Orgryte IS 3-1 Akropolis – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Orgryte IS at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Orgryte IS vs Akropolis fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Superettan clash, Regular Season - 20 as Orgryte IS welcome Akropolis to Gamla Ullevi. Kick-off is set for Saturday 11 September 2021 at 12:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Orgryte IS — All Games: 4W 4D 2L from 10 Superettan outings this season, averaging 1.60 points per game. Last five: L D D D W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Orgryte IS, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Orgryte IS at Gamla Ullevi this season: 2W 5D 2L from 9 home games — 1.22 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.89 goals scored and 0.89 conceded per game.
Across all Superettan games this season, Akropolis have recorded 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W L W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Akropolis, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Akropolis away from home this season: 2W 4D 4L from 10 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Orgryte IS at 1.60 PPG versus Akropolis's 1.40. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Orgryte IS have won 1, Akropolis 0, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The last 1 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.0 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 15 May 2021, ended 1–0 with Orgryte IS winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Orgryte IS trading profile (19 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 44% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 22% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Akropolis trading profile (19 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 89% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Orgryte IS 53% versus Akropolis 53%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Orgryte IS 37% | Akropolis 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Orgryte IS 1.31 xG and Akropolis 1.17 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Orgryte IS attack 0.897 / defence 1.072 | Akropolis attack 0.991 / defence 1.361. League average goals — home 1.072 / away 1.097. Akropolis bring a strong defensive rating of 1.361 — this is suppressing Orgryte IS's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 19 Orgryte IS games / 19 Akropolis games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Orgryte IS 40% | Draw 27% | Akropolis 33%. Fair-value odds: Orgryte IS 2.50 | Draw 3.70 | Akropolis 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.48. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.48 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Orgryte IS at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Orgryte IS offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.48 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 45% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 50% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Orgryte IS 44% | Akropolis 60%.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Orgryte IS vs Akropolis | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Gamla Ullevi • Kick-off: Saturday 11 Sep 2021, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Orgryte IS 40% | Draw 27% | Akropolis 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 50% | xG Orgryte IS 1.31 / Akropolis 1.17 • Poisson strength factors: Orgryte IS attack 0.897 / def 1.072 | Akropolis attack 0.991 / def 1.361 | league avg home 1.072 / away 1.097 • Poisson stance: Orgryte IS (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.31
Orgryte IS xG
Expected Goals
1.17
Akropolis xG
50%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Orgryte IS vs Akropolis kick off?
Orgryte IS vs Akropolis kicked off at 12:00 on Saturday 11 September 2021 at Gamla Ullevi.
What was the final score in Orgryte IS vs Akropolis?
Orgryte IS 3 - 1 Akropolis.
Where is Orgryte IS vs Akropolis being played?
The match is being played at Gamla Ullevi.
What competition is Orgryte IS vs Akropolis part of?
Orgryte IS vs Akropolis is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Orgryte IS vs Akropolis?
Our statistical model gives Orgryte IS a 40% chance of winning, Akropolis a 33% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Orgryte IS the favourite.
Will both teams score in Orgryte IS vs Akropolis?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Orgryte IS and Akropolis will score (BTTS).
Will Orgryte IS vs Akropolis have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Orgryte IS and Akropolis?
Record (1 meetings): Orgryte IS 1W | Draws 0 | Akropolis 0W.
What form are Orgryte IS and Akropolis in?
Orgryte IS (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-D-D-D-W. Akropolis (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-L-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Orgryte IS's attacking strength (0.90x league average) is weighed against Akropolis's defensive record (1.36x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.31. The same calculation in reverse, Akropolis's attack versus Orgryte IS's defence, projects 1.17 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 19/19 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.5%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.1%), 1-0 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Orgryte IS Win
40%
2.51
27%
3.69
33%
3.03
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.0%
Home win
0 – 1
9.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.31
Orgryte IS xG
Total xG
2.48
1.17
Akropolis xG
2.51
40%
Home win
3.69
27%
Draw
3.03
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.99
50%
BTTS No
2.01
Clean Sheet
31%
3.21
27%
3.71
Win to Nil
12%
8.03
9%
11.23
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.4 | 9.8 | 5.7 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.0 | 12.8 | 7.5 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 8.4 | 4.9 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 3.7 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Orgryte IS vs Akropolis?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Orgryte IS and Akropolis expected to score?
