Dalkurd FF 0.65 xG, a combined 1.84. The scoreboard read 3-3 for 6 actual goals. Orgryte IS beat their projection by 1.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Dalkurd FF outscored their 0.65 projection by 2.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Orgryte IS attack 0.79 / defence 1.06 against Dalkurd FF attack 0.46 / defence 1.03, drawn from 39/9 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Orgryte IS 47% | Draw 34% | Dalkurd FF 19%, with Orgryte IS to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 28%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 56% and landed. Over 3.5 was 12% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 35% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Orgryte IS 50%, Dalkurd FF 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 100%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Orgryte IS 2.00 PPG, Dalkurd FF 2.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Orgryte IS scored 3 against a 1.50 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Dalkurd FF scored 3 against a 1.50 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.