Jonkopings Sodra 1-1 Ostersunds FK – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Jonkopings Sodra at 44%, yet in-form Ostersunds FK provide a compelling counter-argument — this Jonkopings Sodra vs Ostersunds FK fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Ostersunds FK make the trip to Stadsparksvallen to face Jonkopings Sodra in Superettan, Regular Season - 25. The match kicks off on Monday 2 October 2023 at 18:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Jonkopings Sodra have collected 0.40 PPG across 10 Superettan outings this season: 1W 1D 8L. Last five: L L L W L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 2.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Jonkopings Sodra, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Jonkopings Sodra's home record at Stadsparksvallen: 5W 1D 4L from 10 Superettan appearances (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.40 — Jonkopings Sodra are significantly better at Stadsparksvallen than their overall form suggests.
Ostersunds FK (all games): 2W 7D 1L across 10 Superettan outings this term — 1.30 points per game. Last five: D D D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Ostersunds FK, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Ostersunds FK have gone 2W 4D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Ostersunds FK are 0.90 PPG clear of Jonkopings Sodra in recent Superettan fixtures (1.30 vs 0.40). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Jonkopings Sodra lead 1W to 0W over the last 3 encounters, with 2 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 3 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 6 May 2023, ended 3–3 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Jonkopings Sodra goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (54 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 74% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
Ostersunds FK goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (54 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Jonkopings Sodra 70% and Ostersunds FK 57% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Jonkopings Sodra 65% | Ostersunds FK 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Jonkopings Sodra 1.54 xG and Ostersunds FK 1.20 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Jonkopings Sodra attack 0.955 / defence 1.122 | Ostersunds FK attack 0.831 / defence 0.989. League average goals — home 1.630 / away 1.287. Data: 54 Jonkopings Sodra games / 54 Ostersunds FK games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Jonkopings Sodra 44% | Draw 28% | Ostersunds FK 28%. Fair-value odds: Jonkopings Sodra 2.27 | Draw 3.57 | Ostersunds FK 3.57. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.74. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.74 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Jonkopings Sodra at 44% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Ostersunds FK (1.30 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Jonkopings Sodra if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.74 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 52% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Jonkopings Sodra 80% | Ostersunds FK 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Jonkopings Sodra vs Ostersunds FK | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Stadsparksvallen • Kick-off: Monday 2 Oct 2023, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Jonkopings Sodra 44% | Draw 28% | Ostersunds FK 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 56% | xG Jonkopings Sodra 1.54 / Ostersunds FK 1.20 • Poisson strength factors: Jonkopings Sodra attack 0.955 / def 1.122 | Ostersunds FK attack 0.831 / def 0.989 | league avg home 1.630 / away 1.287 • Poisson stance: Jonkopings Sodra (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.54
Jonkopings Sodra xG
Expected Goals
1.20
Ostersunds FK xG
56%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Jonkopings Sodra vs Ostersunds FK kick off?
Jonkopings Sodra vs Ostersunds FK kicked off at 18:00 on Monday 2 October 2023 at Stadsparksvallen.
What was the final score in Jonkopings Sodra vs Ostersunds FK?
Jonkopings Sodra 1 - 1 Ostersunds FK.
Where is Jonkopings Sodra vs Ostersunds FK being played?
The match is being played at Stadsparksvallen.
What competition is Jonkopings Sodra vs Ostersunds FK part of?
Jonkopings Sodra vs Ostersunds FK is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Jonkopings Sodra vs Ostersunds FK?
Our statistical model gives Jonkopings Sodra a 44% chance of winning, Ostersunds FK a 28% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Jonkopings Sodra the favourite.
Will both teams score in Jonkopings Sodra vs Ostersunds FK?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Jonkopings Sodra and Ostersunds FK will score (BTTS).
Will Jonkopings Sodra vs Ostersunds FK have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Jonkopings Sodra and Ostersunds FK?
Record (3 meetings): Jonkopings Sodra 1W | Draws 2 | Ostersunds FK 0W.
What form are Jonkopings Sodra and Ostersunds FK in?
Jonkopings Sodra (all comps): 1W-1D-8L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-L-L-W-L. Ostersunds FK (all comps): 2W-7D-1L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-D-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Jonkopings Sodra's attacking strength (0.95x league average) is weighed against Ostersunds FK's defensive record (0.99x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.54. Flip it around — Ostersunds FK's attack (0.83x) against Jonkopings Sodra's defence (1.12x) — and the away total comes out at 1.20.
