Oddevold 1-0 GIF Sundsvall – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Oddevold at 47% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Oddevold face GIF Sundsvall.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Oddevold welcome GIF Sundsvall to Rimnersvallen in Superettan (matchday 6). Kick-off is Saturday 4 May 2024 at 13:00 UK time.
Recent Form
GIF Sundsvall — last 10 games: 3W 3D 4L — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L W W D L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
GIF Sundsvall away from home: 1W 3D 6L from their last 10 away games — 0.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Oddevold 1.26 xG and GIF Sundsvall 0.76 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Oddevold attack 0.869 / defence 1.041 | GIF Sundsvall attack 0.817 / defence 1.101. League average goals — home 1.323 / away 0.889. Data: built from Oddevold's last 5 games and GIF Sundsvall's last 35.
Result probabilities: Oddevold 47% | Draw 33% | GIF Sundsvall 20%. Fair-value odds: Oddevold 2.15 | Draw 3.02 | GIF Sundsvall 4.92. Oddevold hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (33%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS Yes probability 40% | Total xG 2.02. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.02 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 60% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Oddevold as the most likely outcome at 47% — moderate model lean. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Oddevold offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.02 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 67% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Oddevold vs GIF Sundsvall | Competition: Superettan, matchday 6 | Venue: Rimnersvallen • Kick-off: Saturday 4 May 2024 at 13:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Oddevold 47% | Draw 33% | GIF Sundsvall 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% (Under 67%) | BTTS Yes 40% (No 60%) | xG Oddevold 1.26 / GIF Sundsvall 0.76 • Poisson strength factors: Oddevold attack 0.869 / def 1.041 | GIF Sundsvall attack 0.817 / def 1.101 | league avg home 1.323 / away 0.889 • Poisson stance: Oddevold (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.26
Oddevold xG
Expected Goals
0.76
GIF Sundsvall xG
40%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Oddevold vs GIF Sundsvall FAQs
What time does Oddevold vs GIF Sundsvall kick off?
Oddevold vs GIF Sundsvall kicked off at 13:00 UK time on Saturday 4 May 2024 at Rimnersvallen.
What was the final score in Oddevold vs GIF Sundsvall?
Oddevold 1 - 0 GIF Sundsvall.
Where is Oddevold vs GIF Sundsvall being played?
The match is being played at Rimnersvallen.
What competition is Oddevold vs GIF Sundsvall part of?
Oddevold vs GIF Sundsvall is a Superettan fixture (matchday 6) (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Oddevold vs GIF Sundsvall?
Our statistical model gives Oddevold a 47% chance of winning, GIF Sundsvall a 20% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Oddevold the favourite.
Will both teams score in Oddevold vs GIF Sundsvall?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Oddevold and GIF Sundsvall will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (60%).
Will Oddevold vs GIF Sundsvall have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (67%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Oddevold's attack at 0.87x the league average against GIF Sundsvall's defence at 1.10x — combine the two and it projects 1.26 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, GIF Sundsvall's attack versus Oddevold's defence, projects 0.76 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Oddevold's last 5 games and GIF Sundsvall's last 35 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-0 carries the highest individual probability at 15.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (14.9%), 1-1 (14.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Oddevold Win
47%
2.15
33%
3.02
20%
4.92
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.8%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.3%
Draw
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.26
Oddevold xG
Total xG
2.02
0.76
GIF Sundsvall xG
2.15
47%
Home win
3.02
33%
Draw
4.92
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.50
60%
BTTS No
1.67
Clean Sheet
47%
2.13
28%
3.54
Win to Nil
22%
4.57
6%
17.44
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.3 | 10.0 | 3.8 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 16.8 | 12.7 | 4.8 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 10.6 | 8.0 | 3.0 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 4.5 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Oddevold vs GIF Sundsvall Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Oddevold vs GIF Sundsvall?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Oddevold and GIF Sundsvall expected to score?
The model projects 1.26 expected goals for Oddevold and 0.76 for GIF Sundsvall, a combined total of 2.02.
How confident is the prediction model for Oddevold vs GIF Sundsvall?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Oddevold
Pre-Season
GIF Sundsvall
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
Oddevold (Home) vs GIF Sundsvall (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Oddevold
Pre-Season
GIF Sundsvall
Pre-Season
No results found for this venue split.
No results found for this venue split.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 6 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 2 years from May 2024. All of them came in Superettan. The most recent was as recently as 23 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear recent trend here: Oddevold have taken the most recent 3 H2H results in our data.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 23 Oct 2026, when Oddevold won Oddevold 7-0 GIF Sundsvall.
Oddevold's record when hosting GIF Sundsvall specifically: 2W 0D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
4
Oddevold
0
Draws
2
GIF Sundsvall
Recent Meetings
❓ Oddevold vs GIF Sundsvall H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Oddevold and GIF Sundsvall?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Oddevold have won 4, GIF Sundsvall have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Oddevold and GIF Sundsvall last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 23 October 2026: Oddevold 7-0 GIF Sundsvall.
Who has won more matches between Oddevold and GIF Sundsvall?
Oddevold have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Oddevold home games / GIF Sundsvall away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Prediction vindicated as Oddevold edge out GIF Sundsvall 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Oddevold beat GIF Sundsvall 1-0 at Rimnersvallen, Regular Season - 6, in the Superettan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Oddevold 1.26 xG and GIF Sundsvall 0.76 xG, a combined 2.02. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Oddevold attack 0.87 / defence 1.04 against GIF Sundsvall attack 0.82 / defence 1.10, drawn from 5/35 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Oddevold 47% | Draw 33% | GIF Sundsvall 20%, with Oddevold to win its most likely call at 47%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 62% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.