Norrby IF 1-1 Landskrona BoIS – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Norrby IF at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this Norrby IF vs Landskrona BoIS fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Superettan encounter, Regular Season - 4 sees Landskrona BoIS travel to Borås Arena to take on Norrby IF. The game is scheduled for Saturday 1 May 2021, 12:00 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Norrby IF 1.27 xG and Landskrona BoIS 0.67 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Norrby IF attack 1.064 / defence 1.050 | Landskrona BoIS attack 0.889 / defence 1.105. League average goals — home 1.082 / away 0.716. Data: 3 Norrby IF games / 3 Landskrona BoIS games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Norrby IF 47% | Draw 37% | Landskrona BoIS 16%. Fair-value odds: Norrby IF 2.13 | Draw 2.70 | Landskrona BoIS 6.25. Norrby IF hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (37%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 31% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 1.94. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 69% probability — total xG of 1.94 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Norrby IF at 47% — moderate model lean. With a 37% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Norrby IF offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 1.94 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 31% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (3 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Norrby IF vs Landskrona BoIS | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Borås Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 1 May 2021, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Norrby IF 47% | Draw 37% | Landskrona BoIS 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 31% | BTTS 39% | xG Norrby IF 1.27 / Landskrona BoIS 0.67 • Poisson strength factors: Norrby IF attack 1.064 / def 1.050 | Landskrona BoIS attack 0.889 / def 1.105 | league avg home 1.082 / away 0.716 • Poisson stance: Norrby IF (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.27
Norrby IF xG
Expected Goals
0.67
Landskrona BoIS xG
39%
BTTS
61%
Over 1.5
31%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Norrby IF vs Landskrona BoIS kick off?
Norrby IF vs Landskrona BoIS kicked off at 12:00 on Saturday 1 May 2021 at Borås Arena.
What was the final score in Norrby IF vs Landskrona BoIS?
Norrby IF 1 - 1 Landskrona BoIS.
Where is Norrby IF vs Landskrona BoIS being played?
The match is being played at Borås Arena.
What competition is Norrby IF vs Landskrona BoIS part of?
Norrby IF vs Landskrona BoIS is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Norrby IF vs Landskrona BoIS?
Our statistical model gives Norrby IF a 47% chance of winning, Landskrona BoIS a 16% chance, and a 37% chance of a draw — making Norrby IF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Norrby IF vs Landskrona BoIS?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both Norrby IF and Landskrona BoIS will score (BTTS).
Will Norrby IF vs Landskrona BoIS have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 31%.
What is the head-to-head record between Norrby IF and Landskrona BoIS?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Norrby IF and Landskrona BoIS in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Norrby IF's attack rating (1.06) and Landskrona BoIS's defence rating (1.10), the model arrives at 1.27 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Landskrona BoIS's attack versus Norrby IF's defence, projects 0.67 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (3/3 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 16.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (16.0%), 1-1 (13.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 46% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Norrby IF Win
47%
2.11
37%
2.72
16%
6.29
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
18.3%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.4%
Draw
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.27
Norrby IF xG
Total xG
1.94
0.67
Landskrona BoIS xG
2.11
47%
Home win
2.72
37%
Draw
6.29
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
58%
Over 1.5
1.72
42%
Under 1.5
2.38
31%
Over 2.5
3.23
69%
Under 2.5
1.45
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.58
61%
BTTS No
1.63
Clean Sheet
51%
1.95
28%
3.57
Win to Nil
24%
4.12
4%
22.45
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.4 | 9.6 | 3.2 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 18.3 | 12.2 | 4.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.6 | 7.8 | 2.6 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 4.9 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Norrby IF vs Landskrona BoIS?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.7%.
How many goals are Norrby IF and Landskrona BoIS expected to score?
The model projects 1.27 expected goals for Norrby IF and 0.67 for Landskrona BoIS, a combined total of 1.94.
How confident is the prediction model for Norrby IF vs Landskrona BoIS?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Norrby IF
Pre-Season
Landskrona BoIS
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
5 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to May 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. The two were last together as recently as 12 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
Norrby IF's record when hosting Landskrona BoIS specifically: 0W 2D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 5 Meetings
0
Norrby IF
3
Draws
2
Landskrona BoIS
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Norrby IF and Landskrona BoIS?
From 5 meetings on record, Norrby IF have won 0, Landskrona BoIS have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Norrby IF and Landskrona BoIS last play each other?
They last met on 12 May 2026, when Landskrona BoIS 1-1 Norrby IF.
Who has won more matches between Norrby IF and Landskrona BoIS?
Landskrona BoIS have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 5 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Norrby IF home games / Landskrona BoIS away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Norrby IF and Landskrona BoIS share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Borås Arena, Regular Season - 4, as Norrby IF and Landskrona BoIS drew 1-1 in the Superettan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Norrby IF 1.27 xG and Landskrona BoIS 0.67 xG, a combined 1.94. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Norrby IF attack 1.06 / defence 1.05 against Landskrona BoIS attack 0.89 / defence 1.10, drawn from 3/3 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Norrby IF 47% | Draw 37% | Landskrona BoIS 16%, with Norrby IF to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 37%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 31%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 61% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.