Landskrona BoIS 3-2 Sandviken – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Landskrona BoIS at 40% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Landskrona BoIS vs Sandviken encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Landskrona BoIS host Sandviken at Landskrona IP in Superettan, Regular Season - 26. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 10 October 2026 at 11:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Superettan games this season, Landskrona BoIS have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.50 PPG return. Last five: D W L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Landskrona BoIS, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Landskrona IP, Landskrona BoIS have gone 3W 5D 2L this season (10 games, 1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Sandviken stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 Superettan matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D W L D W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.20. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Sandviken, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sandviken's away record: 3W 3D 4L from 10 road trips in Superettan this season (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.50 PPG (Landskrona BoIS) versus 1.50 (Sandviken). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
Landskrona BoIS hold a clear advantage in this fixture, picking up 4 wins from 5 previous encounters compared to 1 for Sandviken, with 0 draws in between.
The last 5 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.8 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 24 May 2026, ended 1–0 with Landskrona BoIS winning.
The historical record gives Landskrona BoIS a meaningful edge here — 4 wins from 5 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
In-Play Data
Landskrona BoIS trading profile (55 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games).
Sandviken trading profile (55 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Landskrona BoIS 60% versus Sandviken 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Landskrona BoIS 54% | Sandviken 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Landskrona BoIS 1.27 xG and Sandviken 1.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Landskrona BoIS attack 1.057 / defence 0.873 | Sandviken attack 0.849 / defence 0.917. League average goals — home 1.310 / away 1.387. Data: 55 Landskrona BoIS games / 55 Sandviken games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Landskrona BoIS 40% | Draw 31% | Sandviken 28%. Fair-value odds: Landskrona BoIS 2.50 | Draw 3.23 | Sandviken 3.57. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.30. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.30 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Landskrona BoIS at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Landskrona BoIS offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.30 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 40% — reasonable confidence, supported by H2H averaging 1.8 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 48% on No. Form rates are neutral: Landskrona BoIS 60% | Sandviken 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Landskrona BoIS vs Sandviken | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Landskrona IP • Kick-off: Saturday 10 Oct 2026, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Landskrona BoIS 40% | Draw 31% | Sandviken 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 48% | xG Landskrona BoIS 1.27 / Sandviken 1.03 • Poisson strength factors: Landskrona BoIS attack 1.057 / def 0.873 | Sandviken attack 0.849 / def 0.917 | league avg home 1.310 / away 1.387 • Poisson stance: Landskrona BoIS (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.27
Landskrona BoIS xG
Expected Goals
1.03
Sandviken xG
48%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Landskrona BoIS vs Sandviken kick off?
Landskrona BoIS vs Sandviken kicked off at 11:00 on Saturday 10 October 2026 at Landskrona IP.
What was the final score in Landskrona BoIS vs Sandviken?
Landskrona BoIS 3 - 2 Sandviken.
Where is Landskrona BoIS vs Sandviken being played?
The match is being played at Landskrona IP.
What competition is Landskrona BoIS vs Sandviken part of?
Landskrona BoIS vs Sandviken is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Landskrona BoIS vs Sandviken?
Our statistical model gives Landskrona BoIS a 40% chance of winning, Sandviken a 28% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Landskrona BoIS the favourite.
Will both teams score in Landskrona BoIS vs Sandviken?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Landskrona BoIS and Sandviken will score (BTTS).
Will Landskrona BoIS vs Sandviken have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Landskrona BoIS and Sandviken?
Record (5 meetings): Landskrona BoIS 4W | Draws 0 | Sandviken 1W.
What form are Landskrona BoIS and Sandviken in?
Landskrona BoIS (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W-L-W-W. Sandviken (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-W-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Landskrona BoIS's attack rating (1.06) and Sandviken's defence rating (0.92), the model arrives at 1.27 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Sandviken's attack versus Landskrona BoIS's defence, projects 1.03 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 55/55 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.8%), 1-0 (11.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Landskrona BoIS Win
40%
2.48
31%
3.20
28%
3.52
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.8%
Home win
0 – 1
10.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.27
Landskrona BoIS xG
Total xG
2.30
1.03
Sandviken xG
2.48
40%
Home win
3.20
31%
Draw
3.52
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.09
52%
BTTS No
1.91
Clean Sheet
36%
2.80
28%
3.56
Win to Nil
14%
6.93
8%
12.53
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.0 | 10.3 | 5.3 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.8 | 13.1 | 6.7 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.1 | 8.3 | 4.3 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 3.5 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Landskrona BoIS vs Sandviken?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Landskrona BoIS and Sandviken expected to score?