These ratings are built from 54/54 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.5%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.2%), 1-0 (8.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Jonkopings Sodra Win
44%
2.29
28%
3.55
28%
3.55
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.9%
Home win
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.54
Jonkopings Sodra xG
Total xG
2.74
1.20
Ostersunds FK xG
2.29
44%
Home win
3.55
28%
Draw
3.55
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.77
44%
BTTS No
2.29
Clean Sheet
30%
3.32
21%
4.66
Win to Nil
13%
7.61
6%
16.55
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.5 | 7.7 | 4.7 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.9 | 11.9 | 7.2 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.6 | 9.2 | 5.5 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 4.7 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.8 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Jonkopings Sodra vs Ostersunds FK?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Jonkopings Sodra and Ostersunds FK expected to score?
The model projects 1.54 expected goals for Jonkopings Sodra and 1.20 for Ostersunds FK, a combined total of 2.74.
How confident is the prediction model for Jonkopings Sodra vs Ostersunds FK?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 54 outings, Jonkopings Sodra have picked up 1.19 PPG on a 16W 16D 22L record — L-L-L-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Jonkopings Sodra is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Ostersunds FK's form line: 15W 21D 18L from 54 games, 1.22 PPG, last five D-D-D-L-W. The sample for Ostersunds FK is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.19 PPG for Jonkopings Sodra against 1.22 for Ostersunds FK. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Jonkopings Sodra have posted 1.41 PPG from 27 outings (11W 5D 11L).
On the road, Ostersunds FK have gone 5W 10D 12L from 27 away games — 0.93 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Jonkopings Sodra come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Jonkopings Sodra are averaging 1.44 goals scored and 1.74 conceded per game recently; Ostersunds FK are on 1.22 scored and 1.33 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Jonkopings Sodra have seen both teams score in 70% of their recent games.
Last 54 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Jonkopings Sodra
Blended
Ostersunds FK
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Jonkopings Sodra and Ostersunds FK in coming into this match?
Jonkopings Sodra have gone 16W 16D 22L in their last 54 games (1.19 PPG), while Ostersunds FK have gone 15W 21D 18L in their last 54 (1.22 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Jonkopings Sodra at home or Ostersunds FK away?
Jonkopings Sodra's home record (1.41 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Jonkopings Sodra at home: 1.41 PPG; Ostersunds FK away: 0.93 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to July 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. It has been a while since the last meeting — 2 October 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
The last 3 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Jonkopings Sodra have gone 1W 1D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Ostersunds FK — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Jonkopings Sodra
3
Draws
0
Ostersunds FK
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Jonkopings Sodra and Ostersunds FK?
From 4 meetings on record, Jonkopings Sodra have won 1, Ostersunds FK have won 0, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Jonkopings Sodra and Ostersunds FK last play each other?
They last met on 2 October 2023, when Jonkopings Sodra 1-1 Ostersunds FK.
Who has won more matches between Jonkopings Sodra and Ostersunds FK?
Jonkopings Sodra have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Jonkopings Sodra are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Ostersunds FK see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Jonkopings Sodra 74%, Ostersunds FK 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 70% (Jonkopings Sodra) and 37% (Ostersunds FK).
On the defensive side: Ostersunds FK in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Jonkopings Sodra home games / Ostersunds FK away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Jonkopings Sodra play Ostersunds FK?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 74% of Jonkopings Sodra's games and 52% of Ostersunds FK's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Jonkopings Sodra vs Ostersunds FK usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 70% of Jonkopings Sodra's recent games and 37% of Ostersunds FK's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Jonkopings Sodra and Ostersunds FK tend to score early?
Jonkopings Sodra have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Ostersunds FK in 59% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Jonkopings Sodra and Ostersunds FK share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadsparksvallen, Regular Season - 25, as Jonkopings Sodra and Ostersunds FK drew 1-1 in the Superettan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Jonkopings Sodra 1.54 xG and Ostersunds FK 1.20 xG, a combined 2.74. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jonkopings Sodra attack 0.95 / defence 1.12 against Ostersunds FK attack 0.83 / defence 0.99, drawn from 54/54 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Jonkopings Sodra 44% | Draw 28% | Ostersunds FK 28%, with Jonkopings Sodra to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jonkopings Sodra 65%, Ostersunds FK 43%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Jonkopings Sodra's trading profile (54 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did.
Ostersunds FK's trading profile (54 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Jonkopings Sodra 1.19 PPG, Ostersunds FK 1.22 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.