Norrby IF 0-3 IF Brommapojkarna – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Norrby IF at 48%, yet in-form IF Brommapojkarna provide a compelling counter-argument — this Norrby IF vs IF Brommapojkarna fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
IF Brommapojkarna make the trip to Borås Arena to face Norrby IF in Superettan, Regular Season - 27. The match kicks off on Saturday 15 October 2022 at 12:00 UTC.
Form
Norrby IF (all games): 2W 4D 4L across 10 Superettan fixtures this term — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D W L D L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Norrby IF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Norrby IF's home record at Borås Arena: 4W 4D 2L from 10 Superettan appearances (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Norrby IF are significantly better at Borås Arena than their overall form suggests.
IF Brommapojkarna's overall Superettan record this term: 8W 0D 2L from 10 games (2.40 PPG). Last five: W W W L L. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.00. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for IF Brommapojkarna, so this record blends games from this season and last.
IF Brommapojkarna's form when playing away from home: 5W 2D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.70 is notably below their overall 2.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On a straight form reading, IF Brommapojkarna are the stronger side — 1.40 PPG clear of the hosts (2.40 vs 1.00). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Norrby IF 0W, IF Brommapojkarna 1W, 0D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 7.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 24 Jul 2022, ended 2–5 with IF Brommapojkarna winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 7.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Norrby IF goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (26 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 31% of games (home games).
IF Brommapojkarna goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (26 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 92% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Norrby IF 58% and IF Brommapojkarna 69% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Norrby IF 50% | IF Brommapojkarna 65%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Norrby IF 1.56 xG and IF Brommapojkarna 1.07 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Norrby IF attack 0.933 / defence 0.815 | IF Brommapojkarna attack 1.003 / defence 1.170. League average goals — home 1.426 / away 1.307. Data: 56 Norrby IF games / 26 IF Brommapojkarna games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Norrby IF 48% | Draw 27% | IF Brommapojkarna 25%. Fair-value odds: Norrby IF 2.08 | Draw 3.70 | IF Brommapojkarna 4.00. Norrby IF hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.63. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.63 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Norrby IF as the most likely outcome at 48% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form IF Brommapojkarna (2.40 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Norrby IF if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.63 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 49% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Norrby IF 50% | IF Brommapojkarna 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Norrby IF vs IF Brommapojkarna | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Borås Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 15 Oct 2022, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Norrby IF 48% | Draw 27% | IF Brommapojkarna 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 53% | xG Norrby IF 1.56 / IF Brommapojkarna 1.07 • Poisson strength factors: Norrby IF attack 0.933 / def 0.815 | IF Brommapojkarna attack 1.003 / def 1.170 | league avg home 1.426 / away 1.307 • Poisson stance: Norrby IF (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.56
Norrby IF xG
Expected Goals
1.07
IF Brommapojkarna xG
53%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Norrby IF vs IF Brommapojkarna kick off?
Norrby IF vs IF Brommapojkarna kicked off at 12:00 on Saturday 15 October 2022 at Borås Arena.
What was the final score in Norrby IF vs IF Brommapojkarna?
Norrby IF 0 - 3 IF Brommapojkarna.
Where is Norrby IF vs IF Brommapojkarna being played?
The match is being played at Borås Arena.
What competition is Norrby IF vs IF Brommapojkarna part of?
Norrby IF vs IF Brommapojkarna is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Norrby IF vs IF Brommapojkarna?
Our statistical model gives Norrby IF a 48% chance of winning, IF Brommapojkarna a 25% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Norrby IF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Norrby IF vs IF Brommapojkarna?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Norrby IF and IF Brommapojkarna will score (BTTS).
Will Norrby IF vs IF Brommapojkarna have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Norrby IF and IF Brommapojkarna?
Record (1 meetings): Norrby IF 0W | Draws 0 | IF Brommapojkarna 1W.
What form are Norrby IF and IF Brommapojkarna in?
Norrby IF (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-W-L-D-L. IF Brommapojkarna (all comps): 8W-0D-2L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Norrby IF's attacking strength (0.93x league average) is weighed against IF Brommapojkarna's defensive record (1.17x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.56. Flip it around — IF Brommapojkarna's attack (1.00x) against Norrby IF's defence (0.81x) — and the away total comes out at 1.07.