The model projects 1.27 expected goals for Landskrona BoIS and 1.03 for Sandviken, a combined total of 2.30.
How confident is the prediction model for Landskrona BoIS vs Sandviken?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Landskrona BoIS come into this having played 55 games, going 22W 15D 18L for 1.47 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-L-W-W. The sample for Landskrona BoIS is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Sandviken sit at 1.36 PPG from 55 outings (21W 12D 22L), a run that reads D-W-L-D-W across their last five. The sample for Sandviken is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Landskrona BoIS on 1.47 PPG, Sandviken on 1.36. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Landskrona BoIS's home form reads 10W 10D 7L across 27 games on their own ground, a 1.48 PPG return.
Away from home, Sandviken have taken 1.15 points per game from 27 outings (8W 7D 12L).
The Goals Picture
Landskrona BoIS are averaging 1.42 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; Sandviken are on 1.40 scored and 1.49 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Landskrona BoIS have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Last 55 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Landskrona BoIS
Blended
Sandviken
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Landskrona BoIS and Sandviken in coming into this match?
Landskrona BoIS have gone 22W 15D 18L in their last 55 games (1.47 PPG), while Sandviken have gone 21W 12D 22L in their last 55 (1.36 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Landskrona BoIS at home or Sandviken away?
Landskrona BoIS's home record (1.48 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Landskrona BoIS at home: 1.48 PPG; Sandviken away: 1.15 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Landskrona BoIS and Sandviken runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to March 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. The two were last together as recently as 10 October 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
Landskrona BoIS go into this on the back of 4 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 31 Mar 2024, when Landskrona BoIS won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Landskrona BoIS's record when hosting Sandviken specifically: 3W 0D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
5
Landskrona BoIS
0
Draws
1
Sandviken
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Landskrona BoIS and Sandviken?
From 6 meetings on record, Landskrona BoIS have won 5, Sandviken have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Landskrona BoIS and Sandviken last play each other?
They last met on 10 October 2026, when Landskrona BoIS 3-2 Sandviken.
Who has won more matches between Landskrona BoIS and Sandviken?
Landskrona BoIS have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Landskrona BoIS are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Sandviken are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Landskrona BoIS 63%, Sandviken 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Landskrona BoIS) and 59% (Sandviken). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 26% and 22% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Sandviken in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Landskrona BoIS home games / Sandviken away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Landskrona BoIS play Sandviken?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 63% of Landskrona BoIS's games and 52% of Sandviken's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Landskrona BoIS vs Sandviken usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 56% of Landskrona BoIS's matches and 59% of Sandviken's.
Do Landskrona BoIS and Sandviken tend to score early?
Landskrona BoIS have had a goal before half-time in 82% of their recent matches, Sandviken in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Landskrona BoIS edge out Sandviken 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Landskrona BoIS beat Sandviken 3-2 at Landskrona IP, Regular Season - 26, in the Superettan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Landskrona BoIS 1.27 xG and Sandviken 1.03 xG, a combined 2.30. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Landskrona BoIS beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Sandviken outscored their 1.03 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Landskrona BoIS attack 1.06 / defence 0.87 against Sandviken attack 0.85 / defence 0.92, drawn from 55/55 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Landskrona BoIS 40% | Draw 31% | Sandviken 28%, with Landskrona BoIS to win its most likely call at 40%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. Over 3.5 was 20% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Landskrona BoIS 54%, Sandviken 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Landskrona BoIS's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Sandviken's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Landskrona BoIS 1.47 PPG, Sandviken 1.36 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Landskrona BoIS win broke the near-deadlock. Landskrona BoIS (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.41 average — above their attacking norm. Sandviken (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.59 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.