Orebro SK 0-0 Gais – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 36% as Orebro SK take on Gais.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Orebro SK host Gais at Behrn Arena in Superettan, Regular Season - 16. Kick-off is scheduled for Monday 31 July 2023 at 18:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Superettan games this season, Orebro SK have gone 2W 5D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: W L D D D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Orebro SK, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Behrn Arena, Orebro SK have gone 2W 6D 2L this season (10 games, 1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Behrn Arena.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Gais stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 Superettan matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W W D D L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 0.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Gais, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Gais's away record: 3W 3D 1L from 7 road trips in Superettan this season (1.71 PPG). Away from home they average 1.29 goals scored and 0.71 conceded per game. 3 clean sheets from 7 away games (43%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 57% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.10 PPG (Orebro SK) versus 1.50 (Gais). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Orebro SK have won 0, Gais 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 4.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 11 Jun 2023, ended 0–4 with Gais winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Orebro SK in-play tendencies (15 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 43% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 43% of the time; BTTS occurs in 29% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 14% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time; they fail to score in 47% of games.
Gais in-play tendencies (15 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time; they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Orebro SK 40% versus Gais 40%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Orebro SK 47% | Gais 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Orebro SK 0.85 xG and Gais 0.76 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Orebro SK attack 0.762 / defence 0.740 | Gais attack 0.926 / defence 0.784. League average goals — home 1.423 / away 1.112. Orebro SK's attack strength of 0.762 is below the league average — the 0.85 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Gais's defence strength of 0.784 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Orebro SK's defence rating of 0.740 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 45 Orebro SK games / 15 Gais games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Orebro SK 35% | Draw 36% | Gais 30%. Fair-value odds: Orebro SK 2.86 | Draw 2.78 | Gais 3.33. The draw (36%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 22% | BTTS probability 31% | Total xG 1.61. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 78% probability — total xG of 1.61 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 69% — Gais's lower xG of 0.76 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 31%.
Analysis Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 36% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 35% and away win at 30% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
Poisson projects 1.61 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 22% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 31%. Form rates are neutral: Orebro SK 40% | Gais 57%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Orebro SK vs Gais | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Behrn Arena • Kick-off: Monday 31 Jul 2023, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Orebro SK 35% | Draw 36% | Gais 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 22% | BTTS 31% | xG Orebro SK 0.85 / Gais 0.76 • Poisson strength factors: Orebro SK attack 0.762 / def 0.740 | Gais attack 0.926 / def 0.784 | league avg home 1.423 / away 1.112 • Poisson stance: Draw (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.85
Orebro SK xG
Expected Goals
0.76
Gais xG
31%
BTTS
48%
Over 1.5
22%
Over 2.5
8%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Orebro SK vs Gais kick off?
Orebro SK vs Gais kicked off at 18:00 on Monday 31 July 2023 at Behrn Arena.
What was the final score in Orebro SK vs Gais?
Orebro SK 0 - 0 Gais.
Where is Orebro SK vs Gais being played?
The match is being played at Behrn Arena.
What competition is Orebro SK vs Gais part of?
Orebro SK vs Gais is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Orebro SK vs Gais?
Our statistical model gives Orebro SK a 35% chance of winning, Gais a 30% chance, and a 36% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Orebro SK vs Gais?
Our model estimates a 31% probability that both Orebro SK and Gais will score (BTTS).
Will Orebro SK vs Gais have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 22%.
What is the head-to-head record between Orebro SK and Gais?
Record (1 meetings): Orebro SK 0W | Draws 0 | Gais 1W.
What form are Orebro SK and Gais in?
