Oddevold 1-1 Degerfors IF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Degerfors IF at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Oddevold vs Degerfors IF fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Rimnersvallen plays host to Oddevold versus Degerfors IF in Superettan, Regular Season - 13. Kick-off: Sunday 23 June 2024 at 14:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Degerfors IF's overall Superettan record this term: 3W 7D 0L from 10 games (1.60 PPG). Last five: D W W D D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Degerfors IF haven't played a Superettan game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Degerfors IF away from home this season: 1W 4D 5L from 10 away games — 0.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Oddevold 0.96 xG and Degerfors IF 1.21 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Oddevold attack 0.803 / defence 1.096 | Degerfors IF attack 1.083 / defence 0.921. League average goals — home 1.296 / away 1.016. Data: 12 Oddevold games / 12 Degerfors IF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Oddevold 29% | Draw 29% | Degerfors IF 42%. Fair-value odds: Oddevold 3.45 | Draw 3.45 | Degerfors IF 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.17. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.17 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Degerfors IF as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Degerfors IF if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.17 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 37% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Oddevold vs Degerfors IF | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Rimnersvallen • Kick-off: Sunday 23 Jun 2024, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Oddevold 29% | Draw 29% | Degerfors IF 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 43% | xG Oddevold 0.96 / Degerfors IF 1.21 • Poisson strength factors: Oddevold attack 0.803 / def 1.096 | Degerfors IF attack 1.083 / def 0.921 | league avg home 1.296 / away 1.016 • Poisson stance: Degerfors IF (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.96
Oddevold xG
Expected Goals
1.21
Degerfors IF xG
43%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Oddevold vs Degerfors IF kick off?
Oddevold vs Degerfors IF kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 23 June 2024 at Rimnersvallen.
What was the final score in Oddevold vs Degerfors IF?
Oddevold 1 - 1 Degerfors IF.
Where is Oddevold vs Degerfors IF being played?
The match is being played at Rimnersvallen.
What competition is Oddevold vs Degerfors IF part of?
Oddevold vs Degerfors IF is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Oddevold vs Degerfors IF?
Our statistical model gives Oddevold a 29% chance of winning, Degerfors IF a 42% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Degerfors IF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Oddevold vs Degerfors IF?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Oddevold and Degerfors IF will score (BTTS).
Will Oddevold vs Degerfors IF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Oddevold and Degerfors IF?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Oddevold and Degerfors IF in?
No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data. Degerfors IF (all comps): 3W-7D-0L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-W-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Oddevold's attack rating (0.80) and Degerfors IF's defence rating (0.92), the model arrives at 0.96 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Degerfors IF's attack (1.08x) against Oddevold's defence (1.10x) — and the away total comes out at 1.21.
These ratings are built from 12/12 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.2%), 0-1 (12.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Degerfors IF Win
29%
3.43
29%
3.44
42%
2.40
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.8%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
0 – 0
11.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.96
Oddevold xG
Total xG
2.17
1.21
Degerfors IF xG
3.43
29%
Home win
3.44
29%
Draw
2.40
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.31
57%
BTTS No
1.76
Clean Sheet
30%
3.34
38%
2.61
Win to Nil
9%
11.45
16%
6.26
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.5 | 13.8 | 8.4 | 3.4 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.0 | 13.3 | 8.0 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.3 | 6.4 | 3.8 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 2.0 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Oddevold vs Degerfors IF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Oddevold and Degerfors IF expected to score?
The model projects 0.96 expected goals for Oddevold and 1.21 for Degerfors IF, a combined total of 2.17.
How confident is the prediction model for Oddevold vs Degerfors IF?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Oddevold
Pre-Season
Degerfors IF
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since June 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. It has been a while since the last meeting — 3 August 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Oddevold
2
Draws
0
Degerfors IF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Oddevold and Degerfors IF?
From 2 meetings on record, Oddevold have won 0, Degerfors IF have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Oddevold and Degerfors IF last play each other?
They last met on 3 August 2024, when Degerfors IF 2-2 Oddevold.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Oddevold home games / Degerfors IF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Oddevold and Degerfors IF share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Rimnersvallen, Regular Season - 13, as Oddevold and Degerfors IF drew 1-1 in the Superettan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Oddevold 0.96 xG and Degerfors IF 1.21 xG, a combined 2.17. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Oddevold attack 0.80 / defence 1.10 against Degerfors IF attack 1.08 / defence 0.92, drawn from 12/12 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Oddevold 29% | Draw 29% | Degerfors IF 42%, with Degerfors IF to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.