Landskrona BoIS 1-4 Osters IF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Landskrona BoIS at 48%, yet in-form Osters IF provide a compelling counter-argument — this Landskrona BoIS vs Osters IF fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Osters IF make the trip to Landskrona Idrottsplats to face Landskrona BoIS in Superettan, Regular Season - 27. The match kicks off on Tuesday 2 November 2021 at 18:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Landskrona BoIS have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 Superettan outings this season: 3W 1D 6L. Last five: W L D W L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Landskrona BoIS, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Landskrona BoIS have posted 8W 1D 1L at Landskrona Idrottsplats — 2.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 2.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Landskrona BoIS are significantly better at Landskrona Idrottsplats than their overall form suggests.
Osters IF's overall Superettan record this term: 4W 5D 1L from 10 games (1.70 PPG). Last five: W D D W D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Osters IF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Osters IF have gone 1W 4D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Osters IF are 0.70 PPG clear of Landskrona BoIS in recent Superettan fixtures (1.70 vs 1.00). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Landskrona BoIS, 0 for Osters IF and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 18 Apr 2021, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Landskrona BoIS goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (26 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 31% of games (home games).
Osters IF goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (26 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 31% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 31% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 23% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time; they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Landskrona BoIS 54% versus Osters IF 38%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Landskrona BoIS 42% | Osters IF 27%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Landskrona BoIS 1.18 xG and Osters IF 0.66 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Landskrona BoIS attack 1.070 / defence 0.820 | Osters IF attack 0.670 / defence 1.001. League average goals — home 1.104 / away 1.195. Data: 26 Landskrona BoIS games / 26 Osters IF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Landskrona BoIS 48% | Draw 31% | Osters IF 20%. Fair-value odds: Landskrona BoIS 2.08 | Draw 3.23 | Osters IF 5.00. Landskrona BoIS hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 28% | BTTS probability 34% | Total xG 1.84. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 72% probability — total xG of 1.84 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 66% — Osters IF's lower xG of 0.66 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 34%.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Landskrona BoIS as the most likely outcome at 48% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Osters IF (1.70 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Landskrona BoIS if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.84 combined xG gives a 28% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 34%. Form rates corroborate: Landskrona BoIS 50% | Osters IF 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Landskrona BoIS vs Osters IF | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Landskrona Idrottsplats • Kick-off: Tuesday 2 Nov 2021, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Landskrona BoIS 48% | Draw 31% | Osters IF 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 28% | BTTS 34% | xG Landskrona BoIS 1.18 / Osters IF 0.66 • Poisson strength factors: Landskrona BoIS attack 1.070 / def 0.820 | Osters IF attack 0.670 / def 1.001 | league avg home 1.104 / away 1.195 • Poisson stance: Landskrona BoIS (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.18
Landskrona BoIS xG
Expected Goals
0.66
Osters IF xG
34%
BTTS
55%
Over 1.5
28%
Over 2.5
12%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Landskrona BoIS vs Osters IF kick off?
Landskrona BoIS vs Osters IF kicked off at 18:00 on Tuesday 2 November 2021 at Landskrona Idrottsplats.
What was the final score in Landskrona BoIS vs Osters IF?
Landskrona BoIS 1 - 4 Osters IF.
Where is Landskrona BoIS vs Osters IF being played?
The match is being played at Landskrona Idrottsplats.
What competition is Landskrona BoIS vs Osters IF part of?
Landskrona BoIS vs Osters IF is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Landskrona BoIS vs Osters IF?
Our statistical model gives Landskrona BoIS a 48% chance of winning, Osters IF a 20% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Landskrona BoIS the favourite.
Will both teams score in Landskrona BoIS vs Osters IF?
Our model estimates a 34% probability that both Landskrona BoIS and Osters IF will score (BTTS).
Will Landskrona BoIS vs Osters IF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 28%.
What is the head-to-head record between Landskrona BoIS and Osters IF?
Record (1 meetings): Landskrona BoIS 0W | Draws 1 | Osters IF 0W.
What form are Landskrona BoIS and Osters IF in?
Landskrona BoIS (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-D-W-L. Osters IF (all comps): 4W-5D-1L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-D-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Landskrona BoIS's attack at 1.07x the league average against Osters IF's defence at 1.00x — combine the two and it projects 1.18 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Osters IF's attack (0.67x) against Landskrona BoIS's defence (0.82x) — and the away total comes out at 0.66.