The model projects 1.31 expected goals for Orgryte IS and 1.17 for Akropolis, a combined total of 2.48.
How confident is the prediction model for Orgryte IS vs Akropolis?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 19 outings, Orgryte IS have picked up 1.21 PPG on a 5W 8D 6L record — L-D-D-D-W across the most recent five. The sample for Orgryte IS is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Akropolis's form line: 5W 6D 8L from 19 games, 1.11 PPG, last five W-L-W-L-D. The sample for Akropolis is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Orgryte IS on 1.21 PPG, Akropolis on 1.11. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Orgryte IS have posted 1.22 PPG from 9 outings (2W 5D 2L).
On the road, Akropolis have gone 2W 4D 3L from 9 away games — 1.11 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Orgryte IS are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.26 conceded per game recently; Akropolis are on 1.00 scored and 1.58 conceded.
Last 19 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Orgryte IS
Blended
Akropolis
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Orgryte IS and Akropolis in coming into this match?
Orgryte IS have gone 5W 8D 6L in their last 19 games (1.21 PPG), while Akropolis have gone 5W 6D 8L in their last 19 (1.11 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Orgryte IS at home or Akropolis away?
Orgryte IS's home record (1.22 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Orgryte IS at home: 1.22 PPG; Akropolis away: 1.11 PPG.
Have Orgryte IS or Akropolis been keeping clean sheets recently?
Orgryte IS have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Akropolis in 16%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Orgryte IS and Akropolis runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to May 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. It has been a while since the last meeting — 11 September 2021, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
2
Orgryte IS
0
Draws
0
Akropolis
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Orgryte IS and Akropolis?
From 2 meetings on record, Orgryte IS have won 2, Akropolis have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Orgryte IS and Akropolis last play each other?
They last met on 11 September 2021, when Orgryte IS 3-1 Akropolis.
Who has won more matches between Orgryte IS and Akropolis?
Orgryte IS have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Orgryte IS see a goal before the break in 44% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 22% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Akropolis are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 89% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Orgryte IS 44%, Akropolis 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 22% for Orgryte IS and 33% for Akropolis.
On the defensive side: Orgryte IS keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Orgryte IS have failed to score in 44% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Orgryte IS home games / Akropolis away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Orgryte IS play Akropolis?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 44% of Orgryte IS's games and 67% of Akropolis's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Orgryte IS vs Akropolis usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 22% of Orgryte IS's recent games and 33% of Akropolis's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Orgryte IS and Akropolis tend to score early?
Orgryte IS have had a goal before half-time in 44% of their recent matches, Akropolis in 89% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Orgryte IS cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Akropolis.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Orgryte IS beat Akropolis 3-1 at Gamla Ullevi, Regular Season - 20, in the Superettan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Orgryte IS 1.31 xG and Akropolis 1.17 xG, a combined 2.48. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Orgryte IS beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Orgryte IS attack 0.90 / defence 1.07 against Akropolis attack 0.99 / defence 1.36, drawn from 19/19 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Orgryte IS 40% | Draw 27% | Akropolis 33%, with Orgryte IS to win its most likely call at 40%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. Over 3.5 was 24% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Orgryte IS 37%, Akropolis 42%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Orgryte IS's trading profile (19 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Akropolis's trading profile (19 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Orgryte IS 1.21 PPG, Akropolis 1.11 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Orgryte IS win broke the near-deadlock. Orgryte IS (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.89 average — above their attacking norm. Akropolis (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.56 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.