Orebro SK 1-3 Dalkurd FF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Orebro SK at 57%, yet other data sources diverge — this Orebro SK vs Dalkurd FF fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Orebro SK host Dalkurd FF at Behrn Arena in Superettan, Regular Season - 26. Kick-off is scheduled for Monday 10 October 2022 at 18:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Superettan games this season, Orebro SK have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: W D L W W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Orebro SK, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Orebro SK at Behrn Arena this season: 4W 2D 4L from 10 home games — 1.40 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Dalkurd FF — All Games: 2W 1D 7L from 10 Superettan fixtures this season — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L L L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Dalkurd FF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Dalkurd FF have gone 1W 3D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Orebro SK at 1.10 PPG versus Dalkurd FF's 0.70. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Orebro SK have won 1, Dalkurd FF 0, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 16 Jul 2022, ended 2–0 with Orebro SK winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Orebro SK in-play tendencies (27 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
Dalkurd FF in-play tendencies (27 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Orebro SK 41% versus Dalkurd FF 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Orebro SK 41% | Dalkurd FF 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Orebro SK 1.73 xG and Dalkurd FF 0.89 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Orebro SK attack 0.866 / defence 1.032 | Dalkurd FF attack 0.678 / defence 1.388. League average goals — home 1.435 / away 1.277. Dalkurd FF bring a strong defensive rating of 1.388 — this is suppressing Orebro SK's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 25 Orebro SK games / 25 Dalkurd FF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Orebro SK 57% | Draw 25% | Dalkurd FF 19%. Fair-value odds: Orebro SK 1.75 | Draw 4.00 | Dalkurd FF 5.26. The model has a clear lean to Orebro SK (57%) — a 38pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.62. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.62 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Orebro SK at 57% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.62 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 49% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 49%. Form rates corroborate: Orebro SK 40% | Dalkurd FF 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Orebro SK vs Dalkurd FF | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Behrn Arena • Kick-off: Monday 10 Oct 2022, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Orebro SK 57% | Draw 25% | Dalkurd FF 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 49% | xG Orebro SK 1.73 / Dalkurd FF 0.89 • Poisson strength factors: Orebro SK attack 0.866 / def 1.032 | Dalkurd FF attack 0.678 / def 1.388 | league avg home 1.435 / away 1.277 • Poisson stance: Orebro SK (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.73
Orebro SK xG
Expected Goals
0.89
Dalkurd FF xG
49%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Orebro SK vs Dalkurd FF kick off?
Orebro SK vs Dalkurd FF kicked off at 18:00 on Monday 10 October 2022 at Behrn Arena.
What was the final score in Orebro SK vs Dalkurd FF?
Orebro SK 1 - 3 Dalkurd FF.
Where is Orebro SK vs Dalkurd FF being played?
The match is being played at Behrn Arena.
What competition is Orebro SK vs Dalkurd FF part of?
Orebro SK vs Dalkurd FF is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Orebro SK vs Dalkurd FF?
Our statistical model gives Orebro SK a 57% chance of winning, Dalkurd FF a 19% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Orebro SK the favourite.
Will both teams score in Orebro SK vs Dalkurd FF?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Orebro SK and Dalkurd FF will score (BTTS).
Will Orebro SK vs Dalkurd FF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Orebro SK and Dalkurd FF?
Record (1 meetings): Orebro SK 1W | Draws 0 | Dalkurd FF 0W.
What form are Orebro SK and Dalkurd FF in?
Orebro SK (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-D-L-W-W. Dalkurd FF (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Orebro SK's attacking strength (0.87x league average) is weighed against Dalkurd FF's defensive record (1.39x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.73. The same calculation in reverse, Dalkurd FF's attack versus Orebro SK's defence, projects 0.89 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 25/25 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.7%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.1%), 2-0 (10.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Orebro SK Win
57%
1.77
25%
4.07
19%
5.31
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
2 – 0
10.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.73
Orebro SK xG
Total xG
2.62
0.89
Dalkurd FF xG
1.77
57%
Home win
4.07
25%
Draw
5.31
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.04
51%
BTTS No
1.96
Clean Sheet
41%
2.44
18%
5.62
Win to Nil
23%
4.31
3%
29.85
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.3 | 6.5 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 12.6 | 11.2 | 5.0 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.9 | 9.7 | 4.3 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.2 | 5.6 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.7 | 2.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Orebro SK vs Dalkurd FF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are Orebro SK and Dalkurd FF expected to score?
