Landskrona BoIS 0-2 Gefle IF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Landskrona BoIS (63%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Landskrona BoIS face Gefle IF.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Landskrona BoIS host Gefle IF at Landskrona Idrottsplats in Superettan, Regular Season - 16. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 28 July 2024 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Landskrona BoIS — All Games: 7W 2D 1L from 10 Superettan outings this season, averaging 2.30 points per game. Last five: W W W W D. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Landskrona BoIS, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Landskrona BoIS's home record at Landskrona Idrottsplats: 6W 2D 2L from 10 Superettan appearances (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Across all Superettan games this season, Gefle IF have recorded 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L L L D D. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.80. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Gefle IF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Gefle IF have gone 0W 5D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Landskrona BoIS carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.10 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.30 vs 1.20. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, Landskrona BoIS have won 2, Gefle IF 0, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 3 meetings have averaged 3.3 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 15 Jun 2024, ended 2–1 with Landskrona BoIS winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.3 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Landskrona BoIS in-play and half-time data (45 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games).
Gefle IF in-play and half-time data (45 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Landskrona BoIS 60% and Gefle IF 60% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Landskrona BoIS 60% | Gefle IF 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Landskrona BoIS 2.59 xG and Gefle IF 1.40 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Landskrona BoIS attack 1.360 / defence 1.098 | Gefle IF attack 1.131 / defence 1.324. League average goals — home 1.438 / away 1.124. Landskrona BoIS carry an above-average attack strength of 1.360 — their λ of 2.59 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Gefle IF bring a strong defensive rating of 1.324 — this is suppressing Landskrona BoIS's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 45 Landskrona BoIS games / 45 Gefle IF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Landskrona BoIS 63% | Draw 18% | Gefle IF 19%. Fair-value odds: Landskrona BoIS 1.59 | Draw 5.56 | Gefle IF 5.26. The model has a clear lean to Landskrona BoIS (63%) — a 44pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 76% | BTTS probability 70% | Total xG 3.98. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 76% — a total xG of 3.98 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 70% reflects that both xG figures (2.59 / 1.40) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Landskrona BoIS are the pick at 63% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 18% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.98 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 76% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.3 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 70% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Landskrona BoIS 50% | Gefle IF 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Landskrona BoIS vs Gefle IF | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Landskrona Idrottsplats • Kick-off: Sunday 28 Jul 2024, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Landskrona BoIS 63% | Draw 18% | Gefle IF 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 76% | BTTS 70% | xG Landskrona BoIS 2.59 / Gefle IF 1.40 • Poisson strength factors: Landskrona BoIS attack 1.360 / def 1.098 | Gefle IF attack 1.131 / def 1.324 | league avg home 1.438 / away 1.124 • Poisson stance: Landskrona BoIS (63%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.59
Landskrona BoIS xG
Expected Goals
1.40
Gefle IF xG
70%
BTTS
91%
Over 1.5
76%
Over 2.5
56%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Landskrona BoIS vs Gefle IF kick off?
Landskrona BoIS vs Gefle IF kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 28 July 2024 at Landskrona Idrottsplats.
What was the final score in Landskrona BoIS vs Gefle IF?
Landskrona BoIS 0 - 2 Gefle IF.
Where is Landskrona BoIS vs Gefle IF being played?
The match is being played at Landskrona Idrottsplats.
What competition is Landskrona BoIS vs Gefle IF part of?
Landskrona BoIS vs Gefle IF is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Landskrona BoIS vs Gefle IF?
Our statistical model gives Landskrona BoIS a 63% chance of winning, Gefle IF a 19% chance, and a 18% chance of a draw — making Landskrona BoIS the favourite.
Will both teams score in Landskrona BoIS vs Gefle IF?
Our model estimates a 70% probability that both Landskrona BoIS and Gefle IF will score (BTTS).
Will Landskrona BoIS vs Gefle IF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 76%.
What is the head-to-head record between Landskrona BoIS and Gefle IF?
Record (3 meetings): Landskrona BoIS 2W | Draws 1 | Gefle IF 0W.
What form are Landskrona BoIS and Gefle IF in?
