Landskrona BoIS 2-1 Trelleborg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Landskrona BoIS at 39%, yet in-form Trelleborg provide a compelling counter-argument — this Landskrona BoIS vs Trelleborg fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Superettan encounter, Regular Season - 21 sees Trelleborg travel to Landskrona Idrottsplats to take on Landskrona BoIS. The game is scheduled for Saturday 27 August 2022, 12:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Landskrona BoIS stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Superettan matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L L L D D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Landskrona BoIS, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Landskrona BoIS have posted 4W 4D 2L at Landskrona Idrottsplats — 1.60 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Trelleborg — All Games: 5W 3D 2L from 10 Superettan fixtures this season — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W L D D W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.80. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Trelleborg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Trelleborg away from home this season: 4W 3D 3L from 10 away games — 1.50 PPG on the road. They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Form points away from home here. Trelleborg's 1.80 PPG return is 0.60 points per game ahead of Landskrona BoIS's 1.20 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Landskrona BoIS, 0 for Trelleborg and 2 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 3 meetings have averaged 4.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 28 May 2022, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Landskrona BoIS in-play tendencies (50 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games).
Trelleborg in-play tendencies (50 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Landskrona BoIS 62% and Trelleborg 66% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Landskrona BoIS 48% | Trelleborg 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Landskrona BoIS 1.68 xG and Trelleborg 1.62 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Landskrona BoIS attack 1.002 / defence 0.993 | Trelleborg attack 1.187 / defence 1.204. League average goals — home 1.394 / away 1.372. Trelleborg bring a strong defensive rating of 1.204 — this is suppressing Landskrona BoIS's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 50 Landskrona BoIS games / 50 Trelleborg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Landskrona BoIS 39% | Draw 25% | Trelleborg 36%. Fair-value odds: Landskrona BoIS 2.56 | Draw 4.00 | Trelleborg 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS probability 66% | Total xG 3.30. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.30 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 66% reflects that both xG figures (1.68 / 1.62) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Landskrona BoIS as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Trelleborg (1.80 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Landskrona BoIS offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.30 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 64% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.0 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 66% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Landskrona BoIS 90% | Trelleborg 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Landskrona BoIS vs Trelleborg | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Landskrona Idrottsplats • Kick-off: Saturday 27 Aug 2022, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Landskrona BoIS 39% | Draw 25% | Trelleborg 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% | BTTS 66% | xG Landskrona BoIS 1.68 / Trelleborg 1.62 • Poisson strength factors: Landskrona BoIS attack 1.002 / def 0.993 | Trelleborg attack 1.187 / def 1.204 | league avg home 1.394 / away 1.372 • Poisson stance: Landskrona BoIS (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.68
Landskrona BoIS xG
Expected Goals
1.62
Trelleborg xG
66%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
42%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Landskrona BoIS vs Trelleborg kick off?
Landskrona BoIS vs Trelleborg kicked off at 12:00 on Saturday 27 August 2022 at Landskrona Idrottsplats.
What was the final score in Landskrona BoIS vs Trelleborg?
Landskrona BoIS 2 - 1 Trelleborg.
Where is Landskrona BoIS vs Trelleborg being played?
The match is being played at Landskrona Idrottsplats.
What competition is Landskrona BoIS vs Trelleborg part of?
Landskrona BoIS vs Trelleborg is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Landskrona BoIS vs Trelleborg?
Our statistical model gives Landskrona BoIS a 39% chance of winning, Trelleborg a 36% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Landskrona BoIS the favourite.
Will both teams score in Landskrona BoIS vs Trelleborg?
Our model estimates a 66% probability that both Landskrona BoIS and Trelleborg will score (BTTS).
Will Landskrona BoIS vs Trelleborg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%.
What is the head-to-head record between Landskrona BoIS and Trelleborg?
Record (3 meetings): Landskrona BoIS 1W | Draws 2 | Trelleborg 0W.
What form are Landskrona BoIS and Trelleborg in?