The model projects 1.73 expected goals for Orebro SK and 0.89 for Dalkurd FF, a combined total of 2.62.
How confident is the prediction model for Orebro SK vs Dalkurd FF?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Orebro SK's recent record stands at 10W 5D 12L from 27 games, a 1.30 PPG return, with W-D-L-W-W in the last five. The sample for Orebro SK is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Dalkurd FF, meanwhile, have gone 7W 4D 16L across 27 games — 0.93 PPG, with L-L-L-W-L in their last five. The sample for Dalkurd FF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Orebro SK on 1.30 PPG, Dalkurd FF on 0.93. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Orebro SK have managed 6W 2D 5L from 13 games — 1.54 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Dalkurd FF's away record stands at 1W 4D 8L across 13 trips, a 0.54 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Orebro SK come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Orebro SK are averaging 1.11 goals scored and 1.22 conceded per game recently; Dalkurd FF are on 1.04 scored and 1.74 conceded.
Last 27 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Orebro SK
Blended
Dalkurd FF
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Orebro SK and Dalkurd FF in coming into this match?
Orebro SK have gone 10W 5D 12L in their last 27 games (1.30 PPG), while Dalkurd FF have gone 7W 4D 16L in their last 27 (0.93 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Orebro SK at home or Dalkurd FF away?
Orebro SK's home record (1.54 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Orebro SK at home: 1.54 PPG; Dalkurd FF away: 0.54 PPG.
Have Orebro SK or Dalkurd FF been keeping clean sheets recently?
Orebro SK have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Dalkurd FF in 15%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to July 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. It has been a while since the last meeting — 10 October 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Orebro SK
0
Draws
1
Dalkurd FF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Orebro SK and Dalkurd FF?
From 2 meetings on record, Orebro SK have won 1, Dalkurd FF have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Orebro SK and Dalkurd FF last play each other?
They last met on 10 October 2022, when Orebro SK 1-3 Dalkurd FF.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Orebro SK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches.
Dalkurd FF see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Orebro SK 38%, Dalkurd FF 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (Orebro SK) and 46% (Dalkurd FF).
On the defensive side: Orebro SK keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Orebro SK have failed to score in 38% of games; Dalkurd FF in 54%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Orebro SK home games / Dalkurd FF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Orebro SK play Dalkurd FF?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of Orebro SK's recent matches and 38% of Dalkurd FF's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Orebro SK vs Dalkurd FF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Orebro SK's recent games and 46% of Dalkurd FF's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Orebro SK and Dalkurd FF tend to score early?
Orebro SK have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Dalkurd FF in 54% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dalkurd FF cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Orebro SK.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Dalkurd FF beat Orebro SK 1-3 at Behrn Arena, Regular Season - 26, in the Superettan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Orebro SK 1.73 xG and Dalkurd FF 0.89 xG, a combined 2.62. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Dalkurd FF outscored their 0.89 projection by 2.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Orebro SK attack 0.87 / defence 1.03 against Dalkurd FF attack 0.68 / defence 1.39, drawn from 25/25 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Orebro SK 57% | Draw 25% | Dalkurd FF 19%, with Orebro SK to win its most likely call at 57%. Instead the game produced a Dalkurd FF win, an outcome the model had rated at just 19% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. Over 3.5 was 27% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Orebro SK 41%, Dalkurd FF 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Orebro SK's trading profile (27 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Dalkurd FF's trading profile (27 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Orebro SK 1.30 PPG, Dalkurd FF 0.93 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Dalkurd FF win broke the near-deadlock. Orebro SK (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.15 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Dalkurd FF (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.69 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.