Landskrona BoIS 0-1 Helsingborg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Helsingborg at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this Landskrona BoIS vs Helsingborg fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Superettan encounter, Regular Season - 18 sees Helsingborg travel to Landskrona Idrottsplats to take on Landskrona BoIS. The game is scheduled for Saturday 28 August 2021, 12:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Landskrona BoIS — All Games: 6W 1D 3L from 10 Superettan outings this season, averaging 1.90 points per game. Last five: W L L W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Landskrona BoIS, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Landskrona BoIS's form when playing at home: 7W 2D 0L across 9 games at Landskrona Idrottsplats this term (2.56 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.78 goals scored and 0.67 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 9 games (44%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 56% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.56 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.90 — Landskrona BoIS are significantly better at Landskrona Idrottsplats than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Helsingborg stand at 7W 1D 2L from 10 Superettan matches — 2.20 PPG. Last five: L W W W D. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 0.60. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Helsingborg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Helsingborg's form when playing away from home: 5W 3D 2L across 10 road games this term (1.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 6 away clean sheets from 10 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Landskrona BoIS at 1.90 PPG versus Helsingborg's 2.20. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Landskrona BoIS have won 0, Helsingborg 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 10 Aug 2021, ended 1–2 with Helsingborg winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Landskrona BoIS in-play and half-time data (17 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games).
Helsingborg in-play and half-time data (17 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 12% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 59% of the time; they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Landskrona BoIS 65% versus Helsingborg 24%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Landskrona BoIS 47% | Helsingborg 41%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Landskrona BoIS 1.01 xG and Helsingborg 1.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Landskrona BoIS attack 1.144 / defence 0.973 | Helsingborg attack 1.046 / defence 0.810. League average goals — home 1.096 / away 1.026. Data: 17 Landskrona BoIS games / 17 Helsingborg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Landskrona BoIS 34% | Draw 30% | Helsingborg 36%. Fair-value odds: Landskrona BoIS 2.94 | Draw 3.33 | Helsingborg 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 2.06. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.06 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Helsingborg at 36% — marginal model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Helsingborg offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.06 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 34% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 41% on No. Form rates corroborate: Landskrona BoIS 56% | Helsingborg 30% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Landskrona BoIS vs Helsingborg | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Landskrona Idrottsplats • Kick-off: Saturday 28 Aug 2021, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Landskrona BoIS 34% | Draw 30% | Helsingborg 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% | BTTS 41% | xG Landskrona BoIS 1.01 / Helsingborg 1.04 • Poisson strength factors: Landskrona BoIS attack 1.144 / def 0.973 | Helsingborg attack 1.046 / def 0.810 | league avg home 1.096 / away 1.026 • Poisson stance: Helsingborg (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.01
Landskrona BoIS xG
Expected Goals
1.04
Helsingborg xG
41%
BTTS
61%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Landskrona BoIS vs Helsingborg kick off?
Landskrona BoIS vs Helsingborg kicked off at 12:00 on Saturday 28 August 2021 at Landskrona Idrottsplats.
What was the final score in Landskrona BoIS vs Helsingborg?
Landskrona BoIS 0 - 1 Helsingborg.
Where is Landskrona BoIS vs Helsingborg being played?
The match is being played at Landskrona Idrottsplats.
What competition is Landskrona BoIS vs Helsingborg part of?
Landskrona BoIS vs Helsingborg is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Landskrona BoIS vs Helsingborg?
Our statistical model gives Landskrona BoIS a 34% chance of winning, Helsingborg a 36% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Helsingborg the favourite.
Will both teams score in Landskrona BoIS vs Helsingborg?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Landskrona BoIS and Helsingborg will score (BTTS).
Will Landskrona BoIS vs Helsingborg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%.
What is the head-to-head record between Landskrona BoIS and Helsingborg?
Record (1 meetings): Landskrona BoIS 0W | Draws 0 | Helsingborg 1W.
What form are Landskrona BoIS and Helsingborg in?