Landskrona BoIS (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-L-D-D. Trelleborg (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-L-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Landskrona BoIS's attacking strength (1.00x league average) is weighed against Trelleborg's defensive record (1.20x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.68. The same calculation in reverse, Trelleborg's attack versus Landskrona BoIS's defence, projects 1.62 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 50/50 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.4%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.4%), 1-2 (8.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Landskrona BoIS Win
39%
2.58
25%
3.96
36%
2.77
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.0%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.4%
Home win
1 – 2
8.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.68
Landskrona BoIS xG
Total xG
3.30
1.62
Trelleborg xG
2.58
39%
Home win
3.96
25%
Draw
2.77
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
42%
Over 3.5
2.38
58%
Under 3.5
1.72
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
66%
BTTS Yes
1.51
34%
BTTS No
2.97
Clean Sheet
20%
5.04
19%
5.37
Win to Nil
8%
13.01
7%
14.90
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.7 | 6.0 | 4.8 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 6.2 | 10.0 | 8.1 | 4.4 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 5.2 | 8.4 | 6.8 | 3.7 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 4.7 | 3.8 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 2.0 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Landskrona BoIS vs Trelleborg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.4%.
How many goals are Landskrona BoIS and Trelleborg expected to score?
The model projects 1.68 expected goals for Landskrona BoIS and 1.62 for Trelleborg, a combined total of 3.30.
How confident is the prediction model for Landskrona BoIS vs Trelleborg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Landskrona BoIS come into this having played 50 games, going 18W 13D 19L for 1.34 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-D-D. The sample for Landskrona BoIS is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Trelleborg sit at 1.52 PPG from 50 outings (20W 16D 14L), a run that reads W-L-D-D-W across their last five. The sample for Trelleborg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Landskrona BoIS on 1.34 PPG, Trelleborg on 1.52. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Landskrona BoIS's home form reads 14W 6D 4L across 24 games on their own ground, a 2.00 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.34 PPG overall — Landskrona BoIS are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Trelleborg have taken 1.25 points per game from 24 outings (7W 9D 8L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Landskrona BoIS come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Landskrona BoIS are averaging 1.32 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game recently; Trelleborg are on 1.54 scored and 1.44 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Landskrona BoIS have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games; Trelleborg in 66%.
Last 50 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Landskrona BoIS
Blended
Trelleborg
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Landskrona BoIS and Trelleborg in coming into this match?
Landskrona BoIS have gone 18W 13D 19L in their last 50 games (1.34 PPG), while Trelleborg have gone 20W 16D 14L in their last 50 (1.52 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Landskrona BoIS at home or Trelleborg away?
Landskrona BoIS's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Landskrona BoIS at home: 2.00 PPG; Trelleborg away: 1.25 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Landskrona BoIS and Trelleborg runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to July 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. They last met on 25 August 2025, roughly 11 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Trelleborg have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 30 Jul 2023, when Landskrona BoIS won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Landskrona BoIS's record when hosting Trelleborg specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Landskrona BoIS
3
Draws
2
Trelleborg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Landskrona BoIS and Trelleborg?
From 10 meetings on record, Landskrona BoIS have won 5, Trelleborg have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Landskrona BoIS and Trelleborg last play each other?
They last met on 25 August 2025, when Trelleborg 1-0 Landskrona BoIS.
Who has won more matches between Landskrona BoIS and Trelleborg?
Landskrona BoIS have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Landskrona BoIS are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time.
Trelleborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Landskrona BoIS at 67%, Trelleborg at 67%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Landskrona BoIS) and 50% (Trelleborg).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Landskrona BoIS home games / Trelleborg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Landskrona BoIS play Trelleborg?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Landskrona BoIS's games and 67% of Trelleborg's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Landskrona BoIS vs Trelleborg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Landskrona BoIS's recent games and 50% of Trelleborg's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Landskrona BoIS and Trelleborg tend to score early?
Landskrona BoIS have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Trelleborg in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Landskrona BoIS edge out Trelleborg 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Landskrona BoIS beat Trelleborg 2-1 at Landskrona Idrottsplats, Regular Season - 21, in the Superettan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Landskrona BoIS 1.68 xG and Trelleborg 1.62 xG, a combined 3.30. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Landskrona BoIS attack 1.00 / defence 0.99 against Trelleborg attack 1.19 / defence 1.20, drawn from 50/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Landskrona BoIS 39% | Draw 25% | Trelleborg 36%, with Landskrona BoIS to win its most likely call at 39%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 42% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Landskrona BoIS 48%, Trelleborg 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Landskrona BoIS's trading profile (50 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Trelleborg's trading profile (50 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Landskrona BoIS 1.34 PPG, Trelleborg 1.52 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Landskrona BoIS win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.