These ratings are built from 26/26 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 17.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (17.2%), 1-1 (13.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 49% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Landskrona BoIS Win
48%
2.06
31%
3.20
20%
4.92
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
18.8%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
15.9%
Draw
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.18
Landskrona BoIS xG
Total xG
1.84
0.66
Osters IF xG
2.06
48%
Home win
3.20
31%
Draw
4.92
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
55%
Over 1.5
1.82
45%
Under 1.5
2.22
28%
Over 2.5
3.57
72%
Under 2.5
1.39
11%
Over 3.5
9.09
89%
Under 3.5
1.12
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
34%
BTTS Yes
2.98
66%
BTTS No
1.51
Clean Sheet
52%
1.93
31%
3.26
Win to Nil
25%
3.98
6%
16.03
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 15.9 | 10.4 | 3.4 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 18.8 | 12.3 | 4.0 | 0.9 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 11.1 | 7.3 | 2.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 4.4 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Landskrona BoIS vs Osters IF?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.5%.
How many goals are Landskrona BoIS and Osters IF expected to score?
The model projects 1.18 expected goals for Landskrona BoIS and 0.66 for Osters IF, a combined total of 1.84.
How confident is the prediction model for Landskrona BoIS vs Osters IF?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 26 outings, Landskrona BoIS have picked up 1.58 PPG on a 12W 5D 9L record — W-L-D-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Landskrona BoIS is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Osters IF's form line: 9W 9D 8L from 26 games, 1.38 PPG, last five W-D-D-W-D. The sample for Osters IF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.58 PPG for Landskrona BoIS against 1.38 for Osters IF. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Landskrona BoIS have posted 2.46 PPG from 13 outings (10W 2D 1L). That's noticeably better than their 1.58 PPG overall — Landskrona BoIS are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Osters IF have gone 3W 4D 6L from 13 away games — 1.00 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Landskrona BoIS come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Landskrona BoIS are averaging 1.35 goals scored and 1.08 conceded per game recently; Osters IF are on 0.96 scored and 0.88 conceded.
Defensively: Osters IF in 42% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 26 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Landskrona BoIS
Blended
Osters IF
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Landskrona BoIS and Osters IF in coming into this match?
Landskrona BoIS have gone 12W 5D 9L in their last 26 games (1.58 PPG), while Osters IF have gone 9W 9D 8L in their last 26 (1.38 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Landskrona BoIS at home or Osters IF away?
Landskrona BoIS's home record (2.46 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Landskrona BoIS at home: 2.46 PPG; Osters IF away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Landskrona BoIS or Osters IF been keeping clean sheets recently?
Landskrona BoIS have kept a clean sheet in 27% of their recent games, Osters IF in 42%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since April 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. The two were last together as recently as 8 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Osters IF won 1-4 on 2 Nov 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Landskrona BoIS have gone 0W 3D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Osters IF — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Landskrona BoIS
5
Draws
4
Osters IF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Landskrona BoIS and Osters IF?
From 10 meetings on record, Landskrona BoIS have won 1, Osters IF have won 4, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Landskrona BoIS and Osters IF last play each other?
They last met on 8 August 2026, when Osters IF 0-1 Landskrona BoIS.
Who has won more matches between Landskrona BoIS and Osters IF?
Osters IF have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Landskrona BoIS are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time.
Osters IF see a goal before the break in 31% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Landskrona BoIS 46%, Osters IF 31% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 31% for Landskrona BoIS and 23% for Osters IF.
On the defensive side: Landskrona BoIS keep a clean sheet in 46% of their matches; Osters IF in 38%; Osters IF in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Landskrona BoIS home games / Osters IF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Landskrona BoIS play Osters IF?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Landskrona BoIS's recent matches and 31% of Osters IF's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Landskrona BoIS vs Osters IF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 31% of Landskrona BoIS's recent games and 23% of Osters IF's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Landskrona BoIS and Osters IF tend to score early?
Landskrona BoIS have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Osters IF in 31% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Osters IF run riot with a 1-4 hammering of Landskrona BoIS.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Osters IF beat Landskrona BoIS 1-4 at Landskrona Idrottsplats, Regular Season - 27, in the Superettan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Landskrona BoIS 1.18 xG and Osters IF 0.66 xG, a combined 1.84. The scoreboard read 1-4 for 5 actual goals. Osters IF outscored their 0.66 projection by 3.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Landskrona BoIS attack 1.07 / defence 0.82 against Osters IF attack 0.67 / defence 1.00, drawn from 26/26 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Landskrona BoIS 48% | Draw 31% | Osters IF 20%, with Landskrona BoIS to win its most likely call at 48%. Instead the game produced a Osters IF win, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 28%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 55% and landed. Over 3.5 was 12% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 34% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 35% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Landskrona BoIS 42%, Osters IF 27%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Landskrona BoIS's trading profile (26 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Osters IF's trading profile (26 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Landskrona BoIS 1.58 PPG, Osters IF 1.38 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Osters IF win broke the near-deadlock. Landskrona BoIS (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 0.62 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Osters IF (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 0.77 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.