Orebro SK (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-D-D-D. Gais (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Orebro SK's attack rating (0.76) and Gais's defence rating (0.78), the model arrives at 0.85 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Gais's attack versus Orebro SK's defence, projects 0.76 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 45/15 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 21.6%. Close behind: 1-0 (15.3%), 1-1 (14.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 52% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
35%
2.89
36%
2.79
30%
3.38
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
19.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
17.0%
Home win
0 – 1
15.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.85
Orebro SK xG
Total xG
1.61
0.76
Gais xG
2.89
35%
Home win
2.79
36%
Draw
3.38
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
48%
Over 1.5
2.08
52%
Under 1.5
1.92
22%
Over 2.5
4.55
78%
Under 2.5
1.28
8%
Over 3.5
12.50
92%
Under 3.5
1.09
2%
Over 4.5
50.00
98%
Under 4.5
1.02
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
31%
BTTS Yes
3.24
69%
BTTS No
1.45
Clean Sheet
47%
2.14
43%
2.34
Win to Nil
16%
6.20
13%
7.92
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 19.9 | 15.2 | 5.8 | 1.5 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 17.0 | 12.9 | 4.9 | 1.3 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 7.2 | 5.5 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 2.0 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Orebro SK vs Gais?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 21.6%.
How many goals are Orebro SK and Gais expected to score?
The model projects 0.85 expected goals for Orebro SK and 0.76 for Gais, a combined total of 1.61.
How confident is the prediction model for Orebro SK vs Gais?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Orebro SK come into this having played 15 games, going 3W 7D 5L for 1.07 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-D-D-D. The sample for Orebro SK is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Gais sit at 1.67 PPG from 15 outings (7W 4D 4L), a run that reads W-W-D-D-L across their last five. The sample for Gais is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Gais carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.60 PPG clear of Orebro SK — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Orebro SK's home form reads 2W 4D 1L across 7 games on their own ground, a 1.43 PPG return.
Away from home, Gais have taken 1.71 points per game from 7 outings (3W 3D 1L).
The Goals Picture
Orebro SK are averaging 0.93 goals scored and 1.27 conceded per game recently; Gais are on 1.40 scored and 0.73 conceded.
Defensively: Orebro SK have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games; Gais in 40% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 15 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Orebro SK
Blended
Gais
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Orebro SK and Gais in coming into this match?
Orebro SK have gone 3W 7D 5L in their last 15 games (1.07 PPG), while Gais have gone 7W 4D 4L in their last 15 (1.67 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Orebro SK at home or Gais away?
Gais's away record (1.71 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Orebro SK at home: 1.43 PPG; Gais away: 1.71 PPG.
Have Orebro SK or Gais been keeping clean sheets recently?
Orebro SK have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their recent games, Gais in 40%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Orebro SK and Gais runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to June 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. It has been a while since the last meeting — 31 July 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Orebro SK
1
Draws
1
Gais
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Orebro SK and Gais?
From 2 meetings on record, Orebro SK have won 0, Gais have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Orebro SK and Gais last play each other?
They last met on 31 July 2023, when Orebro SK 0-0 Gais.
Who has won more matches between Orebro SK and Gais?
Gais have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Orebro SK see a goal before the break in 43% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Gais are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Orebro SK 29%, Gais 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 14% (Orebro SK) and 57% (Gais).
On the defensive side: Orebro SK keep a clean sheet in 57% of their matches; Gais in 43%; Orebro SK have failed to score in 43% of games; Gais in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Orebro SK home games / Gais away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Orebro SK play Gais?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 29% of Orebro SK's recent matches and 57% of Gais's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Orebro SK vs Gais usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 14% of Orebro SK's recent games and 57% of Gais's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Orebro SK and Gais tend to score early?
Orebro SK have had a goal before half-time in 43% of their recent matches, Gais in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Orebro SK's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Behrn Arena, Regular Season - 16, as Orebro SK and Gais drew 0-0 in the Superettan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Orebro SK 0.85 xG and Gais 0.76 xG, a combined 1.61. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Orebro SK fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Orebro SK attack 0.76 / defence 0.74 against Gais attack 0.93 / defence 0.78, drawn from 45/15 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Orebro SK 35% | Draw 36% | Gais 30%, with the draw its most likely call at 36%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 22%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 48% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 31% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Orebro SK 47%, Gais 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 40%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Orebro SK's trading profile (15 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 47% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Gais's trading profile (15 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Gais arrived the stronger side — 1.67 PPG against 1.07. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Orebro SK (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward. Gais (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.29 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.