Oddevold 0-0 Orebro SK – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Oddevold at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Oddevold vs Orebro SK fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Oddevold host Orebro SK at Rimnersvallen in Superettan, Regular Season - 24. Kick-off is scheduled for Monday 23 September 2024 at 18:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Superettan games this season, Oddevold have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.20 PPG return. Last five: W L L W D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 2.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Oddevold, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Oddevold have posted 4W 3D 3L at Rimnersvallen — 1.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Orebro SK — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Superettan fixtures this season — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W L D L W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.30. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Orebro SK, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Superettan this season, Orebro SK have posted 1W 2D 7L from 10 away outings — 0.50 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.20 PPG (Oddevold) versus 1.40 (Orebro SK). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Oddevold register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant matches, Orebro SK in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Oddevold, 0 for Orebro SK and 1 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 2 Jun 2024, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Oddevold in-play tendencies (23 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 40% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
Orebro SK in-play tendencies (23 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Oddevold 61% and Orebro SK 61% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Oddevold 70% | Orebro SK 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Oddevold 1.67 xG and Orebro SK 1.42 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Oddevold attack 0.941 / defence 1.315 | Orebro SK attack 0.896 / defence 1.303. League average goals — home 1.358 / away 1.209. Orebro SK bring a strong defensive rating of 1.303 — this is suppressing Oddevold's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 23 Oddevold games / 53 Orebro SK games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Oddevold 43% | Draw 25% | Orebro SK 32%. Fair-value odds: Oddevold 2.33 | Draw 4.00 | Orebro SK 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.09. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.09 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.67 / 1.42) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Oddevold at 43% — marginal model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Oddevold offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.09 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 60% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 62% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Oddevold 70% | Orebro SK 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Oddevold vs Orebro SK | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Rimnersvallen • Kick-off: Monday 23 Sep 2024, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Oddevold 43% | Draw 25% | Orebro SK 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 62% | xG Oddevold 1.67 / Orebro SK 1.42 • Poisson strength factors: Oddevold attack 0.941 / def 1.315 | Orebro SK attack 0.896 / def 1.303 | league avg home 1.358 / away 1.209 • Poisson stance: Oddevold (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.67
Oddevold xG
Expected Goals
1.42
Orebro SK xG
62%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Oddevold vs Orebro SK kick off?
Oddevold vs Orebro SK kicked off at 18:00 on Monday 23 September 2024 at Rimnersvallen.
What was the final score in Oddevold vs Orebro SK?
Oddevold 0 - 0 Orebro SK.
Where is Oddevold vs Orebro SK being played?
The match is being played at Rimnersvallen.
What competition is Oddevold vs Orebro SK part of?
Oddevold vs Orebro SK is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Oddevold vs Orebro SK?
Our statistical model gives Oddevold a 43% chance of winning, Orebro SK a 32% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Oddevold the favourite.
Will both teams score in Oddevold vs Orebro SK?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Oddevold and Orebro SK will score (BTTS).
Will Oddevold vs Orebro SK have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between Oddevold and Orebro SK?
Record (1 meetings): Oddevold 0W | Draws 1 | Orebro SK 0W.
What form are Oddevold and Orebro SK in?
Oddevold (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 2.20 | L5 W-L-L-W-D. Orebro SK (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Oddevold's attack at 0.94x the league average against Orebro SK's defence at 1.30x — combine the two and it projects 1.67 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Orebro SK's attack versus Oddevold's defence, projects 1.42 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 23/53 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.0%), 1-2 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Oddevold Win
43%
2.35
25%
3.97
32%
3.11
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.8%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
1 – 2
7.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.67
Oddevold xG
Total xG
3.09
1.42
Orebro SK xG
2.35
43%
Home win
3.97
25%
Draw
3.11
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.60
38%
BTTS No
2.65
Clean Sheet
24%
4.15
19%
5.29
Win to Nil
10%
9.74
6%
16.46
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.6 | 6.5 | 4.6 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.6 | 10.8 | 7.7 | 3.6 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.3 | 9.0 | 6.4 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 5.0 | 3.6 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 2.1 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Oddevold vs Orebro SK?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.2%.
How many goals are Oddevold and Orebro SK expected to score?
The model projects 1.67 expected goals for Oddevold and 1.42 for Orebro SK, a combined total of 3.09.
How confident is the prediction model for Oddevold vs Orebro SK?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Oddevold come into this having played 23 games, going 6W 8D 9L for 1.13 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-L-W-D. The sample for Oddevold is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Orebro SK sit at 1.17 PPG from 23 outings (7W 6D 10L), a run that reads W-L-D-L-W across their last five. The sample for Orebro SK is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Oddevold on 1.13 PPG, Orebro SK on 1.17. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Oddevold's home form reads 4W 4D 3L across 11 games on their own ground, a 1.45 PPG return.
Away from home, Orebro SK have taken 0.45 points per game from 11 outings (1W 2D 8L). That's a step down from their 1.17 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Orebro SK's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Oddevold come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Oddevold are averaging 1.13 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game recently; Orebro SK are on 1.26 scored and 1.30 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Oddevold have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games; Orebro SK in 61%.
Last 23 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Oddevold
Blended
Orebro SK
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Oddevold and Orebro SK in coming into this match?
Oddevold have gone 6W 8D 9L in their last 23 games (1.13 PPG), while Orebro SK have gone 7W 6D 10L in their last 23 (1.17 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Oddevold at home or Orebro SK away?
Oddevold's home record (1.45 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Oddevold at home: 1.45 PPG; Orebro SK away: 0.45 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to June 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. The two were last together as recently as 27 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 18 May 2026, when Oddevold won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Oddevold's record when hosting Orebro SK specifically: 2W 1D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Oddevold
4
Draws
0
Orebro SK
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Oddevold and Orebro SK?
From 6 meetings on record, Oddevold have won 2, Orebro SK have won 0, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Oddevold and Orebro SK last play each other?
They last met on 27 July 2026, when Orebro SK 0-0 Oddevold.
Who has won more matches between Oddevold and Orebro SK?
Oddevold have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Oddevold are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time.
Orebro SK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Oddevold 64%, Orebro SK 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 64% (Oddevold) and 54% (Orebro SK). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 18% and 36% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Oddevold have failed to score in 27% of games; Orebro SK in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Oddevold home games / Orebro SK away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Oddevold play Orebro SK?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of Oddevold's games and 64% of Orebro SK's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Oddevold vs Orebro SK usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 64% of Oddevold's matches and 54% of Orebro SK's.
Do Oddevold and Orebro SK tend to score early?
Oddevold have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Orebro SK in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Oddevold's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Oddevold and Orebro SK finished level at 0-0 at Rimnersvallen, Regular Season - 24, in the Superettan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Oddevold 1.67 xG and Orebro SK 1.42 xG, a combined 3.09. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Oddevold fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Orebro SK landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Oddevold attack 0.94 / defence 1.31 against Orebro SK attack 0.90 / defence 1.30, drawn from 23/53 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Oddevold 43% | Draw 25% | Orebro SK 32%, with Oddevold to win its most likely call at 43%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 82% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Oddevold 70%, Orebro SK 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Oddevold's trading profile (23 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 35% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Orebro SK's trading profile (23 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 35% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Oddevold 1.13 PPG, Orebro SK 1.17 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Oddevold (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.18 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.45 average — tighter than their form line. Orebro SK (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.91 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.82 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.