Landskrona BoIS (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-L-W-L. Helsingborg (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.60 | L5 L-W-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Landskrona BoIS's attacking strength (1.14x league average) is weighed against Helsingborg's defensive record (0.81x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.01. The same calculation in reverse, Helsingborg's attack versus Landskrona BoIS's defence, projects 1.04 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 17/17 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.3%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.5%), 0-1 (11.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Helsingborg Win
34%
2.93
30%
3.30
36%
2.81
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
13.3%
Away win
1 – 0
12.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.01
Landskrona BoIS xG
Total xG
2.06
1.04
Helsingborg xG
2.93
34%
Home win
3.30
30%
Draw
2.81
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.42
59%
BTTS No
1.70
Clean Sheet
35%
2.84
36%
2.76
Win to Nil
12%
8.33
13%
7.75
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.8 | 13.3 | 7.0 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.9 | 13.5 | 7.1 | 2.5 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 6.9 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 2.3 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Landskrona BoIS vs Helsingborg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.3%.
How many goals are Landskrona BoIS and Helsingborg expected to score?
The model projects 1.01 expected goals for Landskrona BoIS and 1.04 for Helsingborg, a combined total of 2.06.
How confident is the prediction model for Landskrona BoIS vs Helsingborg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Landskrona BoIS come into this having played 17 games, going 9W 4D 4L for 1.82 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-L-W-L. The sample for Landskrona BoIS is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Helsingborg sit at 1.82 PPG from 17 outings (9W 4D 4L), a run that reads L-W-W-W-D across their last five. The sample for Helsingborg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Landskrona BoIS on 1.82 PPG, Helsingborg on 1.82. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Landskrona BoIS's home form reads 6W 2D 0L across 8 games on their own ground, a 2.50 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.82 PPG overall — Landskrona BoIS are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Helsingborg have taken 1.88 points per game from 8 outings (4W 3D 1L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Landskrona BoIS come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Landskrona BoIS are averaging 1.59 goals scored and 1.12 conceded per game recently; Helsingborg are on 1.47 scored and 0.71 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Landskrona BoIS have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games; Helsingborg in 24%.
Defensively: Helsingborg in 59% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 17 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Landskrona BoIS
Blended
Helsingborg
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Landskrona BoIS and Helsingborg in coming into this match?
Landskrona BoIS have gone 9W 4D 4L in their last 17 games (1.82 PPG), while Helsingborg have gone 9W 4D 4L in their last 17 (1.82 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Landskrona BoIS at home or Helsingborg away?
Landskrona BoIS's home record (2.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Landskrona BoIS at home: 2.50 PPG; Helsingborg away: 1.88 PPG.
Have Landskrona BoIS or Helsingborg been keeping clean sheets recently?
Landskrona BoIS have kept a clean sheet in 29% of their recent games, Helsingborg in 59%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
9 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. The two were last together as recently as 11 June 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 11 Jun 2026, when Landskrona BoIS won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Landskrona BoIS's record when hosting Helsingborg specifically: 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
4
Landskrona BoIS
2
Draws
3
Helsingborg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Landskrona BoIS and Helsingborg?
From 9 meetings on record, Landskrona BoIS have won 4, Helsingborg have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Landskrona BoIS and Helsingborg last play each other?
They last met on 11 June 2026, when Helsingborg 0-3 Landskrona BoIS.
Who has won more matches between Landskrona BoIS and Helsingborg?
Landskrona BoIS have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Landskrona BoIS see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Helsingborg see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Landskrona BoIS 62%, Helsingborg 12% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (Landskrona BoIS) and 38% (Helsingborg).
On the defensive side: Landskrona BoIS keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Helsingborg in 75%; Helsingborg in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Landskrona BoIS home games / Helsingborg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Landskrona BoIS play Helsingborg?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 62% of Landskrona BoIS's recent matches and 12% of Helsingborg's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Landskrona BoIS vs Helsingborg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Landskrona BoIS's recent games and 38% of Helsingborg's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Prediction vindicated as Helsingborg edge out Landskrona BoIS 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Helsingborg beat Landskrona BoIS 0-1 at Landskrona Idrottsplats, Regular Season - 18, in the Superettan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Landskrona BoIS 1.01 xG and Helsingborg 1.04 xG, a combined 2.06. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Landskrona BoIS fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Landskrona BoIS attack 1.14 / defence 0.97 against Helsingborg attack 1.05 / defence 0.81, drawn from 17/17 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Landskrona BoIS 34% | Draw 30% | Helsingborg 36%, with Helsingborg to win its most likely call at 36%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 61% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Landskrona BoIS 47%, Helsingborg 41%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Landskrona BoIS's trading profile (17 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not.
Helsingborg's trading profile (17 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 24% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 59% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Landskrona BoIS 1.82 PPG, Helsingborg 1.82 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Helsingborg win broke the near-deadlock. Landskrona BoIS (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.75 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.