These ratings are built from 56/26 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.6%. Close behind: 1-0 (9.7%), 2-1 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Norrby IF Win
48%
2.09
27%
3.72
25%
3.96
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.3%
Home win
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.56
Norrby IF xG
Total xG
2.63
1.07
IF Brommapojkarna xG
2.09
48%
Home win
3.72
27%
Draw
3.96
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.90
47%
BTTS No
2.11
Clean Sheet
34%
2.91
21%
4.74
Win to Nil
16%
6.09
5%
18.77
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.2 | 7.7 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.3 | 12.0 | 6.4 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.8 | 9.4 | 5.0 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.6 | 4.9 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Norrby IF vs IF Brommapojkarna?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Norrby IF and IF Brommapojkarna expected to score?
The model projects 1.56 expected goals for Norrby IF and 1.07 for IF Brommapojkarna, a combined total of 2.63.
How confident is the prediction model for Norrby IF vs IF Brommapojkarna?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Norrby IF's recent record stands at 7W 7D 12L from 26 games, a 1.08 PPG return, with D-W-L-D-L in the last five. The sample for Norrby IF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
IF Brommapojkarna, meanwhile, have gone 15W 5D 6L across 26 games — 1.92 PPG, with W-W-W-L-L in their last five. The sample for IF Brommapojkarna is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours IF Brommapojkarna by 0.84 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Norrby IF heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Norrby IF have managed 5W 5D 3L from 13 games — 1.54 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.08 PPG overall — Norrby IF are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
IF Brommapojkarna's away record stands at 5W 3D 5L across 13 trips, a 1.38 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.92 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of IF Brommapojkarna's season.
Attack vs Defence
Norrby IF are averaging 1.15 goals scored and 1.58 conceded per game recently; IF Brommapojkarna are on 2.04 scored and 1.38 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: IF Brommapojkarna in 69%.
Last 26 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Norrby IF
Blended
IF Brommapojkarna
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Norrby IF and IF Brommapojkarna in coming into this match?
Norrby IF have gone 7W 7D 12L in their last 26 games (1.08 PPG), while IF Brommapojkarna have gone 15W 5D 6L in their last 26 (1.92 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Norrby IF at home or IF Brommapojkarna away?
Norrby IF's home record (1.54 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Norrby IF at home: 1.54 PPG; IF Brommapojkarna away: 1.38 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to July 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. It has been a while since the last meeting — 15 October 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Norrby IF
0
Draws
2
IF Brommapojkarna
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Norrby IF and IF Brommapojkarna?
From 2 meetings on record, Norrby IF have won 0, IF Brommapojkarna have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Norrby IF and IF Brommapojkarna last play each other?
They last met on 15 October 2022, when Norrby IF 0-3 IF Brommapojkarna.
Who has won more matches between Norrby IF and IF Brommapojkarna?
IF Brommapojkarna have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Norrby IF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
IF Brommapojkarna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 92% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Norrby IF 38%, IF Brommapojkarna 69% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 31% (Norrby IF) and 54% (IF Brommapojkarna).
On the defensive side: Norrby IF keep a clean sheet in 46% of their matches; Norrby IF have failed to score in 31% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Norrby IF home games / IF Brommapojkarna away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Norrby IF play IF Brommapojkarna?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of Norrby IF's recent matches and 69% of IF Brommapojkarna's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Norrby IF vs IF Brommapojkarna usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 31% of Norrby IF's recent games and 54% of IF Brommapojkarna's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Norrby IF and IF Brommapojkarna tend to score early?
Norrby IF have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, IF Brommapojkarna in 92% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant IF Brommapojkarna run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Norrby IF.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
IF Brommapojkarna beat Norrby IF 0-3 at Borås Arena, Regular Season - 27, in the Superettan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Norrby IF 1.56 xG and IF Brommapojkarna 1.07 xG, a combined 2.63. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Norrby IF fell 1.6 short of their projected output. IF Brommapojkarna outscored their 1.07 projection by 1.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Norrby IF attack 0.93 / defence 0.81 against IF Brommapojkarna attack 1.00 / defence 1.17, drawn from 56/26 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Norrby IF 48% | Draw 27% | IF Brommapojkarna 25%, with Norrby IF to win its most likely call at 48%. Instead the game produced a IF Brommapojkarna win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Norrby IF 50%, IF Brommapojkarna 65%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Norrby IF's trading profile (26 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
IF Brommapojkarna's trading profile (26 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, IF Brommapojkarna arrived the stronger side — 1.92 PPG against 1.08. Form held, and they took the win. Norrby IF (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.15 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 0.92 concession average — a leakier day than usual. IF Brommapojkarna (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.54 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.77 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.