Landskrona BoIS (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-W-W-D. Gefle IF (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Landskrona BoIS's attack at 1.36x the league average against Gefle IF's defence at 1.32x — combine the two and it projects 2.59 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Gefle IF's attack versus Landskrona BoIS's defence, projects 1.40 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 45/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-1 carries the highest individual probability at 8.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (7.6%), 3-1 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 24% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Landskrona BoIS Win
63%
1.59
18%
5.52
19%
5.29
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
8.7%
Home win
Most likely
3 – 1
7.5%
Home win
1 – 1
6.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.59
Landskrona BoIS xG
Total xG
3.98
1.40
Gefle IF xG
1.59
63%
Home win
5.52
18%
Draw
5.29
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
91%
Over 1.5
1.10
9%
Under 1.5
11.11
76%
Over 2.5
1.32
24%
Under 2.5
4.17
56%
Over 3.5
1.79
44%
Under 3.5
2.27
37%
Over 4.5
2.70
63%
Under 4.5
1.59
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
70%
BTTS Yes
1.43
30%
BTTS No
3.31
Clean Sheet
25%
4.04
8%
13.32
Win to Nil
16%
6.41
1%
70.46
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.9 | 2.6 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 4.8 | 6.7 | 4.7 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.2 | 8.7 | 6.1 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 5.4 | 7.5 | 5.2 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 3.5 | 4.9 | 3.4 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 1.8 | 2.5 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Landskrona BoIS vs Gefle IF?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.7%.
How many goals are Landskrona BoIS and Gefle IF expected to score?
The model projects 2.59 expected goals for Landskrona BoIS and 1.40 for Gefle IF, a combined total of 3.98.
How confident is the prediction model for Landskrona BoIS vs Gefle IF?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 63%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Landskrona BoIS come into this having played 45 games, going 21W 10D 14L for 1.62 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-W-D. The sample for Landskrona BoIS is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Gefle IF sit at 1.16 PPG from 45 outings (12W 16D 17L), a run that reads L-L-L-D-D across their last five. The sample for Gefle IF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Landskrona BoIS carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.46 PPG clear of Gefle IF — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Landskrona BoIS's home form reads 12W 5D 5L across 22 games on their own ground, a 1.86 PPG return.
Away from home, Gefle IF have taken 0.68 points per game from 22 outings (2W 9D 11L). That's a step down from their 1.16 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Gefle IF's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Landskrona BoIS come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Landskrona BoIS are averaging 1.53 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game recently; Gefle IF are on 1.33 scored and 1.60 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Landskrona BoIS have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games; Gefle IF in 60%.
Last 45 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Landskrona BoIS
Blended
Gefle IF
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Landskrona BoIS and Gefle IF in coming into this match?
Landskrona BoIS have gone 21W 10D 14L in their last 45 games (1.62 PPG), while Gefle IF have gone 12W 16D 17L in their last 45 (1.16 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Landskrona BoIS at home or Gefle IF away?
Landskrona BoIS's home record (1.86 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Landskrona BoIS at home: 1.86 PPG; Gefle IF away: 0.68 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Landskrona BoIS and Gefle IF runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to April 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. It has been a while since the last meeting — 28 July 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Landskrona BoIS's record when hosting Gefle IF specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Landskrona BoIS
1
Draws
1
Gefle IF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Landskrona BoIS and Gefle IF?
From 4 meetings on record, Landskrona BoIS have won 2, Gefle IF have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Landskrona BoIS and Gefle IF last play each other?
They last met on 28 July 2024, when Landskrona BoIS 0-2 Gefle IF.
Who has won more matches between Landskrona BoIS and Gefle IF?
Landskrona BoIS have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Landskrona BoIS are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Gefle IF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Landskrona BoIS 59%, Gefle IF 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 59% (Landskrona BoIS) and 54% (Gefle IF). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 32% and 32% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Landskrona BoIS keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Gefle IF in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Landskrona BoIS home games / Gefle IF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Landskrona BoIS play Gefle IF?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 59% of Landskrona BoIS's games and 59% of Gefle IF's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Landskrona BoIS vs Gefle IF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 59% of Landskrona BoIS's matches and 54% of Gefle IF's.
Do Landskrona BoIS and Gefle IF tend to score early?
Landskrona BoIS have had a goal before half-time in 82% of their recent matches, Gefle IF in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Gefle IF cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Landskrona BoIS.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Gefle IF beat Landskrona BoIS 0-2 at Landskrona Idrottsplats, Regular Season - 16, in the Superettan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Landskrona BoIS 2.59 xG and Gefle IF 1.40 xG, a combined 3.98. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Landskrona BoIS fell 2.6 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Landskrona BoIS attack 1.36 / defence 1.10 against Gefle IF attack 1.13 / defence 1.32, drawn from 45/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Landskrona BoIS 63% | Draw 18% | Gefle IF 19%, with Landskrona BoIS to win its most likely call at 63%. Instead the game produced a Gefle IF win, an outcome the model had rated at just 19% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 76%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 91% and landed. Over 3.5 was 56% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 70% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Landskrona BoIS 60%, Gefle IF 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Landskrona BoIS's trading profile (45 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.
Gefle IF's trading profile (45 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Landskrona BoIS arrived the stronger side — 1.62 PPG against 1.16. Form was overturned, with Gefle IF winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Landskrona BoIS (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.77 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.18 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Gefle IF (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.64 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.