Landskrona BoIS 1-1 Jonkopings Sodra – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Landskrona BoIS at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Landskrona BoIS vs Jonkopings Sodra fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Full Analysis

Landskrona Idrottsplats plays host to Landskrona BoIS versus Jonkopings Sodra in Superettan, Regular Season - 13. Kick-off: Friday 7 July 2023 at 18:00 UTC.

Current Form

Landskrona BoIS's overall Superettan record this term: 5W 2D 3L from 10 games (1.70 PPG). Last five: W L D W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Landskrona BoIS, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Landskrona BoIS's home record at Landskrona Idrottsplats: 7W 2D 1L from 10 Superettan appearances (2.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.70 — Landskrona BoIS are significantly better at Landskrona Idrottsplats than their overall form suggests.

Jonkopings Sodra have collected 1.80 PPG across 10 Superettan outings this season: 5W 3D 2L. Last five: W W L D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.30 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Jonkopings Sodra, so this record blends games from this season and last.

On the road, Jonkopings Sodra have gone 3W 6D 1L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.50 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

A near-identical PPG reading — 1.70 for Landskrona BoIS, 1.80 for Jonkopings Sodra — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.

In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Landskrona BoIS have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Jonkopings Sodra in 70%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.

Head-to-Head

Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 4 meetings: Landskrona BoIS 2W, Jonkopings Sodra 1W, 1D.

These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.5 per game across 4 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 20 Aug 2022, ended 1–1 with a draw.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

Trading

Landskrona BoIS half-time and goal-timing data (42 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).

Jonkopings Sodra half-time and goal-timing data (42 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 43%.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Landskrona BoIS 60% and Jonkopings Sodra 74% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Landskrona BoIS 48% | Jonkopings Sodra 64%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Landskrona BoIS 1.77 xG and Jonkopings Sodra 1.55 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Landskrona BoIS attack 1.031 / defence 1.064 | Jonkopings Sodra attack 1.322 / defence 1.170. League average goals — home 1.464 / away 1.104. Jonkopings Sodra have an above-average attack strength of 1.322 — the away xG of 1.55 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 42 Landskrona BoIS games / 42 Jonkopings Sodra games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Landskrona BoIS 43% | Draw 23% | Jonkopings Sodra 34%. Fair-value odds: Landskrona BoIS 2.33 | Draw 4.35 | Jonkopings Sodra 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 23% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS probability 65% | Total xG 3.32. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.32 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 65% reflects that both xG figures (1.77 / 1.55) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, Landskrona BoIS are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Landskrona BoIS if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

Poisson projects 3.32 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 64% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.5 goals per meeting.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 65% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Landskrona BoIS 60% | Jonkopings Sodra 70% BTTS from recent games.

The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.

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