Norrby IF 0-1 Akropolis – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Norrby IF at 55% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Norrby IF vs Akropolis encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Norrby IF and Akropolis meet at Borås Arena in Superettan, Regular Season - 17. This fixture gets under way on Monday 23 August 2021 at 18:00 UTC.
Form
Norrby IF (all games): 6W 2D 2L across 10 Superettan fixtures this term — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W W D W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Norrby IF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Norrby IF have posted 5W 1D 1L at Borås Arena — 2.29 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.86 goals scored and 0.86 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 57% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Akropolis's overall Superettan record this term: 4W 1D 5L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: L D W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Akropolis, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Akropolis's away record: 1W 3D 4L from 8 road trips in Superettan this season (0.75 PPG). Away from home they average 0.88 goals scored and 1.75 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 62% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.75 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form favours the hosts. Norrby IF's 2.00 PPG return is 0.70 points per game ahead of Akropolis's 1.30 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Norrby IF, 0 for Akropolis and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 17 Jul 2021, ended 3–0 with Norrby IF winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Norrby IF goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (16 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games).
Akropolis goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (16 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Norrby IF 50% versus Akropolis 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Norrby IF 44% | Akropolis 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Norrby IF 1.77 xG and Akropolis 1.01 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Norrby IF attack 1.194 / defence 1.106 | Akropolis attack 0.878 / defence 1.293. League average goals — home 1.147 / away 1.041. Akropolis bring a strong defensive rating of 1.293 — this is suppressing Norrby IF's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 16 Norrby IF games / 16 Akropolis games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Norrby IF 55% | Draw 23% | Akropolis 21%. Fair-value odds: Norrby IF 1.82 | Draw 4.35 | Akropolis 4.76. The model has a clear lean to Norrby IF (55%) — a 34pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.78. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.78 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Norrby IF as the most likely outcome at 55% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.78 combined xG gives a 53% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 53%. Form rates corroborate: Norrby IF 57% | Akropolis 62% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Norrby IF vs Akropolis | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Borås Arena • Kick-off: Monday 23 Aug 2021, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Norrby IF 55% | Draw 23% | Akropolis 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 53% | xG Norrby IF 1.77 / Akropolis 1.01 • Poisson strength factors: Norrby IF attack 1.194 / def 1.106 | Akropolis attack 0.878 / def 1.293 | league avg home 1.147 / away 1.041 • Poisson stance: Norrby IF (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.77
Norrby IF xG
Expected Goals
1.01
Akropolis xG
53%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Norrby IF vs Akropolis kick off?
Norrby IF vs Akropolis kicked off at 18:00 on Monday 23 August 2021 at Borås Arena.
What was the final score in Norrby IF vs Akropolis?
Norrby IF 0 - 1 Akropolis.
Where is Norrby IF vs Akropolis being played?
The match is being played at Borås Arena.
What competition is Norrby IF vs Akropolis part of?
Norrby IF vs Akropolis is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Norrby IF vs Akropolis?
Our statistical model gives Norrby IF a 55% chance of winning, Akropolis a 21% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Norrby IF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Norrby IF vs Akropolis?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Norrby IF and Akropolis will score (BTTS).
Will Norrby IF vs Akropolis have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Norrby IF and Akropolis?
Record (1 meetings): Norrby IF 1W | Draws 0 | Akropolis 0W.
What form are Norrby IF and Akropolis in?
Norrby IF (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-D-W-L. Akropolis (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-D-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Norrby IF's attack rating (1.19) and Akropolis's defence rating (1.29), the model arrives at 1.77 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Akropolis's attack (0.88x) against Norrby IF's defence (1.11x) — and the away total comes out at 1.01.
These ratings are built from 16/16 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.5%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Norrby IF Win
55%
1.81
23%
4.28
21%
4.66
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.0%
Home win
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.77
Norrby IF xG
Total xG
2.78
1.01
Akropolis xG
1.81
55%
Home win
4.28
23%
Draw
4.66
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.90
47%
BTTS No
2.12
Clean Sheet
36%
2.75
17%
5.87
Win to Nil
20%
4.97
4%
27.38
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.2 | 6.3 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.0 | 11.1 | 5.6 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.7 | 9.8 | 5.0 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.7 | 5.8 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.5 | 2.6 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Norrby IF vs Akropolis?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.5%.
How many goals are Norrby IF and Akropolis expected to score?
The model projects 1.77 expected goals for Norrby IF and 1.01 for Akropolis, a combined total of 2.78.
How confident is the prediction model for Norrby IF vs Akropolis?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Norrby IF come into this having played 16 games, going 9W 3D 4L for 1.88 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-D-W-L. The sample for Norrby IF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Akropolis sit at 1.06 PPG from 16 outings (4W 5D 7L), a run that reads L-D-W-W-L across their last five. The sample for Akropolis is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Norrby IF carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.82 PPG clear of Akropolis — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Norrby IF's home form reads 5W 1D 1L across 7 games on their own ground, a 2.29 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.88 PPG overall — Norrby IF are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Akropolis have taken 0.86 points per game from 7 outings (1W 3D 3L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Norrby IF come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Norrby IF are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Akropolis are on 0.88 scored and 1.56 conceded.
Defensively: Norrby IF have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 16 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Norrby IF
Blended
Akropolis
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Norrby IF and Akropolis in coming into this match?
Norrby IF have gone 9W 3D 4L in their last 16 games (1.88 PPG), while Akropolis have gone 4W 5D 7L in their last 16 (1.06 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Norrby IF at home or Akropolis away?
Norrby IF's home record (2.29 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Norrby IF at home: 2.29 PPG; Akropolis away: 0.86 PPG.
Have Norrby IF or Akropolis been keeping clean sheets recently?
Norrby IF have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Akropolis in 12%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to July 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. It has been a while since the last meeting — 23 August 2021, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Norrby IF
0
Draws
1
Akropolis
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Norrby IF and Akropolis?
From 2 meetings on record, Norrby IF have won 1, Akropolis have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Norrby IF and Akropolis last play each other?
They last met on 23 August 2021, when Norrby IF 0-1 Akropolis.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Norrby IF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 57% of the time.
Akropolis are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 29% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Norrby IF 57%, Akropolis 71% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Norrby IF) and 29% (Akropolis).
On the defensive side: Akropolis in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Norrby IF home games / Akropolis away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Norrby IF play Akropolis?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of Norrby IF's games and 71% of Akropolis's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Norrby IF vs Akropolis usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Norrby IF's recent games and 29% of Akropolis's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Norrby IF and Akropolis tend to score early?
Norrby IF have had a goal before half-time in 86% of their recent matches, Akropolis in 86% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Akropolis defy the odds to beat Norrby IF 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Akropolis beat Norrby IF 0-1 at Borås Arena, Regular Season - 17, in the Superettan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Norrby IF 1.77 xG and Akropolis 1.01 xG, a combined 2.78. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Norrby IF fell 1.8 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Norrby IF attack 1.19 / defence 1.11 against Akropolis attack 0.88 / defence 1.29, drawn from 16/16 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Norrby IF 55% | Draw 23% | Akropolis 21%, with Norrby IF to win its most likely call at 55%. Instead the game produced a Akropolis win, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 77% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Norrby IF 44%, Akropolis 38%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Norrby IF's trading profile (16 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Akropolis's trading profile (16 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Norrby IF arrived the stronger side — 1.88 PPG against 1.06. Form was overturned, with Akropolis winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Norrby IF (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.86 scoring average — below par going forward. Akropolis (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.57 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.